Josh Dean

I think of it as analogous to basic science research vs engineering. Both I think are important and provide their own kinds of returns.

The hope is that understanding things like if and why people don’t like visiting new places provides transportable insights about human behavior that we couldn’t have gotten from other, more bundled, labor market type impact evaluations.

As one of the potential sources of this kind of frustration, I think the positive case for this kind of work is that it hopefully has better external validity properties than a pure impact evaluation.

Read the VoxDev article on this by @sberkouwer.bsky.social & Joshua Dean: voxdev.org/topic/health...

Cooking, Health, and Daily Exposure to Pollution Spikes (Forthcoming Article) - Many routine daily activities—such as cooking and commuting—cause large recurring pollution spikes that may impact health without significantly affecting average exposure. We s...

Forthcoming in AEJ: Economic Policy: "Cooking, Health, and Daily Exposure to Pollution Spikes" by Susanna B. Berkouwer and Joshua T. Dean. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Suppose we then have attrition correlated with D. Lee Bounds logic suggests we should drop the individuals that pull up the ratios the most for one bound and individuals who pull down the ratios the most for the other bound.

Is that kosher? Is there a better approach?

Specifically, let D be binary treatment. We estimate preferences over binary options Y_1 and Y_2 with attributes (X_1,Z_1) and (X_2,Z_2) as follows:

P(Y_1>Y_2)=Beta_1*(X_1-X_2)+Beta_2*D*(X_1-X_2)+Beta_3*(Z_1-Z_2)

We are interested in Beta_1/Beta_3 and Beta_2/Beta_3

Has anyone computed Lee Bounds (or other selective attrition bounds) in a binary choice experiment/conjoint as part of an RCT?

Potentially weird feedback loop in the market right now

market decline -> increased prob tariffs canceled -> market climb -> lower prob tariffs canceled -> market declines...

And there it is

They're now saying it's CNBC's fault

Weird preview. Should be

Futures sink, S&P 500 eyes bear territory as market rout worsens U.S. stock index futures slumped on Monday and the S&P 500 was poised to confirm a bear market as investors barreled into government bonds on worries over the fallout of U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff plans.

Reuters is repeating it, but doesn't say which interview

www.reuters.com/markets/us/f...

But maybe not? This whole thing is insane

bsky.app/profile/cono...

It seems like most firms haven't adjusted pricing yet in response to impending tariffs (e.g. I think apple prices are the same).

That seems odd. Price of replacing inventory is about to shoot up. Theories? Firms are worried about backlash if they do it before they "have" to?

Ha! Thanks. Yea, I've been trying to mostly stay off of socials. We'll see if that holds long term or not.

Look folks, he said that he was going to bring grocery prices down and now Apples are cheaper. What do you want from him?

Devin Pope and I are hiring for two RA/predoc/RP positions!

We are typically able to sponsor visas. Please share widely!

www.chicagobooth.edu/-/media/facu...

I don’t know who needs to hear this, but you do not have an obligation to spend today scrolling and reading about what went wrong. It won’t change the results, and I bet you won’t find real answers.

Sometimes the best response to bad things is to think about other good things.

Going to bed trying to remind myself that even though bad things out of our control happen, our job is to keep finding a way through and make good things happen where we can

Today I am thankful for our students who gave me hours of talking about research instead of doom scrolling.

Ok, time to breathe and bring the temp down because panic isn’t productive.

What’s something you’re excited about happening soon regardless of who wins?

I’ll go first: Christmas with this kid who is just starting to really understand holidays

Alright folks. I'm pre-registering my Harris wins prediction because over the past three months her success has been strongly correlated with my son's toilet training success and here are the texts I've gotten today from his grandma

I’d rather just go to sleep, but no way I’ll be able to

a man laying in bed with his mouth open and the words i am on day two of a panic attack ALT: a man laying in bed with his mouth open and the words i am on day two of a panic attack

Contemplating setting this as my autoresponder for the next couple of days

Millions of Movers Reveal American Polarization in Action A detailed look at how — and why — voters who move are widening the gap between blue neighborhoods and red ones.

This article is a wonderful combination of fascinating and totally believable. The angle here is the election, but also seems to have important implications for things like views of political out group members given contact hypothesis evidence.

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

We should have known it would be a toss up as soon as the knew the candidates were H and T.

Appreciate @voxdev.bsky.social giving me the chance to talk about noise!

📢Please retweet📢

Profs Van Benthem, Lockwood, Low, Rees-Jones, Kessler and I are hiring 3 predoctoral researchers (in environmental, behavioral, and public econ) to start July 2025. Prior RAs got into Berkeley, Princeton and Brown (econ PhDs).

Rolling review:
sberkouwer.github.io/BEPPhiring.pdf

Not sure! Personality selection here also seems potentially important. But I have no evidence besides introspection here