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@sausiuswx.bsky.social

Average weather enthusiast - Main areas of interest: Tropical Cyclones and (European) severewx

546 Followers  |  18 Following  |  1,075 Posts  |  Joined: 20.08.2024  |  1.8776

Latest posts by sausiuswx.bsky.social on Bluesky

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I have really been cooking todayπŸ‘¨β€πŸ³Now I have also implemented the ability to access historical Microwave images from the "TC-PRIMED" dataset. Here are a few samples, once again for the infamous Dorian, as it was punishing the island of Great Abaco.

07.12.2025 01:42 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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It was more difficult then I thought it would be but I can now also generate GOES-R and Himawari 8/9 'True Color' images. Major Hurricane Dorian from 2019 raking great Abaco and Super Typhoon Goni (RollyPH) from 2020 bearing down on Catanduanes attached for demonstration.

07.12.2025 00:34 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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I have now implemented the Visible (both single channel and 'true color' modes) for MODIS and VIIRS. To celebrate, here are the respective images of infamous Major Hurricane Melissa, as she approached her devestating landfall in Jamaica from MODIS and VIIRS.

06.12.2025 17:26 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Trying to access the same data for Haiyan however already revealed a weakness of this mode: It requires the moon. In the case of Haiyan, the moon had already long set by the time the image was taken (and was a 20% waxing crescent anyway), so no usable image can be generated.

05.12.2025 20:31 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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I have once again been cooking today. So far I have already successfully implemented the 700 nm Day/Night channel of VIIRS that essentially uses moonlight to turn night into day. Once again demonstrating with Typhoon Bopha on the way to its devestating landfall in Mindanao.

05.12.2025 20:31 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Animation of the infamous 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga HaΚ»apai eruption to celebrate my ability to produce EIR loops for any coordinates.
Data courtesy of JMA and provided via AWS, Visualisation is my own with help from Gemini 3.0 Pro

03.12.2025 22:49 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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On this day in 2004 Typhoon Nanmadol made landfall in Luzon. Even tho the storm had weakened considerably from its peak intensity as a Super Typhoon (JTWC), it still packed a punch. 70 people perished and damages amounted to 39.3 Million dollars (67 mil in todays money). #OTDwx

02.12.2025 23:09 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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OTD in 1991 Tropical Storm Zelda moved through the Marshall Islands and destroyed 60% of residences on Ebeye Island, leaving 6,000 people homless. Operations of Kwajalein Missile Range were also disrupted severely. Mainly just wanted to show off historical TC sat imagery ability

28.11.2025 22:50 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Confusingly there appears to be a dual entry on the ATCF with both Tropical Depression Senyar and Tropical Depression 34W. Tho the JTWC website shows it as TD34W, implying that that is the official JTWC designation.

28.11.2025 21:13 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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By now I am late to the party that Senyar has made history by crossing the Malay Peninsula from the west. JMA lists it as a TD at the moment but it is forecast to become a tropical storm again. JMA seems to treat it like a new system, so I assume they'll re-name it to Nokaen.

28.11.2025 21:13 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Update: Koto is basically dead alreadyπŸ˜‚

27.11.2025 23:41 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Typhoon Koto has suffered mightily at the hands of a joint assault from wind shear and dry air entrainment, compounded by decreased oceanic potential. CDO has mostly unravelled and Koto is likely to soon drop to TS status. Some re-strengthening is possible out 3-5 days.

27.11.2025 13:48 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1
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The system has some very nice spin to it and much more organized convection to it then yesterday. Looking at UW-CIMSS analysis it is also apparent that in particular the mid to upper-level reflection of this system has become a lot more coherent compared to yesterday

26.11.2025 23:40 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Invest 96B near Sri Lanka has been put under Tropical Cyclone formation alert by JTWC and labelled as a depression by IMD. The next name is Ditwah. It's likely to develop into a tropical storm under marginally favourable conditions as it stays near the (S)E coast of India.

26.11.2025 23:40 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Technically, according to JTWC best track, this unnamed storm from 2017 had briefly crossed into the strait of Malacca and then made a landfall on the W side of Malaysia

26.11.2025 23:32 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Tropical Storm Senyar looks very dishevelled right now. However JTWC still insists that it will survive to make an almost unprecedented landfall on the western coast Malaysia not far from Kuala Lumpur. Only one cyclone has ever made landfall (technically) on this side of Malaysia

26.11.2025 23:32 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Koto has steadily strengthened and has now become a typhoon according to both JMA and JTWC. Koto features a somehwat assymetrical CDO, possibly already due to shear. Core is likely partial via MW. The environment is expected to deterioate tomorrow, likely causing weakening.

26.11.2025 23:15 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Historically NOAAs tropical cyclone explorer tool only lists two previous cyclones, that could be said to have formed within the strait of Malacca on its very northestern Extremity. Another two storms passed through or into the strait of Malacca at some point in their life.

25.11.2025 20:23 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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With tropical storm 04B (still TD by IMD standards) a rare tropical Cyclone has formed in the straight of Malacca and only within 5Β° of the Equator, which is remarkable in and of itself. It won't be long for this worl but its mere existence is quite meteorologically remarkable

25.11.2025 20:23 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
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JMA has now also designated the system currently crossing out of the Sulu Sea & named it Koto (VerbenaPH). Some strengthening is expected but shear should begin to become unfavourable tomorrow. Koto also likely to get into a steering col by Thursday & may not reach the coast of Vietnam by weeks end.

25.11.2025 15:05 β€” πŸ‘ 303    πŸ” 57    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 3
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The system moving through the Phillipines (VerbanaPH) has now been designated as a tropical depression by JTWC. While the system is forecast to become a brief typhoon in the South China sea, it is not expected to effect land as such and may not even reach land in the next 5 days. Next name: Koto

24.11.2025 22:35 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

EIR suggests ERC (wobble) supported by M-PERC objective guide but I find recent radar and MW images inconclusive.

24.11.2025 07:45 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Cyclone Fina has actually almost reached Cat5 Aus Scale prior to her imminent landfall along the Kimberly coast of Australia. This was propably enabled by the unreasonably energetic waters of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf. She seems to be on a weakening trend tho. Possibly due to an (attempted) ERC.

24.11.2025 07:45 β€” πŸ‘ 374    πŸ” 98    πŸ’¬ 10    πŸ“Œ 6
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Fina seems to have briefly attained major hurricane status in the last couple of hours (00 ATCF 100 kts), tho recently the sat presentation has deterioated again. This intensity is supported by a 2051 UTC SAR pass and the very decent MW structure captured at around the same time.

23.11.2025 02:13 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Fina is currently making her closest approach to the city of Darwin, where tropical storm conditions prevail. Agency estimates place her at C2 SSHWS/C3 Aus. Radar reveals only a partial inner core and Shear is present but agencies indicate short-term strengthening regardless.

22.11.2025 15:31 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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The shear being convergent (vector angled towards the motion vector) would increase the effective strength further. The result is that as MW imagery shows, the internal structure is a lot more messy then yesterday. (3/3)

20.11.2025 23:57 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Indeed, this is consistent with model box soundings showing northerlies above about the 450 mbar pressure level, with much weaker easterlies (the prevailing tropical tradewinds) below that. This results in a maximum shear of around 20 knots, which is likely convergent as well.

20.11.2025 23:57 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Fina has thankfully at most stagnated over the last 24 hours or so. The reason for this can be quite clearly seen on water vapor RGB, which shows cloud elements moving towards the south underneath the cirrus, indicating winds from that direction, likely inducing unfavourable shear.

20.11.2025 23:57 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Tropical Cyclone Fina has continued to gradually strengthen over the last 24 hours and some satellite estiamtes place it at or near hurricane strength. Latest JTWC also has a much stronger peak (near C2) and now has a strong landfall in Darwin Sunday night. BOM is quite a bit more bearish tho.

20.11.2025 00:16 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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BOM gave Tropical Cyclone 05S the name Fina earlier today (first named storm of the season). Thankfully while the storm has gradually intensified over the last day, model solutions have no converged on lower-end outcomes. Fina is also set to effect a relatively sparsely populated area.

18.11.2025 23:34 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

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