Ferric Fang, MD

Dynamics of natural selection preceding human viral epidemics and pandemics Phylogenetic-based selection analysis of viral evolution before and after spillover reveals that viral adaptation in the host reservoir is not a necessary precursor of novel zoonotic virus epidemics and pandemics, including SARS-CoV-2. In contrast, the 1977 reemergence of H1N1 influenza A virus was preceded by selection consistent with laboratory passage.

Now online! Dynamics of natural selection preceding human viral epidemics and pandemics

Multiple vaccines at once not linked to increased risk for reactions A recent study presented at the American Academy of Allergy, Asthma, and Immunology Annual Meeting found no significant difference in adverse reactions among children receiving multiple vaccines simul...

Multiple vaccines at once not linked to increased risk for adverse reactions www.skepticalraptor.com/skepticalrap... via @skepticalraptor.bsky.social

‘The Most Dangerous Man in the World’ Mojtaba Khamenei, a candidate to succeed his father as Iran’s supreme leader, is no reformer.

Now would be a good time to read @graemewood.bsky.social on Mojtaba Khamenei:

www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

“The footage would appear to contradict Trump’s claim that it was an an Iranian missile that hit the school… The US is the only participant in the war that is known to have Tomahawk missiles.”

Bombed a school & then, 30 mins later, bombed it again—ensuring any kids who survived & any rescue workers would be killed

“People were pulling out children’s arms and legs. People were pulling out severed heads”

One of the worst war crimes in modern history.

It was a school—not an IRGC base.

5 lessons from Vinay Prasad's turbulent tenure at the FDA Vinay Prasad's unique ability to attract criticism — even when his bosses, including the president, wanted him to keep his head low — did him in at the FDA.

Vinay Prasad's unique ability to attract criticism — even when his bosses, including the president, wanted him to keep his head low — did him in at the FDA. www.statnews.com/2026/03/08/v...

New post, on whether I could get Claude Code to complete a data task that had taken me AGES a decade ago…

kucharski.substack.com/p/how-much-t...

Perfect encapsulation of the MAGA & MAHA hero, RFK Jr ally, & Great Barrington Declaration kook Jay Bhattacharya:

"It’s unfortunate that he spends a significant amount of time either on rightwing podcasts or addressing rightwing conventions, & maybe finds time for NIH in between those appearances”

It's extremely clear that the US doesn't really have an objective here except to inflict maximum pain, and attacking water supply is going to end catastrophically for the entire region. It's not just a war crime, it's approaching a crime against humanity.

That story had me in stitches.

I hope that next years appropriations banish multi-year funding. This year a threat from Vought has resulted in MYF kept to last year's levels, which is a disaster and probably the single thing most responsible for this.

The data also reinforce a message that should be clear: American leadership in science and medical research requires far more than getting across the line on top-line budget negotiations and will require continued vigilance to track how HHS treats applications and existing awards.

except we can’t agree on who the bad ones are

It’s not even the top 1% of labs, because it’s entirely stochastic at the 1st percentile. They’re all good, but likely no better than anything else in the top 10%.

I knew that, to please Trump, Jay Bhattacharya’s NIH canceled “DEI grants” (including at Duke, such as studies on the health of transgender people)—but I have not been following another scandal: the cancelation of “DEI grants” from the NEH

🎁 link for full NYT story:

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/07/a...

They blew up an elementary school Tom
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...

Introducing Angie Farella - RFK Jr.'s Latest Addition to ACIP Explore the controversial views of Angie Farella, a member of the ACIP Committee, and her strange views on COVID, measles, and vaccines.

Introducing Angie Farella - RFK Jr.'s Latest Addition to ACIP: she wanted to use kids as buffers for COVID because she thought oher coronaviruses made them immune, she wanted to treat COVID with flu antivirals, and more. vaxopedia.org/2026/03/04/i... via @aboutpediatrics.bsky.social

saramohrhair: Where do I find a pediatrician that doesn't push vaccines? matt.keller.33: Look at your states medical boards. Find the pediatrician associated with the most childhood deaths. That's your doctor.

No notes

Had to doublecheck the date on this

Here is the "effective payline" for each institute, estimated (by Claude) as the percentile where one can expect 80% probability of funding from a logistic regression fit. The effective payline has gone from a historic ~12% to 6% in 2025.

https://www.annenbergpublicpolicycenter.org/stark-divide-americans-more-confident-in-career-scientists-at-u-s-health-agencies-than-leaders/

A quick email before I head of to get ready for the @standupforscience.bsky.social rally.

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Americans trust Fauci over RFK Jr. and career scientists over Trump officials RFK Jr. has tried hard to villainize Fauci. Americans still trust Fauci more.

Vinay Prasads lasting legacy

What We Forget About Covid Will Shape the Next Pandemic As the pandemic recedes, our collective memory is softening the fear and chaos. That shift could determine how we handle the next crisis.

Refrigerated trucks. Mass graves. ICUs beyond capacity.

Six years on, some call it exaggerated — even as transmission, #LongCovid and system strain persist.

What we forget about #Covid will shape the next pandemic.

My latest for Bloomberg's Weekend Edition via 🎁🔗⬇️
tinyurl.com/yk93f7k2

WAIT THEY CAN FUCKING DRIVE NOW

More reporting - Prasad:

🔹️overruled career scientists on vax approvals;

🔹️rejected treatments of rare diseases over pleas of "patients who have few options and biotech companies invested in developing cures";

🔹️opposed public advisory panel meetings for drugs

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/06/h...

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Graph of award probability of R35 and R01 from NIH factbook as a function of review rank percentile. As is apparent, 2025 is a significant departure, with lower award probabilities at all scores <40 and significant departures from norm, where even being in the top 10% is no longer a nearly certain indicator of success. Data source: https://report.nih.gov/nihdatabook/report/302

The data is in: the NIH goalposts have shifted.

What were once almost certain fundable scores have become coin flips and what used to be likely grants have become aspirational, leading to fewer awards.

Another manifestation of how HHS policies have led to fewer awards and less science.

FDA vaccines chief Vinay Prasad to step down in April The head of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's vaccines and biologics unit, Dr. Vinay Prasad, ​will leave the agency at the end of April, ‌a spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Health and Hum...

Hey, great news gang! Vinay Prasad is out at the FDA.

Again.

Let’s hope it sticks this time.

Opinion seems pretty evenly divided.

As a friend of mine has been putting it, if war is what teaches Americans geography, Donald Trump is what teaches Americans how our government & economy work