Rick Rieder

Winning the Important Points: Market Insight | BlackRock Rick Rieder on markets in September: moderating inflation, resilient growth, and why quality income and equities remain compelling.

The same is true in markets. The points that matter today include: moderating inflation, resilient (if uneven) growth, and historically attractive yields. #SmartAllocations #WealthPrinciples #ValueOverVolume #CapitalDiscipline

Read more in our latest insight: www.blackrock.com/us/financial...

What can Rafa Nadal teach us about investing?

Nadal only won 54% of points in his career, yet he's a 22-time Grand Slam champion. Success came from winning the points that mattered most. #PointsofImpact #WinningStrategy #MarketsMatter #YieldFocus #InflationWatch #ResilientGrowth #LongTermMindset

We can see this stress in recent spending data, as low-income consumption is negative YoY, compared to high income consumption running at nearly +5% YoY. Further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are not just warranted—they are essential to restoring balance and broad-based economic resilience.

The current high-rate environment continues to disproportionately burden lower-income earners while simultaneously paralyzing the housing market. #FiscalPolicy #EconomicAnalysis #BehindTheNumbers #Trends2025 #RealEconomy

So, while we continue to expect that the aggregate US growth trajectory will remain strong, buoyed by high-end consumers and investment, we also believe that large parts of the population and large sectors in the economy are struggling due to restrictive rates today. #DataInsights #FinancialNews

However, we've pointed out that the aggregate consumption figures offer limited insight into the financial reality of most American households. A closer look reveals that the top 10% of earners spend more than the bottom 40% combined. #GrowthStory #NumbersDontLie #MarketWatch

Particularly, private domestic final purchases (PDFP), which chair Powell stated was a "narrower but better signal for the future" was revised up by almost a full percent. #Economy #EconomicGrowth #GDPRevision #ConsumptionTrends #MacroEconomics

Yesterday's GDP revision reaffirms our view that the aggregate economy remains robust, as an impressive upward revision in consumption showed that Q2 Real GDP expanded at the most rapid pace in nearly two years.

(CNBC) - The new names includes Jefferies Chief Market Strategist David Zervos, former Fed Governor Larry Lindsey, and Rick Rieder, chief investment officer for global fixed income at BlackRock.

@steveliesman.bsky.social @cnbc.com
www.cnbc.com/2025/08/13/t...

Appreciate the kind words. The focus has always been on serving markets and investors through discipline, research, and risk management. Whatever the setting, we believe policy should be evidence-driven, independent of politics, and aimed at improving outcomes for households and the broader economy.

This is all a smokescreen and doesn't matter but Rieder might be interesting.

*BESSENT HAS INTERVIEWED FOUR OF AT LEAST 11 FED CHAIR OPTIONS
*BESSENT INTERVIEWED RIEDER FOR CENTRAL BANK JOB ON FRIDAY
*BLACKROCK’S RICK RIEDER CLIMBS RANKS OF FED CHAIR CONTENDERS

* BlackRock’s Rick Rieder Climbs Ranks of Fed Chair Contenders

@bloomberg.com

As we have said previously, this dynamic underscores how elevated rates disproportionately affect lower-income households, many of whom have been sidelined from homeownership in the post-COVID era. #CIOChartoftheWeek #FedMeeting #InterestRates #HousingMarket #HousingAffordability

Today, would-be home buyers face housing affordability at all-time lows where the qualifying income needed for first-time home buyers has more than doubled in 5 years! #FirstTimeHomeBuyers #EconomicPolicy #MonetaryPolicy #PostCovidEconomy #ConsumerImpact

CIO Chart of the Week: As markets prepare for today's highly anticipated Fed meeting, the current high-rate environment continues to weigh heavily on consumers… most notably in housing. #FinancialMarkets #USHousing #RateHikes #MacroTrends #WealthGap

…But we've taken a different view on the current environment. In our thinking, fixed income investors can harness markets around the world today to own diversified, quality, yielding portfolios in a way that has not been possible in recent years.

Still, while the back end of the curve has been less reliable, and at times more erratic, at this point some exposure to the longer end makes sense as rates decline. The many, and at times confusing, crosscurrents faced today by investors may discourage some,

In this context, we continue to prefer owning more of our duration in the front-to-belly of the yield curve, as correlations and fixed income's hedge effectiveness have improved at the margins here.

This places the Fed and forward policy in a very different place than what we're seen in recent years and puts the possibility of a 50 basis point policy rate cut firmly on the table later this month.

The productivity surge that we think may be ahead of us ultimately represents a downside risk to labor markets, an upside influence on growth, and a downside pressure on inflation.

As a result, we believe that the Federal Reserve's forward focus (maybe for the next few years) is likely to be achieving maximum employment - even if the economy does well in aggregate.

Thus far, this dynamic hasn't involved mass layoffs to any significant extent, but the recent moderation in the labor market (and substantial anticipated downward revisions to prior data) do suggest that employment faces significant headwinds to growth and vulnerabilities in the years ahead.

For example, we think artificial intelligence and automation may be enabling companies to deliver stronger performance while maintaining a stable workforce, which reflects significant efficiency gains and marks the beginning of a new era in workforce productivity.

The fact is that productivity, technology, and innovation are changing the historic calculus of growth versus employment in the United States today, and productivity is taking a front seat.

There are ways in which we're entering upon an economic paradigm that is quite different than anything we have seen in the recent past.

We think shelter related components are likely to continue to moderate in the future, as both home prices and rental rates soften, which given the importance of the category to the price basket overall, should help inflation moderate further in the medium term.

Its counterpart rent of primary residence generally maintained its trend around the 0.2% to 0.3% month-over-month range, and leading data such as second quarter all tenant rent data support deceleration going forward, not re-acceleration.

Interestingly, while displaying some firmness today,…

Owners' equivalent rent (OER) surprisingly picked up to 0.4% month-over-month as well, but we believe the move may prove to be a one-off.

Of course, we saw shelter prices edge up to 0.44% month-over-month in August, ending a two-month streak of softer 0.2% gains. Those prior months were weighed down by sharp cuts to lodging prices, which went the other way in August with a 2.3% spike.

Overall, we think the inflation trajectory is still moderately higher for a time, but the intermediate-term trend in inflation is generally moderating, especially in key areas such as services and shelter.