James Downie

6th this week! Including Crenshaw losing, plus Zinke, Owens, Gonzeles, Issa, and Daines over in the other chamber.

Intel report warns large-scale war ‘unlikely’ to oust Iran’s regime A classified U.S. report doubts that Iran’s opposition would take power following either a short or extended U.S. military campaign.

"A classified report by the National Intelligence Council" completed a week before the war "found that even a large-scale assault on Iran launched by the United States would be unlikely to oust the Islamic republic’s entrenched military and clerical establishment."

Gift link: wapo.st/4lcrq3M

I think they might have better luck spending two thousand dollars holding a press conference where they detail who made the key decisions to collaborate with the Trump administration, how and when they were fired, and explaining what would stop that from happening again.

February Jobs: A Big, Unexpected Drop in Jobs Any one month, especially in these days of large revisions, shouldn't be overweighted. But the trend is no longer our friend and, as a long-time data-watcher, I don't like what I'm seeing here.

@jaredb-econ.bsky.social: "Manufacturing employment, after a rare growth month in Jan (up 5,000) was down by 12,000 last month. Since peaking at around 12.9 million in early ‘23, it’s down by over 300,000."

MS NOW confirms Corey Lewandowski is also out at DHS.

Crude oil is now up 49.65% so far this year.

@cnbc.com

a set of graphs of US jobs data

NEW US JOBS DATA:

Non-farm Payrolls: -92k
Unemployment Rate: 4.4% (+0.1%)
Prime Age (25-54) Employment-Population Ratio: 80.7% (-0.1%)
Average Hourly Earnings: +0.4%

Perry: This St. Patrick’s Day, don’t forget Irish music’s anti-fascist roots Dropkick Murphys, the iconic Irish American punk band, are headlining a free block party March 6 near where Alex Pretti was killed by immigration agents, contributing columnist David M. Perry writes.

NEW “We’re celebrating a tradition that is at its core about resisting occupation and maintaining community in the face of horrors. You can’t keep politics out of Irish music. No one should try, for two reasons. First, it’s ahistorical. Second, Minnesotans are ready for a big anti-fascist party.”

Need to reinforce: These documents contain unsubstantiated allegations against Trump.

Notable: These documents were posted the day after Pam Bondi was subpoenaed by the House Oversight Committee.

I continue to be gobsmacked at 1) how common this formulation is 2) how antisemitic and generally bigoted it is 3) and how for all the talk of anti-semitism this is never cited as an example even though it’s quite literally the original incarnation.

Getting real rolling thunder vibes from this

Trump keeps saying "some people will die" like it's some deep insight, as opposed to the reason he pretended to have bone spurs.

Scoop: FEMA Cancels All Emergency Manager Trainings Except for those related to the FIFA World Cup.

@jeva.bsky.social reports that, amid the DHS shutdown, "the Federal Emergency Management Agency has suspended all of its training and education programs for emergency managers across the country — except for those 'directly supporting the 2026 FIFA World Cup.'"

Proton Mail Helped FBI Unmask Anonymous ‘Stop Cop City’ Protestor A court record reviewed by 404 Media shows privacy-focused email provider Proton Mail handed over payment data related to a Stop Cop City email account to the Swiss government, which handed it to the ...

New from 404 Media: Proton Mail, the privacy-focused email service, gave authorities data that let the FBI unmask an anonymous 'Stop Cop City' protester. It was payment data linked to the anonymous email account. From that, FBI ID'd them, then tracked their movements www.404media.co/proton-mail-...

Turns out lawlessness is not a winning strategy. See you at Nuremberg 2.0

Don’t let the door hit you on the way out, Kristi Noem.

If Mullin became DHS Secretary shortly, the (Republican) governor would appoint his (Republican) successor.

Mullin would also presumably drop his reelection campaign this year; the filing deadline is next month.

NBC's top climate reporter quits In an exclusive interview, veteran NBC meteorologist Chase Cain opens up about burnout, suppression, and why he's going independent.

“It just felt like I was just constantly....having to stay back at arm’s length and hold up this supposed objectivity....But for me, it’s really hard to be objective about all life on planet.“

@chasecain.bsky.social talks to @emorwee.bsky.social and @tracywholf.bsky.social about leaving NBC:

Any time this guy runs his mouth I think about the time he claimed that being drunk on the job is no big deal for a senator.

Noem out. www.ms.now/news/kristi-...

I was wondering where CENTCOM was getting their “terminate conflict by September” guesstimate

There it is: Noem out, Mullin in

To flip this around slightly, the old political chestnut of "he's rich, so he must know what he's doing" vs. Dan Snyder, Jerry Jones, Woody Johnson...

Most NFL owners, actually.

JACOBS: Are we at war with Iran?

COLBY: We're in a military action

JACOBS: Yesterday, Trump said 'we're doing very well on the war front' and previously he said, 'we should expect casualties because that often happens in war.' So is he wrong?

COLBY: I'm not the right person to weigh in

MAGA Unreality vs the World The U.S. government is in the hands of people who are fully detached from reality. That is a major weakness for the regime – but also a source of further radicalization.

"This is where the gravest danger lies: Delusion, ideology, and ineptitude are conspiring to make escalation almost inevitable." – @thomaszimmer.bsky.social steady.page/en/democracy...

MAGA Unreality vs the World The U.S. government is in the hands of people who are fully detached from reality. That is a major weakness for the regime – but also a source of further radicalization.

I believe MAGA will ultimately fail to consolidate authoritarian rule. But for the time being, the powers of the U.S. government are in the hands of a regime that is hellbent on imposing its unreality on America and the world.

And that is truly frightening.

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Blumenthal: "I have emerged from classified briefings deeply concerned and very fearful that we're on the precipice not only of an escalating conflict that in region, but also putting troops on the ground b/c that is almost inevitably the path the admin has chosen by its current tactical approach"

B of A:

“.. consumer stimulus from the OBBBA is so far getting reflected more in smaller-than-usual tax payments, vs. larger-than-usual refunds.” 😞

it must've felt so fucking good to say this to the trump admin lawyer