Troy Teslike

Actual numbers are in: Tesla delivered 497,099 cars in Q3. My estimate was 3.2% too low, while the analyst consensus missed by 10.9%.

My Estimate: 481,000
My Error (units): -16,099
My Error (%): -3.2%

Analyst Consensus: 443,079
Consensus Error (units): -54,020
Consensus Error (%): -10.9%

Tesla is expected to release its Q3 2025 production and delivery numbers tomorrow. When markets are open, as they will be tomorrow, the numbers are released at around 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time.

Hi everyone, here are the final Tesla delivery estimates for Q3 2025. For reference, deliveries were 462,890 units in Q3 2024.

• My estimate: 481,000
• Analyst consensus: 443,079 (from Tesla’s survey of 25 analysts, known as the Company-Compiled Consensus, published on Sep 26)

See bsky.app/profile/troy...

Yes, but I can’t access the direct messages feature anymore. This applies to all users in the UK. I’ll probably use Bluesky much less from now on, since there’s little reason to build up a following here without DMs.

I have this data until 7 Jun 2025, but the chart ends at the end of March 2025 because I post this content on Patreon and don't want to share too much information.

OK. See bsky.app/profile/troy...

Hi everyone. Here’s my detailed calculation for Tesla's Q2 2025 earnings:

Non-GAAP EPS:
• My Estimate: $0.42

The last two columns show my estimate and the analyst consensus. The actual numbers will be released in a few hours.

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... Q1 2025 that they sold for the same price as the Long Range AWD version (shown in blue).

You can also see the gradual price cuts throughout Q1 2025, as Tesla cleared out the older Model Y Classic versions before launching the Juniper design refresh.

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Hi everyone. The chart shows Model Y sales prices in the US based on DMV data. Each dot represents a vehicle, and each color shows a different trim level.

The most interesting part is that some Performance versions (shown in red) were so heavily discounted at the end of Q4 2024 and ...

Hi everyone. The chart shows actual Tesla sales in Europe, based on vehicle registration data from 25 countries.

In Q2 2025, Tesla sold 55,924 units, down 29% year-over-year from 78,417 units in Q2 2024.

Tesla has been struggling with brand image issues caused by political controversy.

• $7,500 federal tax credit ends after Sep 30, 2025.
• Regulatory credits in the US end tomorrow.

The Big Beautiful Bill cancels both of them.

Sawyer Merritt on X: "I just spent hours reviewing the final version of Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” which he will sign into law in the coming days. There's a lot of important stuff related to EVs, renewable energy, and more. Here's everything you need to know: • $7,500 EV credit for new vehicles: https://t.co/CG49KzsQJQ" / X I just spent hours reviewing the final version of Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” which he will sign into law in the coming days. There's a lot of important stuff related to EVs, renewable energy, and more. Here's everything you need to know: • $7,500 EV credit for new vehicles: https://t.co/CG49KzsQJQ

Check out Sawyer's explanation. I agree with his interpretation. I also looked into this topic using Perplexity AI.

x.com/SawyerMerrit...

Tesla sells these credits at a discount compared to the fine, making them the cheaper option. The new bill reduces the fine to zero, removing the need to buy credits.

As a result, Tesla’s US regulatory credits will become worthless, though they will continue to earn credits in Europe and China

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Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” will eliminate Tesla’s US regulatory credits, also known as ZEV credits.

Under the current system, automakers failing to meet zero-emission vehicle quotas must either pay a fine or purchase credits from companies like Tesla, which generate excess credits.

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The table on the left shows my error rate. The one on the right shows the analyst consensus. My error rate is still lower than the consensus, but the gap is narrowing. I need more accurate results going forward, which means understanding what went wrong and finding ways to improve it.

For maximum transparency, here’s my delivery error rate versus the analyst consensus (based on Tesla’s survey, also known as the company-compiled consensus) over the past 16 quarters.

Today’s result was my largest miss in the last four years.

Tesla deliveries were down by 50,129 units in Q1 and 59,834 units in Q2 2025 year-over-year. Q3 will also be challenging, as last year’s Q3 was strong with 462,890 units delivered.

However, Tesla may soon launch a stripped-down Model Y, which it hopes will improve sales.

Tesla deliveries fell 13.5% year-over-year in Q2 2025, the largest decline in the company's history. This follows a 13.0% drop in Q1 2025.

Still, the decline this quarter was smaller than many, including myself, had expected.

This is my initial calculation for Tesla’s regional deliveries in Q2 2025. I’ll update the table as more registration data becomes available over the next few days.

Both deliveries and production were much higher than I estimated. I was expecting a 19.8% year-over-year decline, but sales fell by only 13.5% compared to last year's Q2.

Tesla Deliveries in Q2 2025:
• My estimate: 356,000
• Analyst consensus: 385,086
• Actual: 384,122
• Q2 2024 deliveries: 443,956

July 2, 2025, between 9:00 and 9:10 am Eastern Time.

Here are my final Tesla delivery estimates for this quarter. I’m aiming for a lower error rate than my 3.0% average over the last 12 quarters.

Tesla Delivery Estimates for Q2 2025:
• My estimate: 356,000
• Analyst consensus: 385,086
• Q2 2024 deliveries: 443,956

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However, Tesla continues to operate 35 stores across the country (source: www.tesla.com/findus/list/...), keeping SG&A costs high at a time when the company appears to be on track to report GAAP losses starting in Q1 2026.

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Tesla is struggling to adapt to the new reality of lower sales. For example, sales in Canada have dropped to nearly zero, largely due to political controversy (source: www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...).

Tesla doesn’t report Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X sales separately. Instead, it combines all three into a single number.
That number was 23,640 units in Q4 2024 but fell to 12,881 units in Q1 2025 due to weak demand. Based on the latest data, the decline is expected to continue this quarter.

Today's update on Patreon (patreon.com/posts/132143...) includes DMV VIN data up to June 25. I use it to estimate Tesla’s production.

Over the last 12 quarters, my error rate has been 1.4% for production and 3.0% for deliveries.

However, I’ll post my final estimates on June 30th here as well.

In the first half of the year, Tesla sold

• 345,088 cars in North America in 2023, and
• 313,727 in 2024, a drop of 31,361 units.

The decline continues in 2025, but this time, the drop will be much larger than 31,000 or even 40,000 units.

Tesla's Global inventory increased from 77,000 at the end of Q4 2024 to 101,000 at the end of Q1 2025. A similar increase is expected this quarter, with production running higher than deliveries because of limited demand.

The red line shows Tesla’s China sales this quarter based on weekly car insurance data. After 12 weeks, sales are lower than in Q1, when Tesla blamed the drop on the Model Y Juniper production changeover.

Quarter-to-Date Sales (Weeks 1–12):
• Q1 2025: 116,119 units
• Q2 2025: 109,520 units