Matt Nowlin

This Science paper may be a useful reference from a few years ago (but the science story still holds):
Strengthened scientific support for the Endangerment Finding for atmospheric greenhouse gases
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

💔 RIP Ryno

If NYT reporting is correct, the Trump EPA is embarking on a fool's errand of trying to rescind the endangerment finding
reason.com/volokh/2025/...

Opinion | What Do Conservatives Offer Universities?

Another defense of "intellectual diversity" that doesn't reckon with what this would mean in the areas that most students at U.S. universities study, such as engineering, business, health sciences, computer science, data science, economics, etc.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/15/o...

Back from Yet Another Globetrotting Adventure, Indiana Jones Checks His Mail and Discovers That His Bid for Tenure Has Been Denied January 22, 1939 Assistant Professor Henry “Indiana” Jones Jr. Department of Anthropology Chapman Hall 227B Marshall College Dr. Jones: As chairman...

It's Harrison Ford's birthday today, thus we are contractually obligated to point you to this ridiculous classic from our archives.

There have been claims that NOAA/NWS did not foresee catastrophic TX floods--but that's simply not true. This was undoubtedly an extreme event, but messaging rapidly escalated beginning ~12 hrs prior. Flood Watch mid PM, "heads up" outlook late PM, flash flood warnings ~1am.

The Supreme Court Put Nationwide Injunctions to the Torch That isn’t the disaster for birthright citizenship that some fear.

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson called yesterday's decision about nationwide injunctions "an existential threat to the rule of law."

She's mistaken.

My latest in @theatlantic.com: www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...

Infographic titled “Supreme Court’s CASA ruling nullifies lower courts’ check on executive power.” Subtitle: “Rulings on Trump-administration cases, May 1 – June 23 2025 (updated to show impact of CASA v. Reno).” The visual is three horizontal, color-coded stacked bars—one for each court level—set against a left-to-right scale that runs from “← Against Administration” (red hues) to “For Administration →” (green). 1. Federal District Courts • Beige banner: “50 district court injunctions likely nullified by CASA v. Reno ruling.” • Bar: large pink-and-red block (82 cases, 94.3%—32 active + 50 affected by CASA) on the left; narrow green block (5 cases, 5.7%) on the right. 2. Circuit Courts of Appeal • Bar: red section (17 cases, 56.7%—9 active + 8 affected by CASA) left of midline; green section (13 cases, 43.3%) right of midline. 3. Supreme Court • Beige banner: “SCOTUS effectively sided with Trump administration by staying lower-court injunctions.” • Bar: tiny red sliver (1 case, 1.5% against) followed by a long green block (65 cases, 98.5% for—15 direct + 50 stayed by CASA). Footnote lists data source (Federal Court Dockets and Supreme Court Decisions from Courtlistener.com) and notes the analysis window (May 1–June 23 2025).

With its recent CASA ruling, the Supreme Court effectively nullified 50 separate lower court checks on executive power.

Stop Looking for Red Lines. You no Longer Live in a Full Democracy It's going to be up to us to bring it back to life

Stop Looking for Red Lines. You no Longer Live in a Full Democracy

It's going to be up to us to bring it back to life
open.substack.com/pub/ryandeno...

State repression of peaceful protests can subject activists to injury and even death but—when broadcast to the world through media—often turns mass opinion against the state. bsky.app/profile/owas...

(Reuters) - Staff of the Federal Emergency Management Agency were left baffled on Monday after the head of the U.S. disaster agency said during a briefing that he had not been aware the country has a hurricane season, according to four sources ..

@reuters.com
www.reuters.com/world/us/fem...

<em>Review of Policy Research</em> | PSO Public Policy Journal | Wiley Online Library Scholars have debated how specific policy designs may generate stronger positive or negative reactions from the public, especially with regard to public expectations regarding pricing-based policy de...

New from me, @joshuabasseches.bsky.social , Kayla Gurganus, and @lraymond.bsky.social in Review of Policy Research, doi.org/10.1111/ropr... We conduct a survey experiment concerning a regulatory vs pricing-based climate policy design, both adopted at the same time in Virginia. 1/2

A man seated on a pink stroller, outdoors on a sunny day. Other people are visible in the background.

brian was starting to think that maybe his mom wasn’t coming back

Fight or Flight: The Impact of Post-Tenure Evaluations on Faculty Productivity and Selection 30 Pages Posted: 19 May 2025 Simon Quach University of Southern California Zhengyi Yu University of Southern California - Department of Economics Date Written: May 15, 2025 Abstract This paper examines the labor market effects of Florida's 2022 post-tenure review policy, which weakened tenure protections at public universities. Using a differencein-differences approach, we compare faculty outcomes in Florida to nearby states. We find the policy increased faculty exits-particularly among high-performing researchers-indicating a brain drain rather than improved selection. Additionally, we detect no productivity gains among incumbents and observe a decline in the research output of new hires. Overall, the findings suggest that reducing tenure protections negatively affects the research capacity and competitiveness of public universities.

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Cover of new REPEAT Project report, "A Fork In The Road: Impacts of Federal Policy Repeal On The U.S. Energy Transition."

Summary Full repeal of current federal energy and climate policies would: • Increase U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by roughly 0.5 billion metric tons per year in 2030 and more than 1 billion metric tons per year in 2035. • Raise U.S. household and business energy expenditures by $25 billion annually in 2030 and over $50 billion in 2035. • Increase average U.S. household energy costs by roughly $100 to $160 per household per year in 2030 and roughly $270 to $415 per household per year in 2035. • Reduces cumulative capital investment in U.S. electricity and clean fuels production by $1 trillion from 2025-2035. • Imperil a total of $522 billion in announced but pending investments in U.S. clean energy supply and manufacturing. • Reduce annual sales of electric vehicles by roughly 40% in 2030 and end America’s battery manufacturing boom. • Substantially slow electricity capacity additions, raising national average retail electricity rates and monthly household electricity bills by about 9% in 2030 — and as much as 17% in some states (including TX, OK and PA). • Kill off the nascent clean hydrogen, CO2 management, and nuclear power sectors.

Graphic showing historical and modeled US greenhouse gas emissions, with substantial increase if current federal policies are repealed.

Graphic showing modeled average household US energy costs, with substantial increase if current federal policies are repealed.

What does the GOP Megabill passed by the House this morning mean for the US energy transition, energy prices, emissions and the economy? REPEAT Project's new analysis has you covered. Read the new report or listen to our recent SHIFT KEY episode diving into the details. 🔗 ⤵️
🔌💡

I don’t think this new “Star Wars” is going to be as good as Andor

U.S. NEWS Ohio police find raccoon holding meth pipe during traffic stop When an officer took the pipe away, the raccoon pulled out another.

READ. THE. SUBHEAD.

LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO yeah this is funny

Take Five, standing by

"I'm going to govern in econometrics" is a winning campaign slogan for the ages.

What DEI threatens isn’t merit. It’s monopoly. Political science professor Hakeem Jefferson argues for DEI's importance to de-monopolizing universities.

A colleague at Stanford’s business school used The Stanford Daily to argue—poorly—against DEI. The piece was riddled with historical errors and left one searching for fact, so I broke my public writing hiatus to respond.

I hope you’ll read and share the piece.

stanforddaily.com/2025/04/22/w...

Clean energy is powering local economies in Texas » Yale Climate Connections Wind, solar, and battery storage projects are generating billions in tax revenue for communities, a University of Texas study finds.

A new study finds that wind, solar, & battery projects are creating enormous tax revenue for small Texas towns that don't have many other sources.

"Here are my regression coefficients. I'm sorry the numbers on the slide are so small. I'll read them to you."

a photo taken from a few rows back in a college lecture hall. there’s a golden retriever standing on their hind legs with their paws resting on the long table at the front of the room. the whiteboards behind them are blank for now, because they’re going to need a lot of room to explain.

"Good morning class today we're going to learn what makes a good boy so good" 13/10

Screenshot of the linked Quarto website, with input checkboxes to change different conditions for a regression model that predicts economic performance based on US political party, with a reported p-value

I’ve long used FiveThirtyEight’s interactive “Hack Your Way To Scientific Glory” to illustrate the idea of p-hacking when I teach statistics. But ABC/Disney killed the site earlier this month :(

So I made my own with #rstats and Observable and #QuartoPub ! stats.andrewheiss.com/hack-your-way/

Data Portal This page contains interactive graphics for ongoing data projects, such as an average of Donald Trump’s approval rating and a forecast of the political environment based on polling and economic data, ...

I have put up a page on my Substack to house various political data trackers. First up is an average of Trump's approval rating w/ comparisons to past presidents. Methodology & more to come.

Trump job approval, Mar. 20
Approve: 47.6%
Disapprove: 49.0%
Net: -1.4

gelliottmorris.substack.com/p/data

Not all Matts

Greg Mankiw, who has been teaching econ 101 for decades, scolds Hassett for causally interpreting an accounting identity and pretending it’s econ 101 gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2025/03/kevi...

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHH

Perhaps the hardest idea to truly understand about trade is that it is fundamentally about cooperation, not competition.

I trade goods with foreigners for the same reason I trade chores with my partner: If we reallocate tasks in just the right way, we’ll both be better off.