Tobias Harris's Avatar

Tobias Harris

@tobiasharris.bsky.social

Japanese politics analyst; author of The Iconoclast: Shinzō Abe and the New Japan; Chicago-born Cubs fan now living in DC; marathoner; RHP + IF ⚾ Substack: Observingjapan.substack.com. Business: www.japanforesight.com

7,192 Followers  |  774 Following  |  7,239 Posts  |  Joined: 27.03.2023
Posts Following

Posts by Tobias Harris (@tobiasharris.bsky.social)

Also, if you launch a war of choice, don't be surprised if people focus on the costs of that choice.

04.03.2026 14:39 — 👍 16    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

I will admit that I've used Claude to vibe code a tool that generates cells for my spreadsheet automatically. Took a lot of iterating but it should make the whole process easier.

04.03.2026 14:37 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

I've updated my polling tracker through today, 3.4.25.

The Takaichi government's support:
APPROVE 65.4%
DISAPPROVE 24.8%

Adjusted for pollster bias
APPROVE 67.3%
DISAPPROVE 20.3%

observingjapan.substack.com/p/tracking-t...

04.03.2026 14:36 — 👍 3    🔁 0    💬 2    📌 0

Has anyone ever explained to him the origins of the phrase ever since the Mystic Warrior Chang story first went viral or does everyone around him just let him keep believing that?

04.03.2026 00:35 — 👍 34    🔁 2    💬 2    📌 0

Omg, he used the phrase!!!

04.03.2026 00:34 — 👍 58    🔁 7    💬 3    📌 0

Oh that's glorious

03.03.2026 19:15 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Preview
War reverberates in Tokyo | Japan Daily Briefing Cross-cutting pressures on the Takaichi government

Tokyo wonders what impact the war in the Middle East will have on Japan, the LDP prepares its review of national security policy, the ruling parties push ahead with budgetary deliberations, and a new poll shows growing opposition to Japan’s foreign population.

open.substack.com/pub/observin...

02.03.2026 23:11 — 👍 19    🔁 6    💬 1    📌 3

Clearly too early to tell but I don't see how it makes it easier for her.

02.03.2026 23:19 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Preview
War reverberates in Tokyo | Japan Daily Briefing Cross-cutting pressures on the Takaichi government

Tokyo wonders what impact the war in the Middle East will have on Japan, the LDP prepares its review of national security policy, the ruling parties push ahead with budgetary deliberations, and a new poll shows growing opposition to Japan’s foreign population.

open.substack.com/pub/observin...

02.03.2026 23:11 — 👍 19    🔁 6    💬 1    📌 3

If all seas are connected are you ever not in the Pacific?

02.03.2026 17:22 — 👍 5    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

I'd say that the pivot to Asia was the friends we made along the way, but what friend making?

02.03.2026 16:48 — 👍 77    🔁 11    💬 3    📌 0
02.03.2026 16:43 — 👍 56    🔁 6    💬 0    📌 0
Video thumbnail
02.03.2026 03:33 — 👍 4    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

The rush to make these sweeping conclusions now strikes me as folly.

02.03.2026 03:31 — 👍 10    🔁 0    💬 2    📌 0
Preview
米国のイラン攻撃、「親中」排除でインド太平洋にもシフト 編集委員4人の見方 - 日本経済新聞 イランと密接な中国にくさび 永沢毅(米国外交)際限なき泥沼の戦争に引きずり込まれ、中東から足抜けできなくなる――。米国とイスラエルによるイラン攻撃はこんな不安が拭えない。しかし、中長期で見ればインド太平洋を重視するトランプ政権の戦略に沿った面がある点も見過ごしてはならない。「今回の攻撃でイランへの中国の影響力を完全に断ち切り、米国がインド太平洋に集中できるようになる」。米ハドソン研究所リサー

Nikkei is citing her views on the implications for East Asia: www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZ...

02.03.2026 03:13 — 👍 9    🔁 1    💬 1    📌 0

That aspect of his biography is so wild.

02.03.2026 02:54 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

Doctoral dissertation from UCLA on the use of force! escholarship.org/content/qt18...

02.03.2026 02:25 — 👍 3    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

Every travel guide from the period I've read mentions the same things: dust from construction, "kamikaze cabs" and terrible traffic, and something about geishas (always taking care to note that they're not prostitutes).

01.03.2026 21:30 — 👍 17    🔁 1    💬 2    📌 0

Souvenirs: kimono, camera, car

01.03.2026 21:25 — 👍 33    🔁 2    💬 2    📌 0

Kind of a nutty line from a 1958 Japan travel guide:

"Japan is now mass-producing very good small cars (Nissan Motor Company, Toyota Motor Company, etc.) suitable for the country's narrow roads and you may wish to buy one and ultimately bring it home as a second car."

01.03.2026 21:22 — 👍 86    🔁 12    💬 6    📌 0

War is the continuation of posting by other means.

01.03.2026 01:47 — 👍 12    🔁 6    💬 1    📌 0

At the risk of falling back on cliche, there is something 1984 about it. (The use of "peace" really heightens the effect.)

28.02.2026 18:40 — 👍 8    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

Another day, another leap from the veranda.

28.02.2026 16:18 — 👍 8    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Post image Post image

Same energy

28.02.2026 14:20 — 👍 43    🔁 4    💬 3    📌 0

Oh ffs -- just a firehose of pure bs.

28.02.2026 14:14 — 👍 38    🔁 7    💬 2    📌 0
The War Prayer
YouTube video by Markos Kounalakis, PhD The War Prayer

youtu.be/IRVod4PwQHs?...

28.02.2026 13:07 — 👍 2    🔁 3    💬 0    📌 0
Preview
「高市外交」の急所、米国がハシゴを外すとき ベネズエラ攻撃の含意 - 日本経済新聞 対中外交を考える際、日本の外交当局は米国にハシゴを外されるリスクを常に警戒する。「2026年は特に注意が要る」という。トランプ米大統領が11月の中間選挙に向けて中国と何らかの取引をする可能性が高いためだ。米国外交の歴史を踏まえれば、問題の大きさがわかる。米国はかつて欧州の紛争と距離を置き、自らが位置する西半球の安定を守ればよいという「モンロー主義」をとってきた。第2次世界大戦後に「世界の警察

Very much ancillary at this point, but once again a reminder to Tokyo that it can have its alliance or it can have its commitment to some semblance of a rules-based order but harder and harder to have both.

www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZ...

28.02.2026 12:48 — 👍 31    🔁 8    💬 0    📌 0

As part of this book project I've been reading about ordinary life from 1946-1960 and it's remarkable how *quickly* the change happened.

28.02.2026 12:35 — 👍 5    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

I watched it so much as a kid that the wheel of fish scene has always been embedded in my head. The best thing about that sequence is the faces and the body language though.

28.02.2026 12:14 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

Watching UHF for the first time in ages and while there is so much that's funny about it Kevin McCarthy steals every scene he's in.

28.02.2026 02:24 — 👍 9    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 1