Olivia O'Sullivan

Opposition to the United States' military action against Iran has risen by 10pts among Britons over the last week

Support: 25% (-3 from 2 March)
Oppose: 59% (+10)

yougov.com/en-gb/daily-...

Making it up as they go along Where does the war in Iran go from here?

Latest assessment on US/Israeli attack on Iran. The administration continues to give the impression that it is making it up as it goes along. The choices for the Iranian regime remain dire but it continues to show defiance and cause international economic turmoil. open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/m...?

Summary of the UK Government legal position: The legality of defensive action in respect of Iranian regional attacks Summary of the UK Government legal position: The legality of defensive action in respect of Iranian regional attacks

Legal advice re use of UK bases for attacks on Iranian missile bases now published www.gov.uk/government/n...

Looks like Iran has decided on three types of targets: US military bases in the region (Bahrain & others), oil infrastructure (eastern Saudi Arabia) and, perhaps most escalatory of all, densely populated urban areas to maximise economic and political impact (Dubai).

Neutral Ireland seeks closer ties with Nato over maritime security New Dublin strategy against backdrop of heightened Russia concerns could involve request for UK and French naval assistance

Good to see that there is *finally* some movement on this!

“Neutral Ireland is seeking closer co-operation with the UK and other Nato countries to defend its vast maritime area as Russia intensifies its surveillance of vulnerable undersea cables that criss-cross Irish waters.”

Snap judgement on Trump Supreme Court verdict - UK largely unaffected, may get lower tariffs now, but hadn't committed much to get them. EU, never ratified Trump deal anyway, now don't until the next step. China, still tariffs.

More affected - those who did full deals e.g. Indonesia, Vietnam

Carney constructs a mega anti-Trump trade alliance The Canadian prime minister is spearheading discussions between the EU and a major Indo-Pacific trade bloc after calling on middle powers to join forces.

SCOOP: Carney constructs a mega anti-Trump trade alliance

www.politico.eu/article/eu-a...

The Guardian view on the BBC World Service: this is London calling | Editorial Editorial: With just seven weeks before its funding runs out, the UK’s greatest cultural asset and most trusted international news organisation must be supported

And another bites the dust?

The BBC World Service will run out of funding in just seven weeks. Its funding arrangement with the Foreign Office finishes at the end of March. There is no plan for what happens next.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Starmer rightly warning against the ‘warm bath of complacency’ just because Rubio made a slightly more conciliatory speech than Vance last yr. Also Starmer really has thing about disliking warm baths

‘A generational shift in defence-industrial cooperation’ including looking closer at economic alignment

Starmer says Carrier strike group being deployed to North Atlantic; nuclear cooperation with France being enhanced; more to be done with the EU on defence

Starmer also pointedly emphasising Greenland’s sovereignty and hymning British troops who died in Afghanistan here

US military aid to Ukraine dropped 99% in 2025, report finds European countries stepped in to fill the gap, increasing military aid to Ukraine by 67% and non-military support by 59% in 2025, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

⚡️US military aid to Ukraine dropped 99% in 2025, report finds.

European countries stepped in to fill the gap, increasing military aid to Ukraine by 67% and non-military support by 59% in 2025, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

It was great to chat to @philtinline.bsky.social for the writing of this excellent report, which gets to grips with why it is so hard for the state to actually do stuff, and features a cameo from my old team, the Open Innovation Team. Many insights in here apply to foreign policy too:

There is such huge opportunity cost to each Trump tantrum. So many people with critical jobs have lost another week when they could have been doing something useful.

Trump’s Greenland tariffs show the UK must prepare for a new era of economic coercion The willingness of major powers – both the US and China – to engage in increasingly blatant economic coercion will prove a difficult challenge for the UK.

Trump's Greenland threats undermine the idea US tariffs are about aligning allies against China or onshoring industry. They're a tool to get things Trump wants. This is just one marker of a new era of economic coercion. In our @chathamhouse.org comment, Jerome Puri and I look at the UK's options:

Feels like something cracked today in the transatlantic alliance. Europeans have been swallowing their pride, bitting their tongues, and bending the knee. That strategy may have bought them time but it has now clearly failed. It also had a major cost - it has made the WH think Europe will cave. 1/

Healey: UK assisting Danish military in Greenland At a press conference alongside his Swedish counterpart, UK Defence Secretary John Healey says a British military officer is supporting a Danish "reconaissance group" in Greenland intended to bolster ...

Yes, against Russia & China. Sure.

'UK Defence Secretary John Healey says a British military officer is supporting a Danish "reconnaissance group" in Greenland ... to bolster security in the region against Russian "aggression" & "any Chinese activity". .' uk.news.yahoo.com/healey-uk-as...

President Trump’s ambition to rebuild Venezuela’s oil sector will be challenging, especially if prices continue to fall Robust long-term oil demand is needed to justify significant investment, but is called into question by the growing popularity of electric vehicles.

Donald Trump hopes to get Venezuela's oil flowing again, but this will not come cheap. Tripling production, from 1 million to 3 million barrels of oil a day, would cost an estimated $183 billion.

"This sends a very clear signal to Russia and to China that regional spheres of influence are not something to be avoided but infact embraced."

Laurel Rapp on US President Donald Trump's geopolitical ambitions in Greenland and Venezuela, via BBC News.

Joint Statement of major EU/NATO countries on Greenland, together with Denmark:

Trump, Maduro and the Panama Precedent Once again the US has undertaken a military operation that was effectively executed in support of an uncertain political objective.

New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social

"Trump, Maduro and the Panama Precedent"

Trying to make sense of today's events...

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...

US to ‘run’ Venezuela after Maduro captured, says Trump: Early analysis from Chatham House experts Experts give their initial reaction to President Trump’s strike on Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. What are the implications for the US, the region and the world?

Our experts give their initial reaction to President Trump’s strike on Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro.

Read in full ⤵️

MAGA goes south: Trump’s plan for Venezuela – European Council on Foreign Relations Speculation is swirling that the US could use military force to pursue regime change in Venezuela. The country’s fate may depend on which faction in the Trump a

This by @ecfr.eu’s Majda Ruge is a good guide to Trump’s calculus on Venezuela. Rival factions (primacists, prioritisers, restrainers) have been counseling different courses of action, but “the answers depend on what the president decides will bring him the biggest ‘win’.”

ecfr.eu/article/maga...

NEW: Trump administration launches direct military strikes on Venezuela. Explosions reported in Caracas. Aircraft reported flying over the city.

Advice for advisers - 14 lessons for making government work We have one final guest post this year from Henry de Zoete who wrote for us a few months ago on “How to Make Government Work” with a case study of the AI Security Institute.

New post just out:

"Advice for advisers - 14 lessons for making government work"

A final guest post of the year from former PM adviser Henry de Zoete on how to make things happen in power.

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/a...

We strongly condemn the U.S. decision to impose travel restrictions on five European individuals, including former Commissioner Thierry Breton.

Link to full statement: link.europa.eu/NtMX4K

Canada eyes an ‘ambitious’ new partnership with Britain amid Trump turmoil The two countries’ relationship is “incredibly valuable in the kind of dangerous and turbulent world in which we live,” Canada’s High Commissioner to London, Ralph Goodale, tells POLITICO as he ste…

SCOOP: Starmer and Carney are working on a new strategic partnership that could see Canada buy the U.K.'s 6th-gen fighter jet, forge critical minerals deals and resolve thorny trade and tariff issues, High Commissioner Goodale tells POLITICO as he steps down.

www.politico.eu/article/cana...

Christian Turner to be new UK ambassador to US Diplomat due to be Britain’s UN envoy is handed key post in Washington after contest to replace Peter Mandelson

Christian Turner to be new UK ambassador to US ft.trib.al/9UNDHMq

UK to hold inquiry into foreign financial interference in domestic politics Review, which will focus on effectiveness of political finance laws, follows conviction of former Reform politician for accepting bribes * UK politics live – latest updates An independent review into the impact of foreign financial influence and interference in domestic politics from Russia and other hostile states has been announced after one of Reform UK’s former senior politicians, Nathan Gill, was jailed for accepting bribes from a pro-Kremlin agent. Amid growing concern inside the security services and parliament over the scale of the foreign threat to British democracy, the government-commissioned inquiry will focus on the effectiveness of the UK’s political finance laws. Continue reading...

UK to hold inquiry into foreign financial interference in domestic politics