Andrew Morral

Specifically, homicides and car crash fatalities were trending down, but then reversed in 2015 and started rising. Between 2010 and 2014 opioid deaths increased by 0.6 (per 100k) per year, but jumped by 1.6 in 2015, and 3.5 in 2016. Depression has an earlier inflection by 2 years

Am I squinting too hard, or is there more structure to these trends than explained by COVID? In three of these series something happens around 2015, as well as peaking in 2021. Do you work with other series that look like this? Any grand theories?

CDC Wonder is down?

New Mexico AG Torrez: One of the biggest issues we face is gun violence. We haven’t seen any surge of federal law enforcement agencies dedicated to helping us reduce gun violence. What we’ve seen instead is a lot of the performative stuff — DHS going down to paint the wall to make it hotter.

These are undoubtedly underestimates. Without mandatory reporting of lost/stolen guns (in most states) how many private citizens never report a loss, or even a theft?

It’s time to take serious action at the State Capitol to address gun violence.

Gun owners, lock up your guns.
I can’t help but wonder about the thousands of guns lost and stolen from licensed gun dealers. How many were sold off the books? How many were stolen by employees who aren’t required to be vetted? It’s signals poor regulation and oversight.

Per a recent ATF report, in 2023 there were 208,184 firearms lost/stolen:
- 188,560 from private citizens
- 9,479 lost by gun dealers
- 5,755 stolen from gun dealers
- 4,390 lost/stolen in shipping

More than 1M between 2019-2023

The Trump administration is moving to slash the Centers for Disease and Control Prevention. Here’s what’s at stake. thetr.ac/MGM94

Firing the BLS Commissioner — the wonk in charge of the statisticians who track economic reality — is an authoritarian four alarm fire.

It will also backfire: You can't bend economic reality, but you can break the trust of markets. And biased data yields worse policy.

Program Director, GVPJR FOUNDATION OVERVIEW The Joyce Foundation is a private, nonpartisan philanthropy that invests in public policies and strategies to advance racial equity and economic mobility for the next generation in...

We’re #hiring for the role of Gun Violence Prevention and Justice Reform Program Director. Learn more at the link below and please share with your networks.
joycefoundation.bamboohr.com/careers/30

LAST CALL: Nominations for the $5,000 Greenwald Award for Excellence in Firearm Violence Prevention Research close in less than two weeks.

Mueller Proved Comey Told the Truth And the president lied.

Trump's move to investigate and prosecute James Comey, the former director who documented Trump's attempt to corrupt the FBI, is a grave step toward American authoritarianism.

This article, which I wrote in 2019, lays out the evidence. The president is trying to silence those who expose his crimes.

San Francisco has reported 11 murders through June 2025 and 31 over the last 12 months. That's the fewest murders through June and fewest rolling over 12 months ever recorded (monthly reporting from the FBI starts in 1960).

It's Not Just Murder That's Likely At Historic Lows The US is on track to record the lowest violent crime rate since 1968 and lowest property crime rate ever.

It's not just the US murder rate that is likely at or near the lowest level ever recorded. The data from the first 4 months of 2025 points to the possibility of the lowest reported property crime rate ever & lowest violent crime rate in decades. This week's piece:
jasher.substack.com/p/its-not-ju...

This is beyond cruel, especially for young folks who are going through it. Cutting off LGBTQ+ youth from specialized suicide prevention help is a death sentence disguised as bureaucracy.

Shame on every official who signed off on this. You’re not protecting children, you’re abandoning them.

A screen shot of an email reading: Dear Dr. Gill, Jacquelyn, I am writing to let you know that given the current budgetary projections and recent adjustment of NSF’s over-arching priorities, NSF/BIO will not be making any new awards through the Biology Integration Institutes Program. Therefore, the solicitation has been archived, and NSF has returned your proposal without review so you can re-submit it, or portions of it, to appropriate BIO programs that currently are receiving new proposals, if you wish. Sincerely, Jim Deshler Division Director (Acting) Division of Biological Infrastructure

Last February, I led a proposal submission that encompassed six months, hundreds of hours, four institutions, a massive team, and and 256 pages. NSF just informed us that the entire Biology Integration Institute program was archived and our proposal would not even be reviewed.

With a form email.

📢BREAKING: Just left the courthouse for our NIH grant termination case

Judge ruled terminations are “VOID & ILLEGAL”

As a plaintiff, I felt a wave of relief & hope; he acknowledged the discrimination & harm

Closed by asking, ‘Have we fallen so low? Have we no shame?’

Fact check: it is correct that in the most recent year of vital statistics data AR has a homicide rate twice that of CA. It’s basically true looking back over the last three or five years as well. AR has a big homicide problem, almost all of which concerns firearms homicides.

Many thanks to our sponsor, @arnoldventures.bsky.social , and to my colleagues @rosannasmart.bsky.social , Terry Schell, James Murphy and Nancy Nicosia.

State-Level Estimates of Nonfatal Firearm Injury Hospitalizations, 2000–2021 | AJPH | Vol. 115 Issue 7 Objectives. To create a comprehensive, publicly available data set of state-level nonfatal firearm injury inpatient hospitalizations (NFIIHs) in the United States from 2000 to 2021. Methods. We used B...

We are releasing these data simultaneously with the publication describing their development in the American Journal of Public Health: ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/full/10....

Firearm Injury Hospitalizations in America To address a gap in the available data on firearm injuries, RAND researchers have developed a longitudinal database of state-level estimates of hospitalizations due to firearm injury. Use this visuali...

JUST RELEASED: Accurate data on firearm injuries in the United States are critical to understand the costs and prevention of gun violence. But comprehensive data on injuries isn't available. We have instead developed estimates covering 2000-2022 that can be downloaded:

www.rand.org/research/gun...

Deport Dishwashers or Solve All Murders? - Marginal REVOLUTION I understand being concerned about illegal immigration. I definitely understand being concerned about murder, rape, and robbery. What I don’t understand is being more concerned about the former than t...

Much of the spending on murder investigation is local, so not counted in these figures. Nevertheless the law enforcement expenditure differences across these federal agencies does highlight a strange prioritization.
marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevo...

Hello. I live in Los Angeles. The president is lying.

EXTREMELY BAD NEWS for economic research, per former BLS Commissioner @ericagroshen.bsky.social on LinkedIn.

BLS is suspending access to its restricted data "for the forseeable future." Applies to projects through the Federal Statistical Research Data Centers & onsite projects with BLS.
#EconSky

Rapid Response Bridge Funding Program In the face of recent abrupt shifts in federal funding for education research, including large-scale terminations of National Science Foundation (NSF) research grant awards, we have developed a rap...

Very smart, high ROI initiative from the Spencer Foundation.

Providing bridge funding for canceled NSF grants:

1) directs funds to projects already screened by a top-noch review process.
2) avoids imposing proposal prep costs on researchers.
3) ameliorates the disruption from GOP sabotage.

www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06...

In case anyone missed it:

go.bsky.app/Nt64iir 🧡

#AcademicSky
#MedSky
#GVP #gunviolence #research #practice