Thomas Juneau

-the basic parameters of Canadian policy (support for the two state solution, close relations with Israel, support for the Palestinian Authority, opposition to Hamas, the need to work with allies and partners) have not changed.

I find that many exaggerate the importance of Canada committing to recognizing Palestinian statehood, among both critics and supporters. Yes, it's an important and welcome shift. But:
-its impact will be at best limited - and only if it is as part of a broader push for peace (1/2)

“What kind of indications of progress in that direction does Canada want to see?”

Canada’s shifting stance on Palestinian statehood, explained Prime Minister Mark Carney announced Wednesday his government intends to recognize a Palestinian state.

Juneau said it’s not clear how Canada is assessing whether the Palestinian Authority has done enough.

“That’s the right approach, but the progress that Prime Minister Carney mentioned is extremely ambitious, and it’s also fairly vague,” he said.

torontosun.com/news/nationa...

Mark Carney, Palestinian Authority aligned on conditions for statehood, but ‘it won’t happen overnight,’ PA diplomat says The prime minister expressed little doubt Ottawa would follow through in September, saying Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas repeatedly committed to elections in 2026, the exclusion of Ham...

Thomas Juneau, a University of Ottawa professor who specialized in the Middle East, said that without a change in government in Israel, it's unlikely the conditions for a two-state solution will be met.

www.thestar.com/politics/fed...

The question is what threshold Canada accepts. There is leeway to declare the Palestinian Authority is making progress toward the goals and Prof. Juneau presumes Canada didn’t make a pledge now only to revoke it in six weeks.

What does Canada’s recognition of a Palestinian state mean in practice? Ottawa’s move can help create momentum for a peace process but will not have major practical or legal implications, experts say

Thomas Juneau... said Canada’s demands are ambitious and the right ones to put on the table but added: “In a narrow sense, there is a precisely zero per cent chance that all of that is going to happen by September.”
www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/artic...

The reason why it is a positive step is that as part of a broader strategy to move towards peace, to create the conditions to be able to relaunch a peace process, it is one useful step among many others.”

However, Prof. Juneau said that if there is progress to be made on a peace process – and while very few are optimistic about that happening in the near future – then collective action by Western countries and others in the region does matter.

“On its own, this has no impact...

Where other members of the international community, i.e. pretty much anybody except the U.S., can have some impact, limited but real impact, is if they act all together.”

He said that if more states recognize Palestine, it will have a limited but cumulative impact.

“On its own, Canada has no influence on this conflict, and this is not criticism of this or any other government. We’re too far and we’re too small. France on its own has no influence, or the U.K. on its own.

Trade deal aside, Prof. Juneau said Mr. Carney’s decision comes at a time when there’s “growing frustration in the international community with Israel’s continuation of the war in the Gaza Strip.”

Canada’s recognition of Palestinian state will likely have minimal impact without U.S. support, analysts say The announcement marks a change for Canada, which has long supported a two-state solution but maintained that recognition would follow peace negotiations

Thomas Juneau, a professor at the University of Ottawa and a Middle East expert, said he supports Canada’s decision to recognize Palestinian statehood, but he was surprised by the timing given the trade negotiations with the United States.

www.theglobeandmail.com/world/articl...

Lots of questions on this.

Canada set criteria for recognition (elections, PA reforms, marginalization of Hamas). I agree with these, but they are ambitious & general. On what precise basis will Canada decide by September (ie very soon) if they are respected? If not, what then?

Je suis à RDI dans quelques minutes pour parler de l'engagement du Canada à reconnaître l'état palestinien cet automne... pourquoi? quel impact? quels défis?

While Canada is not a major player on its own, its action could matter when taken among a coalition of other nations, he said.

Canada will recognize Palestine in September, Mark Carney says The Canadian government plans to recognize the State of Palestine in September, Prime Minister Mark Carney said, setting up a landmark shift in foreign policy

Thomas Juneau, a professor at the University of Ottawa who specializes in the Middle East, told the Star the recognition of a Palestinian state would be a small step to legitimize the Palestinian Authority over Hamas, which is a necessity for peace.

www.thestar.com/politics/fed...

Le Canada dans le sillage de la France | Reconnaissance de l’État palestinien: «Pas une récompense pour le Hamas» Écoutez Thomas Juneau, de l Université d Ottawa, qui s entretient sur le sujet avec l animateur Jean Sébastien Hammal.

Mon entrevue au 98.5FM ce matin: le Canada s'engage à reconnaître l'état Palestinien. Non, ce n'est pas une récompense pour le Hamas; au contraire. Alors pourquoi, et pourquoi maintenant?

www.985fm.ca/audio/714424...

Reconnaissance d’un État palestinien ? | OHdio | Radio-Canada Écoutez l’extrait de l’émission Les matins d'ici : Reconnaissance d’un État palestinien ?

Mon entrevue à la radio de Radio-Canada (Ottawa) ce matin: le Canada reconnaîtra la Palestine si l'Autorité Palestinienne progresse avec certaines réformes. C'est bien, mais les obstacles vers la paix sont énormes, et le Canada risque d'irriter Trump.

ici.radio-canada.ca/ohdio/premie...

Good questions - it's not clear to me how exactly the conditions will be assessed.

YouTube video by CBC News Canada intends to recognize Palestinian statehood. Here’s what that could mean | Hanomansing Tonight

My interview with @ianhanomansing.bsky.social on CBC tonight: Canada will recognize the Palestinian state in the fall if the Palestinian Authority commits to certain reforms. Why now? What are the consequences? What should be the next steps? (starting at 5 minutes)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Os-...

I support this:
-no, it doesn't reward terrorism; to the contrary it aims to boost the Palestinian Authority against Hamas
-but on its own, it's true it leads nowhere. It works only as part of a broader strategy to revive the peace process (which at best will be incredibly hard)

I will be on CBC with Ian Hanomansing at 19h05 tonight to talk about Canada announcing that it will recognize Palestinian statehood.

This is a positive (and overdue) step:
-no, it won't resolve the conflict, no one seriously thinks it will, but it can help build momentum and boost the Palestinian Authority
-especially because it is done in coordination with allies and is conditional on PA reforms

Canada will recognize the State of Palestine at the United Nations General Assembly in September, Prime Minister Mark Carney just announced

Juneau said that having an ambassador on the ground with a small staff would be preferable to appointing another special envoy. But he remarked that... the next best option is a special envoy posted to Beirut who can travel to Damascus and promote Canadian interests.

“If the international community [and] Canada’s allies are to have a say in rebuilding and are to encourage it, the best way to do that is to be on the ground, to lift sanctions, to provide humanitarian assistance and other forms of aid,” he said. “You can’t do that from the sidelines.”

Canada’s Syrian embassy to remain empty for ‘immediate term’ as more countries restart missions Canada's foreign ministry says its newly appointed ambassador-designate to Lebanon will be a non-resident envoy to Syria.

“Canada should try to reopen its embassy in Damascus as soon as possible,” said University of Ottawa professor Thomas Juneau, an expert on the Middle East.

www.hilltimes.com/story/2025/0...

Pierre Foglia 1940-2025 | Foglia est mort, mon vieux La Presse est en deuil de son plus célèbre chroniqueur qui, avec son inimitable style gouailleur, a fait le bonheur des lecteurs durant plus de quatre décennies.

Quelle tristesse. Peut-être la plume la plus fine, la plus éloquente, la plus drôle, la plus intelligente, la plus colorée, la plus mordante que j'aie eu le plaisir de lire.

Reposez en paix.

www.lapresse.ca/actualites/2...

État palestinien : possible solution à deux États? : Entrevue avec Thomas Juneau | OHdio | Radio-Canada Écoutez l’extrait de l’émission Le 15-18 : État palestinien : possible solution à deux États? : Entrevue avec Thomas Juneau

Mon entrevue ce soir au 15-18 à la radio de Radio-Canada: la solution à 2 états (Israël/Palestine) est-elle encore viable? oui, mais elle est sur le respirateur artificiel; elle demeure néanmoins la seule option pour assurer sécurité & dignité aux 2 peuples.
ici.radio-canada.ca/ohdio/premie...