Stefan Wolff

Trump’s heated White House meeting with Zelensky shows how well Putin is playing the US president It looked as if the US might supply Ukraine with game-changing new weapons. Then the Russian president phoned Donald Trump.

Great piece from @stefwolff.bsky.social on @ConversationUK. Thanks to @alastaircampbell2.bsky.social and @rory-stewart.bsky.social for the mention. As ever, Stefan's analysis of thie complex and fast-moving issue is spot on.
theconversation.com/trumps-heate...

Despite another week of diplomatic whiplash, an end to the fighting in Ukraine is not in sight By Richard Whitman & Stefan Wolff

As Trump flip-flops and the coalition of the willing is unlikely to go beyond securing Ukraine’s immediate survival, a credible pathway to ending the war with a just and stable peace is still lacking -- my latest analysis with @rgwhitman.bsky.social for @navvortex.bsky.social : bit.ly/43IOKP9

Three key take-aways from the Trump-Putin-Zelensky diplomatic flurry over the past few weeks: bit.ly/3KY7HqK

Unsurprisingly, Putin gets Trump to pivot again: bit.ly/42NC9Kd

Donald Trump would have been an unsuitable choice for the 2025 Nobel peace prize – but he may be a more serious contender in 2026 The peace prize rules made it hard for the US president to win this year. But that doesn’t rule him out for 2026.

Following the announcement of this year’s #NobelPeacePrize winner, María Corina Machado, leader of Venzuela’s opposition movement, PSA Trustee @stefwolff.bsky.social reflects on the competition and controversies surrounding the prize @uk.theconversation.com

Recognising a Russian sphere of influence would most likely encourage dreams of further expansion in the Kremlin: bit.ly/4hfvKgV

Could Dead Cat Diplomacy Actually Work? | Newstalk It was an extraordinary day in the Middle East. Hostages returned home to scenes of jubilation an...

I was interviewed yesterday by @newstalkfm.bsky.social on Trump's Middle East diplomacy www.newstalk.com/podcasts/new...

If Trump wants to be a serious contender for the 2026 Nobel peace Prize, he needs to double down on his peace-making efforts and prevent his grandiose claims from being proven wrong: bit.ly/4q1ntkN

Call for Papers - BASEES 2026 Annual Conference, University of Birmingham, 10-12 April 2026 — Basees

BASEES Call for Papers deadline extended to 24 October 2025! Join us at the University of Birmingham, 10-12 April 2026: basees.org/news-1/2025/....

Despite spending millions on vote buying and disinformation, Russia has not been able to turn Moldova into a country in which a majority of the population would want to jeopardise their European future: bit.ly/4nzhP7S

Time is running out for Europe to prevent Russia from broadening its war against Ukraine into a full-blown military confrontation with the west: my latest analysis with @rgwhitman.bsky.social: bit.ly/42e0qZB

Ukraine’s coalition of allies needs to be more than willing — it needs to get ready Russian provocations and Trump's latest pivot put yet more pressure on Europe.

Increasing Russian provocations and Trump wishing everyone ‘good luck’ mean that muddling through is no longer an option for Europe: bit.ly/3IDtdQy

Russian drones in Polish airspace (part 2): A provocation – and a test There is a real danger of the Ukraine war spilling over into NATO territory.

Beyond full-throated condemnation, the western response to the latest Russian escalation has been worryingly underwhelming: bit.ly/47ANron

Putin senses opportunities for Russia to be the dominant power in Europe — and the west’s lacklustre response to his latest provocation is hardly a deterrent: bit.ly/4gnWICy

If Trump doesn’t recognise the value of his country’s allies in managing the challenge that China clearly poses to the US, China’s sphere of influence may quickly extend far beyond Asia: bit.ly/4mJoLyt

As gay marriage is attacked in US, UK must not be complacent It’s easy to view the attempted rollback of rights as an American problem. But LGBTQ rights are at risk here, too

Great piece by my colleague @drcharlottegalpin.bsky.social for @opendemocracy.net: www.opendemocracy.net/en/us-far-ri...

Ukraine - Any Closer To Peace? | The Why Curve Lots of high-level diplomacy - handshakes for European leaders in the White House, the red-carpet for Putin in Alaska - but does any of this bring the end...

High level diplomacy in Washington and Alaska, but Ukraine is still under fire. So is peace any closer? @stefwolff.bsky.social @unibirmingham.bsky.social tells me and @phildobbie.bsky.social Donald Trump isn't prepared to do what's needed to end the conflict
whycurve.com/episode/ukra...

Likely statements at the upcoming SCO summit of how the spirit of Shanghai will shape a new international order rest on the false premise that a post-American international order will be a non-American order: my latest analysis for Navigating the Vortex: bit.ly/3UKuLuN

Trump boldly claimed that he knew exactly what he was doing — but that may not be enough without knowing and understanding what his counterpart in the Kremlin is up to: bit.ly/3Jm1fZM

Trump has left Alaska empty-handed and Putin with a big smile on his face: bit.ly/471jHRm

For all his deal-making bluster, Trump, unlike Kyiv’s European allies has yet to commit unequivocally to a just peace for Ukraine: bit.ly/4fCjgik

If he doesn't blink first, Trump can now strengthen Kyiv and weaken Moscow to achieve a just and sustainable peace agreement: bit.ly/3UeGHEP

Trump is a long way off from being the “president of peace” but may inch closer to becoming the “president of ceasefires”: bit.ly/45gVZxF

Lack of bandwidth in the White House is a self-inflicted opportunity lost — not only for the United States but also for the long-suffering people of Ukraine and the Middle East: bit.ly/3H4tk7c

Putin and Zelensky play for time Waiting for Trump’s ultimatum to run out won't get either side close to victory.

Continuing their war of attrition currently seems to be the second-best solution that Putin and Zelensky can agree on: www.navigatingthevortex.com/p/putin-and-...

Ukraine Recovery Conference 2025 emphasises challenges and costs of rebuilding the country The foundations for post-war recovery need to be built before the war ends.

As Trump seems to pivot towards to Ukraine, the social and economic costs of Putin’s war against Ukraine are still rising: bit.ly/3U94kyn

Despite superficial consensus at the Nato summit, the US has abandoned Ukraine But the lack of US commitment to containing Russia is as much a threat as an opportunity for Europe.

Recent European defence efforts will not turn the old continent into a military heavyweight overnight, but they will buy time to do so: bit.ly/4ny8Q70

A Nato summit agreement in The Hague on increased defence spending will give the alliance another lease of life, but it might be a short one: bit.ly/4kaPm5D

US policies have now become a major, and perhaps the decisive roadblock on the path to a just and sustainable peace because they enable both Moscow and Kyiv to dream of victory in a war that has become unwinnable: www.navigatingthevortex.com/p/talks-betw...

Is Germany becoming Europe’s new defence champion? www.navigatingthevortex.com/p/berlin-ste... via @navvortex.bsky.social