Brian Matilla

Mosaic of SPC convective outlooks overlooking Oklahoma. The sequence of images covers day 2 (Tuesday, 3 March 2026) through day 6 (Saturday, 7 March 2026) and go from left to right. For Day 2, a level 1 (Marginal) risk area extends from southwest OK through north central OK and into Kansas. The Day 3 outlook features a level 2 (Slight) risk area that covers southeastern OK into the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex, with a level 1 (Marginal) risk area that extends westward into south-central OK. The Day 4 outlook features a 15% probability risk area of severe weather over western OK. The Day 5 outlook features a broad 15% risk area which covers a very large percentage of OK with the exception of the OK panhandle and far southeastern OK. The Day 6 outlook features a 15% risk area that includes far southeastern OK and stretches southwest through parts of north TX.

A progressive upper-level pattern will take shape this week which will favor increased moisture return over the southern Plains and an uptick in severe weather chances. SPC hints at some degree of severe wx risk through Saturday over different parts of OK. Time to revisit those severe wx plans!

Oklahoma Mesonet dewpoint observations as of 3:40 PM CST March 1, 2026. A boundary is currently draped over west-central to northeast OK with 30s dewpoints to the north and 50s-60s dewpoints to the south.

I don't particularly like being this close on the warm/moist side of the boundary... With the environment in place this afternoon, decent-sized hailstones are possible with any storms that go up later this afternoon and evening.

Quick! Someone give that boundary a good nudge southeastward!

Really puts it into perspective that even though we had that sleet and snow storm at the end of JAN, that wasn’t even a dent in the overall warmth across OK. Hard to topple it when this past Christmas featured widespread 80s and 90s. Worsening drought conditions didn’t help things either.

And it’s not even like their production quality fits the bill either. I’ve noticed numerous little things here and there that I’m just scratching my head to.

NFTs seemed like such a generation ago lol.

First broadcast of INDYCAR for 2026 on FOX and on the Alex Palou segment, the drawings featured were constructed with none other than AI…

There are entire art teams and skilled artists made for television that could have done much better.

Having seen some of the testing that was undergone during previous Spring Forecast Experiments, this will be a big and noteworthy upgrade to the existing SPC convective outlooks.

Some highlights:
-Authorizes appropriations for five years for OAR’s weather labs and cooperative institutes, plus related weather research efforts.
-Renews and authorizes appropriations for five years for VORTEX-USA.
-Furthers HFIP, with a renewed emphasis on social sciences. (1/n)

Well, Hurricane Allen no longer sits alone at the top of the table…

The post-analysis on Hurricane Melissa shows that maximum sustained winds in the storm peaked at 190 mph, tying it with Allen for the strongest hurricane by wind speed on record in the NATL basin.

Sheldon Creed, at long last, breaks his winless curse!

Also, more proof that the CW’s NASCAR coverage is above and beyond FOX and NBC put together.

Also also, Atlanta does what it does time and time again — dramatic and epic finishes!

Looks like there’s a bit of a right turn with that Sullivan TOR storm. As long as it can remain discrete from all the other stuff to the north, this parent meso has potential to go on for a while.

Confirmed tornado just north of Flat Rock, IL and headed northeast towards Palestine, IL and into far western Indiana shortly.

All it took in this environment was just enough mixing and for these supercell storms to really root themselves at the surface.

What a stretch pass into the offensive zone, that puck drag, and then just the little flick underneath the right pad to bury it in the net!

Just *chefs kiss*

🥇

If this game doesn’t help to attract a massive following for PWHL and women’s hockey in general, then I don’t know what will.

LET’S GOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

Starting in 45 min: Today I'll be discussing the value of public earth science research to the insurance sector for the NCAR CISL seminar series.

Live stream at 10am MT: sundog.ucar.edu/public/page/...

NWS Weather Observations for Aberdeen Regional Airport in Aberdeen, SD. At 08:53 AM CST, the wind speed report was a west wind at 33 mph with a gust to 183 mph (which is a highly anomalous gust and indicates a sensor problem).

You ok, Aberdeen? That must have been a sucker-punch of a gust 😅

Map of Oklahoma Mesonet dewpoint temperatures valid as of 11:30 PM CST on February 17, 2026. A dry line is evident crossing central Oklahoma where dewpoints are in the 20s and 30s°F behind the dry line with upper 50s°F ahead of it.

And we have a dry line passage in Norman. Dewpoint temperatures will continue to fall through the overnight hours as drier air filters in from the west. This will aid in part to set the stage for higher areal coverage of elevated to critical fire weather conditions tomorrow.

Multiple-panel 24-hour Mesonet meteogram for Woodward, OK. From top to bottom: -Air temperature and dewpoint temperature graph in red and green, respectively. Heat index values are plotted as a thinner but redder line. -Wind speed and wind gusts (in mph) plotted in dark blue and light blue, respectively. Wind direction is plotted as yellow circles that go from N at the bottom of the plot to N again at the top, with a clockwise rotation. -Barometric pressure plotted in brown (in units mb). -Accumulated Rainfall plotted in green (in units inches). -Actual Solar Radiation and Approximate Max Solar Radiation plotted in orange and gray, respectively.

Well… the Woodward @mesonet.org site looks to have sustained an issue related to its onboard thermometer, probably impacted by the large fire nearby. Fortunately it doesn’t seem to have affected many of the other instruments such as the anemometer and barometer which are still reporting.

Our May Ranch Mesonet site reported a severe, non-thunderstorm wind gust of 69 mph at 2:55 p.m. Damage is possible at those wind speeds across northwest Oklahoma! #okwx #okmesonet

With the EXTREME fire weather risk in the SPC outlook, NWS OSTI is running the WoFS today to help support fire-weather operations across the southern and central Plains, particularly the OK and TX panhandles.

Logano’s prediction after Duel 1 turned out to be pretty accurate, for what it was worth

KJAX (Jacksonville) Radar of composite reflectivity (top) and radial velocity (bottom) valid at 5:05 PM EST. Heavier rainfall associated with a line of thunderstorms is roughly 40 miles west of Daytona Beach, FL.

The leading edge of this line of storms is about 40 miles from the track, moving to the east at about 35-40 mph. With 27 to go and green flag conditions, they’ll get the checkered flag with time to spare. Any more yellow flags and it will really start to cut into that time window.

#Daytona500

I know it is going to come down to a fuel-saving sort of strategy, but jeez the level of restraint to not go full-throttle is pretty insane. These laps are quite easily 4-5 seconds off of the fastest times of the day...

#Daytona500

Kyle Busch in the number 8 Richard Childress Racing car at Daytona International Speedway. He is the Daytona 500 Pole Sitter this year, with his best Daytona 500 finish is 2nd back in 2019.

First NASCAR season without dad around, but I’m sure he’s got a heck of a seat to watch the 500 this time. Probably one of the few events out of the year he would always get so excited for (this, the summer Daytona race, Homestead, and both Talladega races)

Welcome to the 2026 season!

Warn-on-Forecast System 2-6 hr machine-learning-derived probability of severe wind reports in a 36-km neighborhood radius. The scale goes from 0.05 (5%) up to 0.50 (50%) based on ML-calibrated results in experiments.

So as part of the WoFS demonstration in operations over the next couple of years, the NWS is running WoFS in support of special events under the SEAR 1 designation; Mardi Gras in the case of today and tomorrow.

A broad neighborhood, but decent probs of severe wind possible in the next 4-hr window.

Lmao. Welcome to the real-life iRacing Draft Master series.

Didn’t quite have Scotland getting the BP off of England, much less have a 31-13 lead, in my bingo card this week… #SixNations

If you were at #AMS2026 and were present for the emergency town hall regarding NCAR, remember the words “pain is coming” to NCAR?

The transition of the Cheyenne Supercomputer Center to a third party is such a devastating blow.