Rajiv Sethi

Rajiv Sethi (@rajivsethi) New post: Trading on Violence

On prediction markets, do follow @rajivsethi.bsky.social , see this , substack.com/@rajivsethi/...

Trading on Violence Insider trading on prediction markets is turning into a dog-bites-man type of story.

On Polymarket, transactions are visible but identities are not. This invites not only insider trading but also, as recent events suggest, potential betting directly on & profiting from geopolitical violence, as CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social explains

➡️ rajivsethi.substack.com/p/trading-on...

Trading on Violence Insider trading on prediction markets is turning into a dog-bites-man type of story.

New post: Trading on Violence

open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

I would love that! Only there for Thursday but there should be time (arrive Wednesday midnight leave Friday 7am). Let's coordinate by email..

I'll be giving the annual PPE lecture at @umich.edu next week in case you're in the area and would like to attend, details here:

share.google/NOT06HLeEuUo...

There often are hidden/unclear meanings conveyed by myriad forms of expression. In an info-rich environment, how to interpret that info in a world of diverse perspectives? @rajivsethi.bsky.social is delving into these thorny issues in a book, parts of which he discussed in his CASBS fellows seminar

YouTube video by PBS NewsHour Why prediction markets are thriving – and facing scrutiny

Informative @pbsnews.org segment on prediction markets

youtu.be/F80iYxdYxnw?...

Claude (Anthropic) on the Tariff Case There’s so much information now available at our fingertips, and we face increasingly frequent and challenging decisions regarding the allocation of time and attention.

On AI and the tariff case
open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social emitted exceedingly strong expert vibe (CASBS branding, no doubt) in his Thursday appearance on the PBS Newshour @pbsnews.org discussing prediction markets - a hot topic now but something Rajiv has studied for two decades

WATCH: www.youtube.com/live/2iBPeOZ...

PBS News Hour live episode, Feb. 19, 2026 YouTube video by PBS NewsHour

Joined @pbsnews.org with Paul Solman @justinwolfers.bsky.social and Yesha Yadav to discuss prediction markets:

www.youtube.com/live/2iBPeOZ...

Last week we hosted a terrific, wide-ranging conversation between 2005-06 CASBS fellow @jacksonmatthewo.bsky.social & current fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social for our podcast, Human Centered.

We'll release the episode in the spring. Until then, follow Human Centered on your favorite podcast app 🎙️🎧

The Second Coming The price of a contract that pays a dollar if Jesus Christ returns this year is currently trading at about four cents on Polymarket, up from about two cents in early January:

A very educational reminder from @rajivsethi.bsky.social that (and why, and how) markets --including prediction markets-- are rarely purely about information integration, and you read them as such at your own peril.

The price in a market referencing a miraculous or impossible event cannot possibly influence the objective probability of the event. But that's not the case for markets referencing, for example, elections, writes CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social in this crisp Substack post

The Second Coming The price of a contract that pays a dollar if Jesus Christ returns this year is currently trading at about four cents on Polymarket, up from about two cents in early January:

New post on markets that reference other markets
open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

Nice to see CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social represented in this list of notable research

The Latest Research on Cryptocurrency This list includes a selection of the latest research on cryptocurrency posted to SSRN in 2025. On the Impossibility of Transparent and Decentralized DeFi Trading by Hanna Halaburda (New York Unive…

Check out the latest from the SSRN #blog which includes a selection of the latest research on #cryptocurreny submitted to SSRN in 2025.

Read more: spkl.io/63324ASWYe

#AcademicChatter #crypto

PPE Lecture Series: Rajiv Sethi (Columbia) | U-M LSA Philosophy, Politics and Economics share.google/MonOg0POYBSd...

YouTube video by Rajiv Sethi CNN appearance with Michael Smerconish on January 17, 2026

Sometimes history is not a good guide to the future.

CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social explains why predictive markets may outperform polls & poll-based statistical models. Watch, then go to Rajiv's Substack essay on this: rajivsethi.substack.com/p/guessing-g...

www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YVc...

Guessing Games In my last post I discussed the case of a Polymarket trader who placed a series of well-timed bets on the ouster of Nicolás Maduro and made a profit of over $400,000 (on a $32,000 investment) in just ...

New post on prediction markets, spoofing, and forecasting accuracy:

open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

YouTube video by Michael Smerconish Wanna Bet? How Prediction Markets, Political Independents, & Weight-Loss Drugs Are Reshaping America

Short but substantive conversation with Smerconish today:

youtu.be/zQfdwRtQ2UM?...

Wanna Bet? How Prediction Markets, Political Independents, and Weight-Loss Drugs Are Reshaping America
Watch my full segment on YouTube & Subscribe: https://youtu.be/zQfdwRtQ2UM

YouTube video by Michael Smerconish Wanna Bet? How Prediction Markets, Political Independents, & Weight-Loss Drugs Are Reshaping America

Short but substantive conversation with @smerconish.bsky.social on prediction markets:

youtu.be/zQfdwRtQ2UM?...

4.2K views · 37 reactions | In the days before the shock nighttime raid when U.S. forces captured Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, one user on the “prediction market” Polymarket quietly set the whe... In the days before the shock nighttime raid when U.S. forces captured Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, one user on the “prediction market” Polymarket quietly set the wheels in motion to vastly...

Clip from a longer conversation with Smerconish a couple of days ago:

www.facebook.com/reel/1371138...

The Venezuela Windfall Major economic, political, and military decisions move asset prices, and those with foreknowledge of such things can make significant trading profits.

New post on (possible) insider trading on Polymarket

open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

Wordle and the Wisdom of Crowds I’m hoping that this post will have something useful to say about strategic diversity, meritocratic selection, and asset price bubbles.

New post on strategic diversity, meritocratic selection, asset price bubbles, and on online game:
open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

Encountering the Buddha I’ve mentioned in a couple of earlier posts that I spent ten formative years of my life—including all of my teenage years—in England.

New post on Salman Rushdie: Encountering the Buddha
open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

The Detection of Wash Trading Consider the following set of trades executed in quick succession on Polymarket at around 6pm on November 1, just a couple of days before polls opened on election day:

New post on the detection of wash trading:
open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

Accessible to all! ...my paper in Journal of Econ Perspectives on World Bank's 1993 East Asian "Miracle" report ("Too Much A Product of Its TIme?") (www.aeaweb.org/full_issue.p...). @cgdev.org @mclem.org @arvind2011.bsky.social @justsand.bsky.social

Not dunking on anyone here, just pointing out that one can't reason one's way to an answer to the accuracy question! Only data can answer.

The question of prediction market accuracy relative to other forecasting mechanisms such as statistical models can't be settled by logic, only by looking at historical performance across a range of events, some attempt to do so for elections here:

share.google/pEO6jR9PTwnP...