Thomas Juneau

In a world of potlucks, Canada cannot rely on nostalgia for past parties. As the conflict in Iran deepens uncertainty about the global order, the states shaping the future will be those able to bring real capabilities to the table – and invitations to do so will hinge on what we bring. Operationalizing Davos means aligning rhetoric with resources, choosing partners with purpose, showing up when it counts and ensuring our institutions can backstop our promises. If we fail to adapt, the risk won’t just be a lingering sense of exclusion, but diminished prosperity, reduced influence and, ultimately, weakened sovereignty in a far less forgiving international order.

I have a new Op-Ed on how the Carney government can operationalize Davos.

Based on an idea I developed with @thomasjuneau.bsky.social a few years ago but tweaked a bit for our ruptured times.

www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/arti...

Conflit au Moyen-Orient : entre instabilité et désinformation | Tout le monde en parle Pour en parler : Thomas Juneau, professeur en affaires publiques et internationales, et Marie-Joëlle Zahar, professeure de science politique.

Mon entrevue à Tout le monde en parle hier soir:

ici.radio-canada.ca/tele/tout-le...

ce soir

The Iran War: Reaction from Sana’a Center Experts - Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies The war against Iran by the US and Israel is unleashing chaos across the region. Since the launch of the joint military offensive in the early hours of February 28, Iran’s death toll has reached the t...

My new article for the @SanaaCenter:

"The Axis of Resistance... has failed. While the Axis is not defeated and retains some capabilities, it has clearly shown its severe limits."

sanaacenter.org/publications...

"Critics are therefore not wrong to say that Canada has nothing to gain from endorsing his war... but they miss the reality that Canada has much to lose."

An "easily irritated Trump will not hesitate to penalise those who criticise or oppose him", wrote Juneau in the Globe and Mail on Thursday.

Canada's Mark Carney tries to strike a balance on Iran The Iran war is posing a test for the Canadian prime minister's "pragmatic but principled" approach to world affairs.

My Globe and Mail op-ed today quoted by the BBC:

"Thomas Juneau, a professor at the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa, argued that Carney's stance is likely driven by his need to manage relations with Trump."
www.bbc.com/news/article...

What does "principled pragmatism" or "values-based realism" mean? In this op-ed for the Globe, I try to go beyond the endless debates about press releases and instead think about the rationale and substance of a realist foreign policy.

Useful thread by @thomasjuneau.bsky.social

Compelling thread. Thank you @thomasjuneau.bsky.social

For Xi, Trump’s Embrace of War Proves China Needs More Power

It should be the lesson for China, and everyone else:

"The sudden and furious attacks by U.S. and Israeli forces on Iran this past week, including the killing of the country’s supreme leader, are confirming Xi Jinping’s worldview that hard power is king"
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/07/w...

Very useful thread

My op-ed in the Globe and Mail today:

"it is incumbent on Canada’s leaders not only to see the world as it is, but also to be much more transparent, truthful, and consistent with Canadians about what they see and what they intend to do about it."

www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/arti...

-There is no opposition, democratic or otherwise, ready to take over. This is a country of 90 million, awash in weapons, next to the Strait of Hormuz, at risk of falling into civil war and prolonged instability.

-If the Islamic Republic falls, the likelihood of which increases every week the war continues, what happens? The disappearance of the Islamic Republic from the face of the earth is fundamentally a good thing we should all wish for - but that is a hope, not a strategy.

-This is not an academic or semantic debate. In theory, the end-goal should determine the strategy and the resources you invest in its pursuit. In the real world, with an alignment of means and ends, your chances of success are limited (see: Iraq).

-One week into the war, Trump, Hegseth, Rubio and others continue to contradict each other on the end goal - to weaken Iran, overthrown the regime, force it to surrender, install a new religious (but nicer) leader, force it back to the negotiating table, etc.

-My mind remains completely boggled by the abject failure of the US to learn lessons from history. It's not because you say that you don't have to own it after you've broken it that you won't have broken it.

-These tactical successes were predictable: Iran is much weaker militarily, and, as we see clearly now, it is alone: no one is coming to save it.

-What happens next: either the Islamic Republic survives, weaker but nastier, in a more or less reconfigured form, or it collapses. What is the plan?

It's been a week of war in Iran. Where are we?

-The US & Israel have accumulated tactical successes. The Islamic Repubic is not on the verge of collapse, but it is much weaker.

-Again: how to translate this into sustainable strategic success is at best uncertain.

Notre chercheuse @marie-joellez.bsky.social sera en compagnie de @thomasjuneau.bsky.social à @tlmep.bsky.social dimanche pour parler de cette guerre en Iran… qui déborde ailleurs au Moyen-Orient. Un duo qui nous offrira des analyses de haut niveau. Qui sera à l’écoute ?

Très content de retourner à Tout le monde en parle dimanche soir, pour parler de la guerre en Iran:

Questions & réponses des auditeurs sur la guerre en Iran, avec Thomas Juneau | OHdio | Radio-Canada Écoutez l’extrait de l’émission Midi info : Questions & réponses des auditeurs sur la guerre en Iran, avec Thomas Juneau

Un grand plaisir de participer à une séance de questions-réponses à Midi-Info à la radio de Radio-Canada ce midi:
ici.radio-canada.ca/ohdio/premie...

The Iran War: Reaction from Sana’a Center Experts - Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies The war against Iran by the US and Israel is unleashing chaos across the region. Since the launch of the joint military offensive in the early hours of February 28, Iran’s death toll has reached the t...

My new article for the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies, where I am a fellow: The failure of the Axis of Resistance

sanaacenter.org/publications...

"Canada has long been complacent about foreign policy and national security: it could afford to neglect the pressures and incentives of the realities of power, comfortably sheltered as it was by a mostly benevolent United States."

I take Thomas’ point seriously - even when I disagree. (ie: I still think saying very little would be consistent with our “principled realism” era.) But a take worth reading - especially on how everyone could agree with Davos because it was vague enough to project different interpretations.

"As is often the case with debates on Canadian foreign policy, the exaggerated focus on rhetoric comes at the expense of analyzing substance: to understand Prime Minister Carney’s approach to foreign policy, it is more useful to analyze actions than statements."

YouTube video by CDA Institute What is the endgame in Iran?

I was on the podcast of the Conference of Defence Associations Institute yesterday to talk about Trump's endgame in Iran. What is the objective: regime change, or weakening the Islamic Republic? Can either work (yes; hard)? What are the consequences?

www.youtube.com/watch?v=RR8C...

Opinion: Canada’s rhetorical support for the war on Iran has an audience of one: Donald Trump Ottawa’s most important priority remains managing relations with its only and much more powerful neighbour

My new op-ed for The Globe and Mail. Canada needs a realist foreign policy, but the government also needs to be coherent and transparent about it.

To understand Carney's foreign policy, too many people focus on his words - look at his actions instead.

www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/arti...

YouTube video by DW News How strong is Iran's drone manufacturing capacity? | DW News

My interview with @news.dw.com: the military balance in the Gulf and how the race between Iranian missiles/drones and US/Israeli/Gulf Arab interceptors is a key variable.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMG3...