Gavin Bena 🗳

Clay Higgins was the lone vote against releasing the Epstein files.

If you’ve forgotten who he is, here’s a helpful reminder:

the Illinois House was once elected by cumulative voting, with each of the 59 senatorial districts electing 3 representatives for a total of 177

in 1980, the Cutback Amendment abolished cumulative voting and cut the House to just 118 elected from single-member districts

i think this was a mistake

<0.5%

The 2026 US House election results:
- Democrats net 10 seats for a majority of 225
- Republicans only gain from new gerrymanders
- 8 incumbent Democrats lose renomination to newcomers, the most such losses since 1992

What's your reaction?

Zohran Mamdani versus Everyone Else

Not meant to be a realistic reflection of hypothetical results if Sliwa dropped out, but neat to look at.

Worth noting that while Mamdani receives 'only' 50.4% of the vote, he wins a majority in 29 districts, 56.9% of NYC's 51.

2025 New York City Mayoral election results by city council district:

Prediction versus Results:

Deeply whiffed on which way undecided Cuomo/Sliwa undecideds would break, not taking Trump's endorsement into account, but was mostly correct on Mamdani - underestimating him a bit among nonwhite voters, overestimating him a bit among white voters.

on one hand, Mamdani only won 50.4% of the vote in a city where Harris won 68.1%, thus a landslide loss in any swing seat

on the other, he had to fight tooth and nail against the establishment of our own party, billionaire donors and corporate interests

so who’s to say, really

Or in plain english, a Yes vote means no net change in taxes, a No vote means they go down.

Not exactly controversial and admittedly quite boring, which is likely why turnout was only 13.9%, but nevertheless good to see a win here.

Voters in Mehlville School District, in South St. Louis County, Missouri, overwhelmingly voted to approve 2024’s existing $0.0326/$100 tax and a further $0.0240/$100 for 2025 to offset an expected decrease in debt service levies.

Yikes.
Guessed well on Mamdani’s % and the coalitions, but my thought process that many Republicans would still hate Cuomo enough to stick with Silwa in the end was wrong.

Those fearmongering ads and Trump’s endorsement likely helped Cuomo, and that’s horrifying.

of course, disappointed it failed but happy it was quite close

- in an area with many competitive districts-whether that's because of many Trump voters agreeing that public schools need more support, or because of disproportionately high Democratic turnout in an off-year election.

It's worth pointing out, however, that the Rockwood School District boundaries voted 55.5% for Trump and 42.8% for Harris in the 2024 Presidential election. With most Republicans opposed and most Democrats in favor, it's notable that Yes on Prop S outperformed Harris by ~6% -

St. Louis County's biggest election tonight was Proposition S in Rockwood School District, which would have raised its tax levy by 45 cents per $100 of assessed valuation-from approximately $3.7426/$100 to $4.1926/$100.

With all polls closed, it was defeated by just 497 votes.

Tossing in my final guess at NYC by council district:
A mashup of polls, demographic data, the 2025 primary and recent generals, plus whatever sliver of bias slipped in.

Among the main candidates:
Mamdani 51.1%, Cuomo 28.3%, Sliwa 20.6%

I collected one signature today

stopped by a retirement community for someone in need

I had to support the board sideways, they pushed to sign with their one good arm

they thanked me
told *me* to stay strong
we hugged, I tried not to crush them

…don’t let the light go out

the BOA really looked at downtown and went “yeah… it’s worth facing a legal battle to turn this block into another parking lot”

According to proponents, the area isn't specifically designated by ordinance as a "park" so the section of the city charter doesn't apply

But opponents argue the city charter doesn't specifically *require* that the park be designated as such by city ordinance to be applicable

Today, St. Louis City's Board of Alders voted 10 against 5 to sell a city-owned green space downtown.

That might seem incredibly boring, because it is, but the vote was notably controversial because the city charter requires voters to approve the sale of any city-owned parks.

louvre burglar
(jewelry not included)

he doesn’t know he is 1 year old

birthday boy !!!

next protest I go to I’m making a sign that just says “I <3 trains” so I can prove a point

idk what the point is but I really want to do it

It’s difficult not to take a side in the Democratic primary between Wesley Bell and Cori Bush when the Israeli government is just openly buying political ads

not AIPAC, not the UDP - these ads are paid for by Lapam, the Israel Government Advertising Agency

CD12, North KC, Liberty, and Independence, is oddly difficult because there haven’t been competitive federal elections in the area for ages. Lauren Arthur? John Rizzo? I’m sure many would want it to be Jason Kander.

CD13, a somewhat vulnerable Emanuel Cleaver

CD9, Jay Wasson? Runner-up to Burlison in 2022? Feels boring but can’t imagine Mike Moon holding it.

CD10, Alford, CD11, Graves.

CD6, Jason Smith. I don’t like how it jumps up to Rolla, but oh well.

CD7, Kurt Schaefer. He won the Columbia media market in his 2024 House bid, this would be an easy victory for him.

CD8, Eric Burlison

CD3 is a Biden-Harris district but Ann Wagner likely still hangs on if she’s free to moderate a bit more.

CD4 is Bob Onder’s home turf.

CD5, Mary Elizabeth Coleman, I guess? Ran for the House in 2024 and dropped out, would have a much easier time here.

CD2 primaries are probably proxy wars between labor and liberal orgs akin to SD4. Probably held by Russ Carnahan in the past, but today I could see it being anyone from Scott Sifton to Peter Merideth.