As a footnote: The Flowbased data is sourced from the Joint Allocation Office CCR tool, and is derived from the presolved domain only. French nuclear demand from RTE. Residual demand = Demand - sum of wind, solar, river hydro (in case of confusion)

And of course, greater regional cooperation with regards to transmission utilization. Flows to GB and Italy (big importers) can be infuriatingly inefficient. Some of this is policy/politics-derived, but both markets are clearly aware, and actively discuss, such benefits

So solutions: Incentivizing non-commercial feed-in is probably at an inflection point. Load shifting isn't imminent, but flexibility is. Sensible policies promoting battery/solar combos that feed-in during the morning peaks, charge during the peak (avoid morning charge, midday feed-in!).

It speaks to the need for flexibility, including from non-commercial owners. I know I'm guilty of letting my solar panels hum when the grid doesnt really need them (I rent - so a battery isn't on the cards) and its clearly eating up precious transmission capacity

Grid development is on the cards - in France and beyond. But these are slow! The impacted lines in eastern France are to undergo maintenance through to 2030, and production buildout (namely solar) is far outpacing grid work. French demand isnt showing much life either to balance the load

The Fuaf is obvious - far more exports directed toward sthe premium Italian market (outside the core region). The F0all however - I'm open to suggestions. The shape looks like solar, but the time stamp peaks early - feed-in from Eastern Europe perhaps? Where solar has really broken out this year

The 'Remaining available margin' (RAM) indicates what is left for core flows during constrained hours after accounting for things like non-commercial flows (F0all) and non-core flows (Fuaf). Notice the May share of thermal capability jumped y-o-y.

Much of central and western Europe ('Core') operates under the flowbased market coupling system. So its not as straightforward as A exports to B. It optimises scarce transmission resources, with active constraints limiting exports within the region. In France, Q2 constraints are frequent!

One of the notable events last year was the exposure of transmission constraints limiting eastward export capacity, particularly in southeast France. A year later, a number of those limitations are still there, but the implications have been more profound on exports to Germany, rather than Italy

With that excess, France exports, mostly to Italy, then UK, Germany, and Belgium (transit). That accounts for some of the price divergence, but not all. Curious is that depsite the excess, French May exports are down 20% on the year, despite increased export capacity to Italy (line outage last year

Part of the story in divergence is obvious. Post crisis demand has never recovered, and unlike its neighbours, France is awash with excess supply, namely nuclear. Well over 100% of residual demand is covered by nuclear. Its neighbours need imports, gas and coal (outside of the massive solar peak)

Q2 typically provides for the greatest annual length in power markets (wind, sunshine, warm but not scorching). Like last year, France stands out as wholesale power plummets. But neighbours? Not so much. Once upon a time it used to be far more aligned with Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany

German gas plant plan risks “failure” in Brussels – politician The problem was that Berlin had already negotiated a package for 10.5 GW of new hydrogen-ready, gas-fired capacity with the European Commission over much of 2023-24. said Sven Giegold, a state secreta...

Germany’s government could see its plan for 20 GW of exclusively gas-fired power capacity fail to win approval in Brussels, a senior member of the opposition Green party said late on Monday. montelnews.com/news/74962e3...

my #energy hot take is that in the coming years we are going to see far more blackouts. Not due to renewables, but mainly due to aging infrastructure, climate extremes, and lack of investments. The general public really hasnt come to term that we need to basically rebuild fundamental infrastructure

file under: “first they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, and then you win”

I find it quite encouraging to see the energy transition entering phase 3 in that framework.

And the winner is...5 way split! Diff in economic efficiency for 2 and 5-way split vs status quo ~264-339€mn. Visual clearing price upside is ~€2 across So. DE, CEE. Could the latter prove sticky? Operational ballpark of ~2030 with 4-9 yr breakeven point. Report: www.entsoe.eu/network_code...

There are way more considerations to this of course (supply/demand deviations for example). The decision is the member states. No decision? Moves to the regulator (ergo the commission). Will it impose a decision? In the current climate, I suspect driving a wedge between the EU and Germany = no

When Germany cant shift, say, wind from north to south, it exports it, then reimports it, congesting cross-border lines too (loop flows). There are major internal transmission projects due from at least 2027 which should ease this issue, but perhaps too little too late to sway the review

Cost aside (2024 redispatch = €1.8bn), the implications (amongst other things) limit physical power flows - this is where ACER and the review comes in. With a target of 70% transmission availability for cross-zonal flows, Germany is nowhere near this - to the ire of neighbors. Why?

Adding some flavour to the what's and why: one bidding zone assume power flows seamlessly internally. The reality? Last year TSOs turned down nearly 8TWh of wind that couldn't be transported, turning up gas or coal in lieu (redispatch). A major culprit: internal stress (Right graph: BNE)

Big week ahead. Bidding zone review finally due, and suspect its on a collision course with the incoming DE gov't which, pending SPD approval, should start appointing ministers which have already said no to a split. System perspective: good idea (congestion, overfit). Hard political reality though

Balancing act: Germany wrestles with decarbonizing, manufacturing ambitions (Ep 180) EnergyCents · Episode

First post - silent re-tweeter on the other place so think I'll try and make a habit of giving something back (heads up its mostly power stuff). Starting with a recent pod I did on Germany - economic challenges, searching for demand growth, flexibility etc - enjoy 😊
open.spotify.com/episode/250J...