@paolavesco.bsky.social
Forecasting armed conflict @VIEWS. Love thinking about uncertainty. Only personal views here.
New publication alert! The article on the 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge is now out in JPR.
12.05.2025 08:50 โ ๐ 2 ๐ 1 ๐ฌ 1 ๐ 1Glad that our work caught the interest of El Tiempo. You can now read my interview with them here!
lnkd.in/dpdqbDEi
Originally published as a Norwegian language op-ed in VG late last month, but somehow still relevant. Now translated to English and on the PRIO blog:
blogs.prio.org/2025/03/amer...
Last week I had the pleasure to give a keynote lecture at the 13th Conference of the IAERE in lovely Rome, touching on climate, conflict, and how to enhance anticipatory action including through @viewsforecasting.org. Big thanks @raulcaruso.bsky.social for an excellent discussion.
24.02.2025 12:25 โ ๐ 3 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0
If we wait until the crime of genocide has been proved through fair trial -- because it is so difficult to prove beyond any doubt -- we risk giving more rights and protection to the perpetrators (Israel) than to the victims. We must act now.
Francesca Albanese and @jjensehaugen.bsky.social
A recent study in Nature Human Behaviour finds evidence of widespread trust in science globally (I was positively surprised)
The study places Italy at the bottom of the ranking, with lower trust in science than the global average (...sad but not surprised)
dx.doi.org/10.1038/s415...
This cannot be said enough:
Soon 45.000 confirmed killed in Gaza.
345.000 facing catastrophic levels of food insecurity.
On 28 January UNRWA, the main humanitarian actor, will be banned by Israel.
Kicking off my shiny account with a paper alert โจ
Out in World Development: a review of the literature on the impacts of violence across societal wellbeing and development, with a focus on what we know about how various impacts intertwine. A truly inter-disciplinary effort
doi.org/10.1016/j.wo...
