Nick Parr

Total fertility rates with immediate and very long run zero population growth implications for European countries - Genus The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the below replacement level for a population without migration throughout Europe. The population growth implications of low fertility combined with non-zero migration...

Total fertility rates with immediate and very long run zero population growth implications for European countries

My new paper (last?) aims to enhance understanding of the relationships between TFR, immigration, emigration and zero population growth genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....

Obituary for my long-time former demographer colleague Professor Farhat Yusuf.

Farhat Yusuf (1940-2025) iussp.org/en/farhat-yu...

Total fertility rates with immediate and very long run zero population growth implications for European countries - Genus The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the below replacement level for a population without migration throughout Europe. The population growth implications of low fertility combined with non-zero migration...

A way of gaining perspective on the (lack of) imminence of population decrease is to find TFR that solves demographic balance =0 and compare this to actual
TFR.

Values of “IPRTFR” for 2019 ranged from 0.26 for Sweden to 2.83 for Bulgaria.

My new paper.
genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....

🆕 Fresh in GENUS: A novel look at how migration changes what “replacement fertility” really means for European populations - by @nickparr.bsky.social.

🔗 genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....

Total fertility rates with immediate and very long run zero population growth implications for European countries - Genus The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the below replacement level for a population without migration throughout Europe. The population growth implications of low fertility combined with non-zero migration...

Total fertility rates with immediate and very long run zero population growth implications for European countries

My new paper (last?) aims to enhance understanding of the relationships between TFR, immigration, emigration and zero population growth genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....

How to balance the population needs on our planet - ABC listen We face multiple looming demographic crises — and our responses seemingly contradict each other.  A rapidly aging population means that we need more children to be born. But it's foreseeable that res...

www.abc.net.au/listen/progr...

a man with long hair and a beard holds a glass of milk ALT: a man with long hair and a beard holds a glass of milk

Completely bewildered by citation of my paper to back up text about a topic I have never written about.

Socioeconomic inequalities in survival to retirement age in Denmark: a register-based analysis - Genus Around the world, people are increasingly living to older ages. This challenges the sustainability of the pension systems. In Denmark, statutory retirement age increases gradually to account for chang...

Survival inequalities expand in DK by socioeconomic group. New paper by @cosmostrozza.bsky.social, @svigezzi.bsky.social, @juliacalla.bsky.social, @sandrsalek.bsky.social, @ikashnitsky.phd, find that almost 1/4 poor men vs 1/20 rich men die pre-retirement.

🔗 genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....

Plans to replace 2031 census in England and Wales set to be abandoned after backlash

Pleased to read this

????????!!!

👉 Check our new publication - by Li, Cheng, Liu & @emitanaka.org:

"Analysis of international life expectancies with manifold learning and neural networks"

🔗 genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....

The 150 ways Australia’s electorates are wildly different Australia’s 150 federal electorates will be in the spotlight on Saturday. Here’s how they vary.

www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...

This article might interest those looking to link results
of Australia’s upcoming election to electorate demography.

Global population data is in crisis – here’s why that matters When certain groups of people are systematically undercounted, they become invisible to policymakers.

Global population data is in crisis – here’s why that matters
theconversation.com/global-popul...

Important discussion of threats to the compilation of accurate population data
and the importance
of having such data.

US natalist conference to host race-science promoters and eugenicists Details emerge about Natal conference in Austin later this month, set to feature figures linked to far-right politics

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

Far right hijacking debate on population issues.

Why Sydney will keep its place as Australia’s biggest city Predictions that Melbourne’s population would soon overtake Sydney’s were premature.

I provided some comments for this article on projected population
spatial distribution for Australia www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...

The day I realised this is exactly how university rankings work was not a day which helped in my fight against cynicism

A quokka and Rottnest Island beach yesterday.

I suspect this is sensationalist nonsense. It is a projection not a forecast apparently based on linear extrapolation with no mention of effect of immigration (hence children, grandchildren etc etc of immigrants) perpetuating some level of population floor.

Plummeting fertility rates are making Asian countries worry about running out of soldiers Declining fertility rates in South Korea, Japan, and China are making the countries think hard about how best to maintain their militaries.

Low fertility may lower conflict potential in the longer term www.businessinsider.com/asia-countri...

Components of population growth for Australia.
The population grew by 2.1% in the year to 30 June 2024

Causes death for children in the United States of America.

www.nytimes.com/2024/11/19/b...

Campop blog #25: In today's blog Leigh Shaw-Taylor uses local case studies to illustrate the surprising complexity of English occupational structure in the early 18th century, before the industrial revolution
@camunicampop.bsky.social
www.campop.geog.cam.ac.uk/blog/2024/12...

Which TFRs would prevent population decrease in 2024 if
deaths and net migration
are as per 2024 US census bureau estimates?

China 1.27 (vs 1.23 for 2024)
Japan 2.27 (vs 1.40)
South Korea 0.81 (vs 0.68)
Italy 1.40 (vs 1.26)

www.planning.nsw.gov.au/data-and-ins...
The population of New South Wales is projected to increase from 8.1 million in 2021 to
10.1 million in 2041, despite
a low assumed fertility rate.

The growth may be seen as the product of fertility being above the MIGRATION-ADJUSTED replacement level.

Will your suburb shrink or grow? These charts have the answer Sydney will add about 1 million people by 2041. Here’s where they’ll end up.

www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...

I provided comment for this
article on projected population growth for New South Wales

Yes I remember examples from when my kids were in day care. There have also been increases in childlessness (although some of this is just more overseas students, working holidaymakers etc getting counted in the population).

Australia in a baby bust? It’s not that simple – and a panic won’t help What real issue does a low birth rate pose, and for whom?

theconversation.com/australia-in...
Recommended. A nicely balanced discussion of the low birth rate issue (panic?) in Australia by Edith Gray.

The evidence gathered from 127 peer reviewed papers shows that climate change impacts increase economic inequalities and disproportionately affect the poor, both globally and within countries on all continents
3/10

Link to my starter list of demographers and adjacent