Brian Matilla

Happy International Women’s Day. Today, we celebrate the strength, resilience, and grace of women everywhere. Women who nurture, who lead, who dream, who break barriers, and who lift others as they rise. To the mothers, daughters, sisters, and friends who fill our lives with love. To the trailblazers who fight for equality. To the quiet warriors whose courage goes unseen. You are seen. You are valued. You are powerfully. May we continue to uplift, support, and celebrate women not just today, but every day.

On this International Women’s Day, I am once again reminded of the incredibly talented and inspirational women that I interact with and are in my life. They push me to continually improve on and challenge myself to be the best ally and supporter I can be. We must do better by women, for women!

Dr. Bieda shared an X post from Mark Fox (Meteorologist-in-Charge in Norman, OK) conveying a request for help to major media sources, asking that calls to the NWS should not be about radar interpretation.

Amplifying an important message about what folks SHOULD NOT call an @nws.noaa.gov office concerning radar interpretation during a severe weather outbreak, as #meteorologists at the office are assuredly doing so and it takes time valuable time from such interrogation to warn about actual #tornadoes.

Did the entire booth seriously just go that oblivious to the fact that Rasmussen just absolutely slapped the wall?

IndyCar on FOX broadcast booth freaking out about Palou’s championship hopes after he ended up in the wall and out of the race.

It’s race 2 of 18…

That couplet is also headed in the general vicinity of KINX…

We’re about to do this again, aren’t we?

Oh man, the fact that you had to get to that point for people to back off… just ugh.

7:50pm: Rotation continues over Bixby moving northeast into parts of Broken Arrow and Coweta.

Even if a tornado doesn’t occur, damaging 70 mph winds are possible! #okwx

Found out over on the other place that people have been calling into the NWS OUN (Norman) WFO and providing their radar interpretation of ongoing storms…

DURING…
AN…
ACTIVE…
EVENT…

Seriously folks, please NEVER do this!

Clear TDS north of Tulsa headed directly for the town of Turley, OK. Those in Turley and downstream need to be in a shelter immediately!

Radar velocity on top and correlation on bottom showing a likely strong tornado approaching the southwest Tulsa suburbs.

Tornado Debris Signature southwest of Tulsa.

Footage coming out of Union City, Michigan of the violent tornado that just hit the area.

The lake seen in this clip is frozen.

Footage provided by @WSLPIG on X.

#severewx #wxsky

After cycling for a little while, this same supercell is now dropping another tornado evidenced by a renewed TDS south of Wakita.

Wow, that’s a razor-thin margin to KVNX with that TDS… it’ll miss it but that’s way too close for comfort.

Less defined no more… this thing has wrapped back up and there’s a confirmed large tornado on the ground. A PDS Tornado Warning is in effect for this storm. Communities of Jet and the Vance AFB need to be getting into shelter immediately!

I thought this was an anomalously low CC area as it had shown up as such on previous scans.

That isn’t anomalous. That was a TDS with that storm… it has since become a little less defined, but is still a dangerous storm headed in the vicinity of Vance AFB.

TOR-warned supercell headed for Cleo Springs, OK…

Woof what a radar presentation.

Happy Women's History Month from the @ametsoc.org Women's Committee! We are excited to feature various women within the field and AMS this month for their contributions over time.

If you have an influential female identifying person in our field’s history in mind, send us a DM!

SPC Day 1 Tornado Outlook for Thursday, March 5, 2026 focused over Oklahoma. A small >10% risk area (yellow color) exists for far southwestern Oklahoma including Altus, OK. A broader >5% risk area (brown color) exists over much of the eastern Texas panhandle into western and north central Oklahoma including cities such as Elk City, Woodward, Enid, and Ponca City, OK. A broader >2% risk area goes from northwestern Texas up into south-central Kansas including cities such as Oklahoma City, Norman, Lawton, Stillwater, and Bartlesville, OK. A hatched area encompasses the >5% and >10% risk areas to denote conditional intensity group 1 (CIG1) intensity which means that strong tornadoes (EF2+) are possible.

Nice little "TORvocado" outlook...

The setup for this evening's event is rather conditional and will depend on phasing (timing) of forcing from the west. Potential exists for a strong tornado IF a supercell storm can develop, become surface-based, and not be undercut by upscale growth.

SPC Day 3 convective outlook with CONUS-view. A level 1 (MARGINAL) risk area (dark green color) extends from south-central Texas north and northeast to northern Lake Michigan. A level 2 (SLIGHT) risk area (yellow color) extends from central Texas northeastward to southern Wisconsin. A level 3 (ENHANCED) risk area (orange color) covers areas from the Red River northward through east Kansas and into far northern Missouri.

SPC Day 3 probabilistic convective outlook with CONUS-view. A >5% risk area (brown color) extends from south-central Texas north and northeast to northern Lake Michigan. A >15% risk area (yellow color) extends from central Texas northeastward to southern Wisconsin. A >30% risk area (red color) covers areas from the Red River northward through east Kansas and into far northern Missouri. Hatching area indicates Conditional Intensity Group 1 (CIG1) over all of the >30% risk area, a large percentage of the >15% risk area, and much of the southern extent of the >5% risk area in Texas.

Much of the ENH Risk area in the D3 SPC outlook update remains unchanged, but that is a rather large CIG1 coverage area extending from central TX north and northeastward through southern WI. Details will continue to change, but general thinking remains for possible significant severe conditions FRI.

Yeah the gas station in Norman closest to me went from $2.18/g over the weekend to $2.69/g yesterday. The Costco further afield from me is still considerably cheaper but definitely won't be surprised if that heads in this direction very soon.

Breaking: Senate Commerce and Science Committee approves Weather Act Reauthorization bill Bill moves to full Senate for consideration. Other news: WMO retires the name "Melissa" from the Atlantic tropical cyclone naming lists.

Breaking news: Senate Commerce & Science committee approved Weather Act Reauthorization bill this morning, sending bill to full Senate that would legislatively push back against OMB efforts to drastically cut and reorganize a number of NOAA weather science programs. tinyurl.com/yay8pevv

I should stress that this does not mean that EVERY storm that develops will attain the outlined intensity. Rather, the purpose is to be able to highlight what the overall environment is *capable of* producing, and so it is just as important to prepare for all possible severe wx.

As the CIG designations are really new, here is what the CIG1 criteria is according to SPC:

TORNADO: "Max Expected EF2+"
WIND: "All Storm Modes, peak gusts 65+ knot"
HAIL: "Supercell Environment with largest hail >2 in."

SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook for Thursday, 5 March 2026, overlooking the NWS Norman Weather Forecast Office in bold. A level 2 (SLIGHT) risk area extends from northwest Texas through north central Oklahoma, with a level 1 (MARGINAL) risk area surrounding that to points east including Oklahoma City, Stillwater, and Norman. A general thunderstorm risk area encompasses points to the southeast of the intersection between the I-35 and I-40 corridors.

SPC Day 2 Tornado Outlook for Thursday, 5 March 2026, overlooking the NWS Norman Weather Forecast Office in bold. A 5-9% (BROWN) risk area extends from northwest Texas through north central Oklahoma, with a 2-4% (GREEN) risk area surrounding that to points east including Oklahoma City, Stillwater, and Norman. A dashed area encompasses the 5-9% probability area and portions of the 2-4% area to indicate CIG1 intensity (possibility of "strong" tornadoes).

SPC Day 2 Severe Wind Outlook for Thursday, 5 March 2026, overlooking the NWS Norman Weather Forecast Office in bold. A 15-29% (YELLOW) risk area extends from northwest Texas through north central Oklahoma, with a 5-14% (BROWN) risk area surrounding that to points east including Oklahoma City, Stillwater, and Norman. A dashed area encompasses the 15-29% probability area and portions of the 5-14% area to indicate CIG1 intensity (possibility of 65+ kt, or 74+ mph, winds).

SPC Day 2 Severe Hail Outlook for Thursday, 5 March 2026, overlooking the NWS Norman Weather Forecast Office in bold. A 15-29% (YELLOW) risk area extends from northwest Texas through north central Oklahoma, with a 5-14% (BROWN) risk area surrounding that to points east including Oklahoma City, Stillwater, and Norman. A dashed area encompasses the 15-29% probability area and portions of the 5-14% area to indicate CIG1 intensity (possibility of hail stones greater than hen egg size).

Alright, we have our first look at a full suite of Conditional Intensity Group (CIG) forecasts in an SPC outlook for the latest Day 2 Outlook. All-hazards CIG1 areas have been introduced for portions of TX and OK within the SLGT & MRGL Risk areas. Low-probability but possible high-impact events...

Mosaic of SPC convective outlooks overlooking Oklahoma. The sequence of images covers day 2 (Tuesday, 3 March 2026) through day 6 (Saturday, 7 March 2026) and go from left to right. For Day 2, a level 1 (Marginal) risk area extends from southwest OK through north central OK and into Kansas. The Day 3 outlook features a level 2 (Slight) risk area that covers southeastern OK into the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex, with a level 1 (Marginal) risk area that extends westward into south-central OK. The Day 4 outlook features a 15% probability risk area of severe weather over western OK. The Day 5 outlook features a broad 15% risk area which covers a very large percentage of OK with the exception of the OK panhandle and far southeastern OK. The Day 6 outlook features a 15% risk area that includes far southeastern OK and stretches southwest through parts of north TX.

A progressive upper-level pattern will take shape this week which will favor increased moisture return over the southern Plains and an uptick in severe weather chances. SPC hints at some degree of severe wx risk through Saturday over different parts of OK. Time to revisit those severe wx plans!

Oklahoma Mesonet dewpoint observations as of 3:40 PM CST March 1, 2026. A boundary is currently draped over west-central to northeast OK with 30s dewpoints to the north and 50s-60s dewpoints to the south.

I don't particularly like being this close on the warm/moist side of the boundary... With the environment in place this afternoon, decent-sized hailstones are possible with any storms that go up later this afternoon and evening.

Quick! Someone give that boundary a good nudge southeastward!

Really puts it into perspective that even though we had that sleet and snow storm at the end of JAN, that wasn’t even a dent in the overall warmth across OK. Hard to topple it when this past Christmas featured widespread 80s and 90s. Worsening drought conditions didn’t help things either.

And it’s not even like their production quality fits the bill either. I’ve noticed numerous little things here and there that I’m just scratching my head to.

NFTs seemed like such a generation ago lol.