Deep layer shear does not tell the whole story, it never does. While deep layer shear is below 10 knots, there continues to be sub-outflow layer shear impinging on the vortex. Urmil is also well ventilated, which is actually a bad thing, both tampering potential intensification.

The SWPAC finally got a named storm (Urmil). Not the prettiest right now, tho featuring glorious outflow aloft. The current decrease in DLS should allow for some beautification (and intensification) before shear goes through the roof Sunday night and ETT begins soon therafter.

No clue how many impressions this gets but in case anyone will wonder. These images were made locally on my computer using publicly accessible data. No there is no website I have to host these for the time being. Yes you can re-use them but please leave the watermarks intact.

Earlier today, the NHC had released its post-season report on Hurricane Melissa, officially upgrading her to 165, thereby making her tied with Hurricane Allen (1980) for most intense Atlantic Hurricane by wind speed. These stunning MODIS POS images were taken near that record peak intensity.

MODIS high-res EIR image from earlier today showing Tropical Cyclone Horacio as he became increasingly swept up in the subtropical westerlies. Note the elongated oblong shape of the CDO, with convection starting to seriously favour the downshear right (SW) quadrant.

It is clear that Tropical Cyclone Horacio is becoming increasingly swept up by the subtropical westerlies. The CDO is becoming increasingly distorted, the cirrus only streaming in one direction. Shear is rapidly escelating and will soon tear the storm to Smithereens.

Last evening polar orbiting satellites scored a number of great hits on Intense Tropical Cyclone Horacio, as it was coming off of its peak intensity.

Intense Tropical Cyclone Horacio undergoing rapid intensification this morning, as seen by VIIRS aboard NOAA-21 in stunning clarity. At that time, the eye had not cleared yet but very deep convection surrounded it on all sides already. Cirrus fanning out nicely already tho.

Overnight Horacio entered the goldilock zone and began the process of rapidly intensifying to the stage of Intense Tropical Cyclone, aided by low vertical wind shear and vigorous outflow aloft into the subtropical jet. Thankfully the compact storm remains well east of Rodrigues.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio is still clearly sick, as he struggles with the most unfavourable combo of shear and dry air. However when shear abates slightly tomorrow, his fortunes should turn around. Then jet interaction should aid in launching rapid intensification.

Also regarding Tropical Storm Horacio, while yesterday the ECENS put Rodrigues in the firing line, this is't really the case anymore. Only G(E)FS really favours this anymore. Agency forecasts are place Horacio well east of the island. Folks on Rodrigues should still monitor tho.

Tropical Storm Horacio is still clearly being impinged upon by shear, something that is unlikely to improve in the near term and this is likely to tamper development for ~36-48 hours. Thereafter however shear is expected to let off, potentially allowing for rapid intensification.

While shear is clearly still an issue for 97S, the situation is clearly improving Conditions are expected to further improve in the coming days and MFR expects a peak at "Intense Tropical Cyclone". Should miss Rodrigues but interests there should still monitor. Next name: Horacio

Fresh off the presses: Tropical Cyclone Gezani swirling menacingly close to the Mozambique coast as pictured by the MODIS instrument aboard NASA's Terra satellite

Personally I think the intensity is more like to 95 knots based on recent synthetic aperture radar pass and the recent warming off the eye but whatever. 90 knots is conisstent with the newest satellite consenus and a blend of recent objectives estimates overall.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani is now making its closest approach to the Mozambique coast, the eyewall coming preceriously close to shore. The eye has warmed considerably in the last few hours but the effects of shear and dry air are still evident. Intensity officially around 165 km/h

Throughout this morning JPSS satellites pictured Tropical Cyclone Gezani multiple times in stunning clarity, as it recovered from the adverse effects of vertical wind shear that had plagued the system overnight.

Thankfully Tropical Cyclone Gezani will stay off of the Mozambique coast. That being said, tropical storm force winds and some heavy rain are still propably being felt along the caost of Inhambane Province but the core windfield should stay off-shore, which is good news.

Overnight the satellite presentation of Gezani deteriorated significantly. This was almost certainly a result of the system being pummeled by shear peaking at around 15-20 knots. Now that shear is back below 10 knots, Gezani is back on the mend again.

Earlier today, NASA's polar orbiting satellite captured these high-resolution images of Tropical Cyclone Gezani as it was rapidly intensifying in the Mozambique channel.

Synthetic aperture radar data yielded estimated 1 minute sustained wind speeds of 92 knots for Gezani at 1552 UTC, which aligns well with the estimates provided by the Deep Learning/AI enhanced objective intensity guides D-PRINT and AiDT. ADTs playing catchup.

Ok, I may have jinxed it slightly (god I guess). Clearly that shear that I mentioned impinging on Gezani did a bit more damage then I thought it would. Probably also lead to Gezani being ventilated with some drier more stable air. Anyway, new VHT just went up, let's see.

OMG Gezani is cooking so incredibly hard rn and undergoing an impressive period of rapid intensification. At one point I counted at least triple rotating VHTs. I am also noting cirrus fanning out into 3/4 quadrants. Tho it also evident that some shear is impinging on the vortex.

Woah there. I was afraid this is gonna happen. Gezani is once again rapidly intensifiyng and is likely to once again reach the stage of Intense Tropical Cyclone. Hopefully it will not make a second landfall in Inhambane province but this scenario cannot be ruled out.

Cyclone Gezani is back over water and trying to re-organize. Model guidance is generally agreement that it will re-intensify but there is considerable disagreement as to how much intensification. Track is also questionable with a possible second landfall in Nampula Province.

VWP hodographs from southwestern France indicate that exstreme shear magnitudes are already in place. In fact both Momuy and Bourdeux show a 0-3 BWD of between 60 and 70 knots. Bourdeux also has a large looping hodograph. Proper convective initiation may be imminent as well.

These high-res satellite images of Tropical Cyclone Gezani where captured less then 6 hours before its devestating landfall on the important Port City of Toamasina that has left at least 20 people dead. At virtually this exact time JTWC fixed the intensity at 205 km/h (125 mph).

Certainly looks like Storm Nils will also be associated with a severe weather threat especially across southern France, where extreme shear magnitudes should overlap with at least some instability. Damaging wind gusts near showers/storms and even tornadoes a possibility.

According to my analysis Intense Tropical Cyclone Gezani has just made landfall, unfortunately pretty much right on top of the port city of Toamasina. Satellite estimates suggest Gezani was a C4 SSHWS with winds of ~220 km/h at landfall. The reasonable worst case has sadly come true.

According to my analysis Intense Tropical Cyclone Gezani has just made landfall unfortunately virtually on top of the port city of Toamasina. Satellite estimates suggest Gezani was a Cat 4 SSHWS with winds of ~220 km/h at landfall. The reasonable worst case has sadly come true.