Coyote Trading LLC

The eventual fate of the GOP

Senate Dems look the very definition of "weak"; saw the trap laid for them and willingly happily stepped right in. First partisan CR in decades at the worst time in America for it. Schumers fears of "what could happen..." are still going to happen anyway.

Dems need new leaders in the Senate.

$ES I expect all gaps to be filled; when is always the question; how quickly a gap fills tells you something. Chances are this gap fills and the BTFD'ers load up and we get a bounce in the next few days or weeks. Post NVDA $ is what I am expecting...

Wisdom from his many years.

From a TPO standpoint, $ES_F dropped into the gap created on the election outcode 11/5 - bid there covering.

$SPX weekly lvls: (1) 8 EMA, (2) 21 EMA, (3) 50 SMA - the long term support of this up trend. Expect 21 wk EMA minimum into early spring. Shaded area of overshoot support/bid. These levels should take time to hit - but a semi-repeat of '23 is likely. Daily is at key support:

Todays Dec FED selloff is a bit of a game changer; there will be flow start of '25 that will put a bid to the market - but unless inflation pressure materially decline, a move the 200 SMA levels very likely. Look for rotation into defensives like Utilities, cash yielding > 4%; divi ETFs like SDIV

Funding chaos just a taste of the mayhem, pain, and misery to come to ordinary Americans - but hey that's what many of them wanted without having a clue as to what it really meant.

@ES_F VPOCs are meaningful - especially in short term trader dominated markets:

Longer rates in trouble; don't expect much help there given the new admin & current Fed bias; $TLT broke a major trendline and it matters...

If your not paying attention to rates - you should be: $ZN_F

$ES_F 6 days of balancing/auction; price could go either way but given long positioning extremes we are seeing in the market (long calls hate puts) I give the edge to price retracing to bottom of range prev posted (~4900); if not lower then higher into 5090 area (top of channel)

$ES_F OTU since B period; sellers are as weak as ever.

Well the sellers had no follow through so the trend remains up for now.

The shaded area in pic 1 is the prev balance area (1), (2) is the 21 daily ema, (3) is the balance low - a break of which would signal likely trend change.

$ES_F the market will bounce; that is a given especially considering the price action of late; how the market reacts to the bounce is the question & will revel any change in trend. Today's 21 ema (mechanical) bounce in $ES (middle) did not occur in $SPX (last)

$TNX yields gives us the answer; market is heading lower; especially post $NVDA earnings... this can change, but for now unless MGI changes the narrative - yields will be higher for much longer:

$TNX the 10yr note yield; the battle for the market is here; a break of the flag higher targets mid 4% & will put some pressure on tech:

$ES_F the divergences cont' to stack up. Yet another net negative delta day on a short covering gap up rally no less!? Crazy times. Volume is off avg by 33%. Last positive delta day was 1/29:

Really? That wouldn't be that hard to do; I'll put in my list to consider. I don't see the benefit; but I don't know everything either.