Brian Matilla

SPC Day 3 convective outlook with CONUS-view. A level 1 (MARGINAL) risk area (dark green color) extends from south-central Texas north and northeast to northern Lake Michigan. A level 2 (SLIGHT) risk area (yellow color) extends from central Texas northeastward to southern Wisconsin. A level 3 (ENHANCED) risk area (orange color) covers areas from the Red River northward through east Kansas and into far northern Missouri.

SPC Day 3 probabilistic convective outlook with CONUS-view. A >5% risk area (brown color) extends from south-central Texas north and northeast to northern Lake Michigan. A >15% risk area (yellow color) extends from central Texas northeastward to southern Wisconsin. A >30% risk area (red color) covers areas from the Red River northward through east Kansas and into far northern Missouri. Hatching area indicates Conditional Intensity Group 1 (CIG1) over all of the >30% risk area, a large percentage of the >15% risk area, and much of the southern extent of the >5% risk area in Texas.

Much of the ENH Risk area in the D3 SPC outlook update remains unchanged, but that is a rather large CIG1 coverage area extending from central TX north and northeastward through southern WI. Details will continue to change, but general thinking remains for possible significant severe conditions FRI.

Yeah the gas station in Norman closest to me went from $2.18/g over the weekend to $2.69/g yesterday. The Costco further afield from me is still considerably cheaper but definitely won't be surprised if that heads in this direction very soon.

Breaking: Senate Commerce and Science Committee approves Weather Act Reauthorization bill Bill moves to full Senate for consideration. Other news: WMO retires the name "Melissa" from the Atlantic tropical cyclone naming lists.

Breaking news: Senate Commerce & Science committee approved Weather Act Reauthorization bill this morning, sending bill to full Senate that would legislatively push back against OMB efforts to drastically cut and reorganize a number of NOAA weather science programs. tinyurl.com/yay8pevv

I should stress that this does not mean that EVERY storm that develops will attain the outlined intensity. Rather, the purpose is to be able to highlight what the overall environment is *capable of* producing, and so it is just as important to prepare for all possible severe wx.

As the CIG designations are really new, here is what the CIG1 criteria is according to SPC:

TORNADO: "Max Expected EF2+"
WIND: "All Storm Modes, peak gusts 65+ knot"
HAIL: "Supercell Environment with largest hail >2 in."

SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook for Thursday, 5 March 2026, overlooking the NWS Norman Weather Forecast Office in bold. A level 2 (SLIGHT) risk area extends from northwest Texas through north central Oklahoma, with a level 1 (MARGINAL) risk area surrounding that to points east including Oklahoma City, Stillwater, and Norman. A general thunderstorm risk area encompasses points to the southeast of the intersection between the I-35 and I-40 corridors.

SPC Day 2 Tornado Outlook for Thursday, 5 March 2026, overlooking the NWS Norman Weather Forecast Office in bold. A 5-9% (BROWN) risk area extends from northwest Texas through north central Oklahoma, with a 2-4% (GREEN) risk area surrounding that to points east including Oklahoma City, Stillwater, and Norman. A dashed area encompasses the 5-9% probability area and portions of the 2-4% area to indicate CIG1 intensity (possibility of "strong" tornadoes).

SPC Day 2 Severe Wind Outlook for Thursday, 5 March 2026, overlooking the NWS Norman Weather Forecast Office in bold. A 15-29% (YELLOW) risk area extends from northwest Texas through north central Oklahoma, with a 5-14% (BROWN) risk area surrounding that to points east including Oklahoma City, Stillwater, and Norman. A dashed area encompasses the 15-29% probability area and portions of the 5-14% area to indicate CIG1 intensity (possibility of 65+ kt, or 74+ mph, winds).

SPC Day 2 Severe Hail Outlook for Thursday, 5 March 2026, overlooking the NWS Norman Weather Forecast Office in bold. A 15-29% (YELLOW) risk area extends from northwest Texas through north central Oklahoma, with a 5-14% (BROWN) risk area surrounding that to points east including Oklahoma City, Stillwater, and Norman. A dashed area encompasses the 15-29% probability area and portions of the 5-14% area to indicate CIG1 intensity (possibility of hail stones greater than hen egg size).

Alright, we have our first look at a full suite of Conditional Intensity Group (CIG) forecasts in an SPC outlook for the latest Day 2 Outlook. All-hazards CIG1 areas have been introduced for portions of TX and OK within the SLGT & MRGL Risk areas. Low-probability but possible high-impact events...

Mosaic of SPC convective outlooks overlooking Oklahoma. The sequence of images covers day 2 (Tuesday, 3 March 2026) through day 6 (Saturday, 7 March 2026) and go from left to right. For Day 2, a level 1 (Marginal) risk area extends from southwest OK through north central OK and into Kansas. The Day 3 outlook features a level 2 (Slight) risk area that covers southeastern OK into the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex, with a level 1 (Marginal) risk area that extends westward into south-central OK. The Day 4 outlook features a 15% probability risk area of severe weather over western OK. The Day 5 outlook features a broad 15% risk area which covers a very large percentage of OK with the exception of the OK panhandle and far southeastern OK. The Day 6 outlook features a 15% risk area that includes far southeastern OK and stretches southwest through parts of north TX.

A progressive upper-level pattern will take shape this week which will favor increased moisture return over the southern Plains and an uptick in severe weather chances. SPC hints at some degree of severe wx risk through Saturday over different parts of OK. Time to revisit those severe wx plans!

Oklahoma Mesonet dewpoint observations as of 3:40 PM CST March 1, 2026. A boundary is currently draped over west-central to northeast OK with 30s dewpoints to the north and 50s-60s dewpoints to the south.

I don't particularly like being this close on the warm/moist side of the boundary... With the environment in place this afternoon, decent-sized hailstones are possible with any storms that go up later this afternoon and evening.

Quick! Someone give that boundary a good nudge southeastward!

Really puts it into perspective that even though we had that sleet and snow storm at the end of JAN, that wasn’t even a dent in the overall warmth across OK. Hard to topple it when this past Christmas featured widespread 80s and 90s. Worsening drought conditions didn’t help things either.

And it’s not even like their production quality fits the bill either. I’ve noticed numerous little things here and there that I’m just scratching my head to.

NFTs seemed like such a generation ago lol.

First broadcast of INDYCAR for 2026 on FOX and on the Alex Palou segment, the drawings featured were constructed with none other than AI…

There are entire art teams and skilled artists made for television that could have done much better.

Having seen some of the testing that was undergone during previous Spring Forecast Experiments, this will be a big and noteworthy upgrade to the existing SPC convective outlooks.

Some highlights:
-Authorizes appropriations for five years for OAR’s weather labs and cooperative institutes, plus related weather research efforts.
-Renews and authorizes appropriations for five years for VORTEX-USA.
-Furthers HFIP, with a renewed emphasis on social sciences. (1/n)

Well, Hurricane Allen no longer sits alone at the top of the table…

The post-analysis on Hurricane Melissa shows that maximum sustained winds in the storm peaked at 190 mph, tying it with Allen for the strongest hurricane by wind speed on record in the NATL basin.

Sheldon Creed, at long last, breaks his winless curse!

Also, more proof that the CW’s NASCAR coverage is above and beyond FOX and NBC put together.

Also also, Atlanta does what it does time and time again — dramatic and epic finishes!

Looks like there’s a bit of a right turn with that Sullivan TOR storm. As long as it can remain discrete from all the other stuff to the north, this parent meso has potential to go on for a while.

Confirmed tornado just north of Flat Rock, IL and headed northeast towards Palestine, IL and into far western Indiana shortly.

All it took in this environment was just enough mixing and for these supercell storms to really root themselves at the surface.

What a stretch pass into the offensive zone, that puck drag, and then just the little flick underneath the right pad to bury it in the net!

Just *chefs kiss*

🥇

If this game doesn’t help to attract a massive following for PWHL and women’s hockey in general, then I don’t know what will.

LET’S GOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

Starting in 45 min: Today I'll be discussing the value of public earth science research to the insurance sector for the NCAR CISL seminar series.

Live stream at 10am MT: sundog.ucar.edu/public/page/...

NWS Weather Observations for Aberdeen Regional Airport in Aberdeen, SD. At 08:53 AM CST, the wind speed report was a west wind at 33 mph with a gust to 183 mph (which is a highly anomalous gust and indicates a sensor problem).

You ok, Aberdeen? That must have been a sucker-punch of a gust 😅

Map of Oklahoma Mesonet dewpoint temperatures valid as of 11:30 PM CST on February 17, 2026. A dry line is evident crossing central Oklahoma where dewpoints are in the 20s and 30s°F behind the dry line with upper 50s°F ahead of it.

And we have a dry line passage in Norman. Dewpoint temperatures will continue to fall through the overnight hours as drier air filters in from the west. This will aid in part to set the stage for higher areal coverage of elevated to critical fire weather conditions tomorrow.

Multiple-panel 24-hour Mesonet meteogram for Woodward, OK. From top to bottom: -Air temperature and dewpoint temperature graph in red and green, respectively. Heat index values are plotted as a thinner but redder line. -Wind speed and wind gusts (in mph) plotted in dark blue and light blue, respectively. Wind direction is plotted as yellow circles that go from N at the bottom of the plot to N again at the top, with a clockwise rotation. -Barometric pressure plotted in brown (in units mb). -Accumulated Rainfall plotted in green (in units inches). -Actual Solar Radiation and Approximate Max Solar Radiation plotted in orange and gray, respectively.

Well… the Woodward @mesonet.org site looks to have sustained an issue related to its onboard thermometer, probably impacted by the large fire nearby. Fortunately it doesn’t seem to have affected many of the other instruments such as the anemometer and barometer which are still reporting.

Our May Ranch Mesonet site reported a severe, non-thunderstorm wind gust of 69 mph at 2:55 p.m. Damage is possible at those wind speeds across northwest Oklahoma! #okwx #okmesonet

With the EXTREME fire weather risk in the SPC outlook, NWS OSTI is running the WoFS today to help support fire-weather operations across the southern and central Plains, particularly the OK and TX panhandles.

Logano’s prediction after Duel 1 turned out to be pretty accurate, for what it was worth