Alex Hermann

Going live in about 20 minutes! Tap in!

Next Fri, Feb 20 @ 12:30 pm ET: @aherm.bsky.social @pjwhit.bsky.social discuss the unprecedented rise in home prices in rural areas during the pandemic, the types of communities where prices increased the most, and the effects on longtime residents.

mailchi.mp/harvard/0212...

HOOOOOOOOOOOOOLY SHIT

After 21 years, I'm going to stop the daily posting to my blog Calculated Risk. Thanks to everyone!

I'm still going to write the real estate newsletter and I've started a weekly economic newsletter to replace the blog (but just once a week).
economicweekly.substack.com

Federal Assistance Programs Help Mitigate the Worst of the Housing Crisis

For many renters, programs like SNAP and Medicaid are critical to make ends meet. Funding cuts will exacerbate the consequences of unaffordable housing, especially for lower-income households, families with children, and those headed by an older adult.

www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/federal...

Great day to have functioning eyes and a working brain

The Big Ten has won the last two national titles and will have either Indiana or Oregon in the title game this year.

Three times in four years the Big Ten has two semifinalists.

Our Top 10 Blogs of 2025

Soaring home prices, rising costs for homeowners and renters, and a new social housing movement: In case you missed them, our top blogs of this year examined persistent housing challenges in the US and opportunities for reforms.

www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/our-top...

Refs love doing this with block/charge calls in basketball also.

Happy #MapMonday! Rural home prices soared after the pandemic, by 36% in non-metro counties and fully 47% in vacation counties from 2020–2023, per new work from my @harvard-jchs.bsky.social colleagues @aherm.bsky.social & @pjwhit.bsky.social. www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/home-pr...

As a result, home values rose by 47 percent across rural vacation areas. And vacation counties in the West and Northeast saw prices rise even faster, by 51 percent apiece, as these regions hold many of the country’s rural mountain and beach communities.

So happy to see this new paper with my colleague @aherm.bsky.social out there! We examine pandemic-era rural home price trends, finding that home prices grew rapidly across rural counties but appreciated fastest in vacation areas. In the paper we explore what was behind this phenomenon. 🧵

This bar chart shows the percent change in typical home value from March 2020 to March 2023 in rural vacation counties compared to all other non-metro counties. Home values rose faster in vacation counties consistently. Nationally, home prices rose by 47 percent on average in the country’s vacation counties, but by 33 percent in all other non-metro counties. This trend is consistent in all four Census regions, with vacation county price growth ranging from 37 percent in the Midwest to 51 percent in the West and Northeast.

What's striking is that vacation counties in every region had stronger price growth than other counties, driven entirely by pandemic demand.

Home Prices Have Risen Rapidly in Rural Vacation Areas

Excited to release our new paper today with my colleague @pjwhit.bsky.social. We examine what types of rural areas had the fastest home price appreciation in the pandemic era. 🧵 www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/home-pr...

This bar chart shows the percent change in typical home value from March 2020 to March 2023 in rural vacation counties compared to all other non-metro counties. Home values rose faster in vacation counties consistently. Nationally, home prices rose by 47 percent on average in the country’s vacation counties, but by 33 percent in all other non-metro counties. This trend is consistent in all four Census regions, with vacation county price growth ranging from 37 percent in the Midwest to 51 percent in the West and Northeast.

What's striking is that vacation counties in every region had stronger price growth than other counties, driven entirely by pandemic demand.

These market pressures were driven by remote work, the pandemic demand for second homes, and the influx of higher-income homebuyers, which affected affordability for long-time residents and seasonal workers.

This map of the United States shows all non-metro counties in our sample, categorized as vacation counties and all other non-metro counties. Vacation counties are concentrated in places with abundant natural amenities, including the Upper Midwest near the Great Lakes, the Mountain West, and in the Northeast.

Home prices rose everywhere in rural communities but increased at a startling rate in vacation areas--tourism hot beds concentrated along both coasts, near the Great Lakes, and in mountain towns in the Northeast and Mountain West.

Home Prices Have Risen Rapidly in Rural Vacation Areas

Excited to release our new paper today with my colleague @pjwhit.bsky.social. We examine what types of rural areas had the fastest home price appreciation in the pandemic era. 🧵 www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/home-pr...

Home Prices Have Risen Rapidly in Rural Vacation Areas

A new paper finds that home prices in rural areas increased 36.1% between 2020-2023, but in counties with a high share of vacation and second homes, prices rose even faster at 46.8%. @aherm.bsky.social @pjwhit.bsky.social

www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/home-pr...

Great bit for sure. Admittedly I like it much more when it's not aimed at my school though!!

Ahem. That's Jim Herrmann with two r's. The distinction matters to some of us...

I am shocked -- shocked! -- to learn that housing prices fell the most in metros where inventory of homes increased by a lot. via @harvard-jchs.bsky.social
www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/home-pr...

so are Taylor and Travis going to make their first appearance as an engaged couple at the Nebraska-Cincinnati game at Arrowhead tomorrow

Big day today. We’ll find out that Michigan, champions of the 2023 NCAA football season, are indeed still champions of the 2023 NCAA football season

Pure Michigan ™

I have obtained a leaked copy of the NCAA Report which, after a thorough investigation, has concluded that Michigan football is "extremely annoying."

High home prices & interest rates have pushed sales to a 30-year low; insurance and property taxes are soaring; high rents have left record numbers with cost burdens; and wildfires have highlighted the dangers of climate disasters.

New report, livestream @ 2pm ET:
mailchi.mp/harvard/son-...

What Do Gen Z Renters Want? Amenities, Aesthetics and Their Own Mini Universe We talked to four young people who are changing the game when it comes to renting.

Gen Z represents 47% of recent US renters and as of 2023, there were 9.1 million Gen Z renter households, says @aherm.bsky.social. And they are opting for a new urban way of life: hunkering down in amenity-rich, high-design rental complexes that offer instant community.

www.wsj.com/real-estate/...

Here it is!! Just $9.99 plus tax. Also you get a little pizza cutter.

Tremendous piece. There are many valid critiques of American consumerism, but it's important to think of the ways it's defined us culturally and the benefits/detriments that come along with it. Should really have a positive plan when messing with the "bargain" described here.