Arizona's 𝐁𝐋𝐔𝐄 Politico

John McLean, 1956-2024, Young Democrats of Arizona

Extremely sad to see this today. I knew John and he was a fantastic person who really dedicated himself to public service. Sending prayers to his family.

Voters can be somewhat sensible.

Voter initiatives are going to be the only way to advance good public policy in AZ until 2026.

I hope we have one on school vouchers and on more funding for public education.

Nah I get it completely it was a targeted district by Dems. They know it has potential

Unless trends dramatically reverse, 2 seats in 13 will be easier than regaining the seat in 23.

The spread between the two D house candidates there was very small, meaning if there's a general D wave/favorable year then both are likely to get in.

16 is a given that it already was a single shot

It's a very conservative strategy because if 2026 is a big blue wave our gains could be minimal.

But at this point 4/13/16/23 are going to be tough nuts to crack and I don't think you can risk the second seat in 2 without losing both in a bad year.

Going forward imo AZ Ds will need to focus on a very plain majority, with no room for error.

That means running single shot candidates in 2, 4, 16, and 17. Run 2 in 13 or regain the seat in 23.

Current map on the left after 2024 elections, map on the right is the idea for 2026.

2026 will be crucial for Ds future hopes in AZ. Gov. Hobbs is up for reelection.

Assuming 2026 will be a favorable year for Ds, similar to 2018, they should be favored. Opponent is a big ?

Hobbs' favorability as of Feb '24 were good, net +13. Her vetoes & choice for LG will be big for her chances.

Ciscomani seems set to either match or slightly expand his winning margin by 0.5% unless Cochise/Pima can be more favorable to him.

Pretty underwhelming for him, while Trump romped through the state. Still, a W is a W.
Top target for 2026, even more so than AZ-1 probably.

If the remaining vote in Pima & Cochise came in the way the last ballots broke for both Engel/Ciscomani:

Ciscomani wins by 8,572 votes.

She needs either the remaining Pima vote to come in much bluer or Cochise to come in less red. Preferably both.

Why do I love Greenlee County, Arizona?

1. Greenlee county used to be the most Democratic county in AZ

2. Heavily unionized workforce

3. Union workers were crushed in '83 for striking

4. Extremely small population so even ~200 people voting makes a difference

5. Swung 17 pts towards Dems in '22

DeSantis et al are still getting BTFO'd by Trump in AZ. Hard to see how this changes.

TIL Bluesky has a mobile app...

A picture of Arizona's 15 counties. They are colored in various shades of red, blue and grey.

INDEPENDENTS BECOME #1 PARTY IN AZ

As of July 2023, Independents had a plurality in three counties. Maricopa, Pinal & Yuma

Sen. Kelly & Gov. Hobbs have a net approval with Is

Trump is -18 with them

2024 is looking good so far in AZ

Kirsten Engel getting BTFO'd on Q2 fundraising totals

Is AZ-6 attainable for Dems? Yes

If fundraising continues like this? No

THE ONE. THE ONLY. AZ's BLUE POLITICO IS ON BLUESKY!