Shannon Monaghan

Look what you made us do: How to realise a European-led NATO America’s gradual retreat from European security under the current Trump administration is reshaping NATO’s centre of gravity. To keep the alliance credible and united, Europeans not only need to…

Look what you made us do: How to realise a European-led NATO: ecfr.eu/article/look...

Incredibly important reading that Western education usually misses -- on the beginning of WWII in eastern Europe, and its very belated end.

As Putin Digs In, a Long—and Different—War With Ukraine Looms Long-range strikes on infrastructure are becoming increasingly critical as front-line advances stall.

"Since November 2022, Russia has been able to advance at only a painfully slow crawl, conquering an additional 1% of Ukraine at the cost of over a million dead and maimed Russian soldiers, by Western calculations." www.wsj.com/world/europe...

The Trump administration finally doing things that will annoy Moscow is unexpected and welcome. But it will take a great deal more to make any real difference to Russia’s determination to destroy Ukraine.

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/e...

Ukrainian drones are killing ever more soldiers Russia is grinding ahead but paying an excruciating price

“Eighteen months ago drones could target anyone 5km from the front line. Now that has extended to 15km.”

Ukrainian drones are killing ever more soldiers
economist.com/europe/2025/...
from The Economist

Remarkable numbers, worth reading.

A thread worth reading.

Screenshot from linked article, saying Western officials are puzzled, but they shouldn’t be.

Here is @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social on Russia’s disruption campaign against Europe. I’m not sure I would be so optimistic on the Kremlin being worried by US & EUR behaviour, but the conclusion is unshakeable: absent a serious response, this will get much worse.

www.iiss.org/online-analy...

"Russia appears to be conducting concerted preparations as part of the physical and psychological condition-setting phase for war contingencies."

- ISW:

And here we go. I never wrote this article, and yet it is cited here.

www.liberalbriefs.com/geopolitics/...

And of course, it sounds so plausible, I seriously checked whether I had forgotten it, or the footnote was slightly wrong.

#AIisnotresearch

What Happened to Ukraine's Ballistic Missile Defense? Explaining the Reported Drop in Patriot's Effectiveness Explaining the Reported Drop in Patriot's Effectiveness

Hi all,

I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, examining the reported drop in Ukraine’s ballistic missile intercept rate from 37 to 6 percent, as covered by the Financial Times.

Access the full post here:

missilematters.substack.com/p/what-happe...

Short summary below.

1/6

Hard agree. It's a paradox that in Denmark right now, there is a discussion about whether it would be an aggressive move to acquire long-range strike capabilities that can reach Russia. How do these people assume we will be fighting a war if we don't have weapons that can reach the enemy?

YouTube video by Anders Puck Nielsen What is Ukraine saving its missiles for?

Ukraine seems determined to prevent another winter of Russian attacks on its power grid by adopting an eye-for-an-eye approach. This shows that Ukraine is now confident enough in its strike capability to use it not only for ongoing attacks, but also as a tool of military deterrence. ⬇️

EU decision making reminds me of what Bill Gates said about how we overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.

EU close up looks pretty slow, but as Max points out, taken together it moves faster than you think.

On October 1, Ukraine marks the Day of Defenders of Ukraine. Zelenskyy honored the memory of fallen soldiers on Maidan.

Putin's escalation is far worse than we thought - Europe's drone wall is not enough Europeans have little idea of the true scale of Russia’s 'hybrid attack' campaign against them – this must change if we are to respond adequately

Spoiler: "Putin's escalation" is not "far worse" than anybody thought, if they have been paying any attention at all.

But there's no doubt it *will* get "far worse" without effective and determined deterrence from Europe.

inews.co.uk/news/world/p...

Everyone should click through to watch the map populate. Absolutely horrifying. Thank you for sharing, @alanderminna.bsky.social

Imagine spending massive amounts of money trying to buy votes and even threatening to blow up the Moldovan embassy in Brussels to sway the elections and failing so miserably:

Maia Sandu’s pro-EU PAS has won a majority in the elections Russia made a huge effort to interfere with.

Via @politico.eu

And a reminder that if you aren't receiving Stefan Korshak's FB-posts-to-Substack-newsletters, you're missing out on valuable analysis of the war in Ukraine (esp. items that the Western press often misses): stefankorshak.substack.com/p/sept-26-20...

A beautiful essay from @shekhovtsov.substack.com's highly recommended Substack.

Putin’s Lies Hide Weakness Russia has thrived on lies for centuries; its undoing will come when truth proves more powerful than the fictions it desperately spins

“The Russian state has consistently demanded recognition as a great power, even as it has consistently lacked the material, political, and moral means to sustain one.”

tomorrowsaffairs.com/putins-lies-...

"Even as Moscow tests Nato’s responses with recent violations of airspace on Europe’s eastern borders, Russia’s less visible but similarly brazen undersea spying operations are causing increasing concern among European security and defence officials."

To Shoot or Not To Shoot Down Russian Jets Some probably unpopular opinions in this week's Europe's Dispatch by Minna Ålander.

Wrote a longer article on why the heated debate in Europe about whether and when to shoot down Russian jets that violate our air space misses the point. It may have to be done, but it’s not a silver bullet with an automatic de-escalation logic.

Europe Dispatch with @phillipspobrien.bsky.social

Great interview: "Taken together, the events of the last three and a half years demonstrate that this war was not precipitated by geopolitical wrangling between Russia and the West. Rather, it was driven by Russia’s ongoing goal to destroy Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence."

"Once mere pit stops, gas stations are now pillars of Ukraine’s war effort. Offering a fleeting taste of regular life for soldiers subsisting on rations and enduring constant Russian fire, they have become symbols of resilience through a grinding conflict and won a place in Ukrainians’ hearts."

Trump's statement that Ukraine can win back all it's territory is mostly a message to Putin that Russia should more seriously engage in peace negotiations. It does not mean new US support for Ukraine, but it does signal that Trump will not obstruct Europe's efforts. 1/4

Putin is playing a dangerous game with Nato All is far from quiet on the alliance’s eastern front

And the US isn't helping.
Gift link: on.ft.com/3K8y5Oj

Really useful essay with detailed history and historiography; worth a read.

Putin's provocations of Nato are because he wants us to stop supporting Ukraine. It's an advanced version of the escalation threats, and he wants us to spend the resources on our own defense instead of sending it to Ukraine.

The U.S. Is Quietly Pausing Some Arms Sales to Europe As part of the “America First” agenda, the Department of Defense is stockpiling weapons.

Reason number 5728 to build up the European military industrial base

www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...