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Iran After the Supreme Leader As Iran confronts the aftermath of mass state violence and braces for the possibility of U.S. strikes, debate over the country’s future has intensified.

After Khamenei, the real fight is over where power actually lives.

On Feb. 17, Kerry sat down with Alex Vatanka to talk about the second round of U.S.-Iranian talks in Geneva. They discussed the slow movement of diplomacy and the military buildup in the Gulf. (Members Only)

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Breaking Tehran’s Grip on Baghdad What happens when the proxy network loses its patron but not its guns? We might be about to find out. Negotiations between the United States and Iran

What happens in Iraq if Iran’s regime falls?

Iran and the Gulf: Why Hedging Is No Longer Enough During the recent protests in Iran, most Gulf states quietly but actively pushed back against calls in Washington for military strikes. Their judgment was

In a moment of regional flux, the Gulf has an opportunity to shape its neighborhood. The alternative is letting Iran’s future unfold without Gulf input. Bader al-Saif and Sanam Vakil discussed on Feb. 20.

For Iran’s Regime, Better to Take a Beating than Capitulate It seems natural to assume that relentless pressure will force authoritarian leaders to yield, yet the opposite is often true. When survival is at stake,

In high-stakes confrontations, backing down is not always the safest choice. Tanya Goudsouzian and Ibrahim al-Marashi discussed on Feb. 26 how history in the Persian Gulf offers a cautionary lens.

Twice Bombed, Still Nuclear: The Limits of Force Against Iran’s Atomic Program On Feb. 28, the United States and Israel launched coordinated but separately named military campaigns against Iran — the United States under Operation

The United States and Israel have struck Iran’s nuclear infrastructure twice in under a year. What those strikes failed to resolve may prove even more consequential.

The key question now is whether the Iranian regime can survive. If U.S. or Israeli forces sustain an aerial presence to target repressive forces, it could shape what follows. (Members Only)

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A Proxy Without a Purpose: Hizballah and the Iran Crisis What use to Iran is Hizballah in the event of all-out war against the regime? In principle, a great deal. In practice, not so much. The ongoing U.S. and

Iran’s primary proxy in Lebanon has long been seen as a strategic asset. Its real value may look very different under strain.

The U.S. military can learn important lessons from the war in Ukraine, as Iran's use of Shahed drones in retaliation for American strikes on Iran clearly demonstrates. On Feb. 24, Dara Massicot discussed emerging battlefield technology. (Members Only)

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A Proxy Without a Purpose: Hizballah and the Iran Crisis What use to Iran is Hizballah in the event of all-out war against the regime? In principle, a great deal. In practice, not so much. The ongoing U.S. and

In practice, "what use to Iran is Hizballah in the event of all-out war against the regime?" ask Faysal Itani and Dania F. Arayssi.

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The Transatlantic Defense Business Politics Can’t Break The foundations of the Atlantic alliance are shifting in ways not seen since the early days of the Cold War. Washington is no longer simply urging greater

Politics may be straining the trans-Atlantic alliance, but defense business tying it together is moving faster than ever. What could that mean for the future of the alliance?

AI Is Being Misunderstood as a Breakthrough in Planning. It’s Not. In the age of AI, the scarcest resource in headquarters is no longer time. It is, rather, the willingness to say no. Artificial intelligence is moving

What began as a drafting aid is now setting the baseline for how options are framed and debated.

The U.S. Military Must Save Itself Before Saving Others In 2023, Jennifer Kavanaugh and Jordan Cohen wrote, “The True Military Assistance Tradeoff is Between Israel and Taiwan,” where they argued Washington

U.S. military assistance is stretching across multiple theaters at once. What that means for readiness is becoming harder to ignore. (Members Only)

For Iran’s Regime, Better to Take a Beating than Capitulate It seems natural to assume that relentless pressure will force authoritarian leaders to yield, yet the opposite is often true. When survival is at stake,

Military superiority can be clear on paper yet murky in practice. Persian Gulf history shows how leaders weigh risks differently.

Xi Has Made China’s Currency Ambition Explicit What changes when China’s leader finally states a reserve currency ambition explicitly? Xi Jinping has now done so, calling for the renminbi to attain

Much of the renminbi’s rise has happened quietly through trade and finance channels. The question is what happens if ambition outpaces design.

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All Too Quiet on the Western Neuroenhancement Front “A merry little surge of electricity piped by automatic alarm from the mood organ beside his bed awakened Rick Deckard.” The characters in Philip K.

Strategic competitors are integrating biotechnology and AI with clear military intent. Yet Western institutions are still proceeding cautiously, even as the stakes are rising.

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If you’re working where defense meets innovation, @Cogs0fWar is for you. Follow our dedicated vertical on defense technology and industrial base issues for cutting-edge analysis.

Transition is rarely a single moment. It is a slow reckoning with identity, ambition, and expectation. (Members Only)

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A public rebuke from the White House was meant to sideline Iraq’s likely next prime minister. It may have rallied his rivals behind him warontherocks.com/20...

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Russia’s losses are immense, but they do not carry the same social and political weight many in the West expected. How are those deaths absorbed at home? (Members Only)

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Arctic Hot Takes Need a Cold Reality Check At –40°F, cold is not a condition simply to be managed. It is a constraint that governs everything. Equipment fails, humans slow, and mistakes compound.

The debate over Arctic security is expanding, but the environment still has the final word. Any serious strategy should begin with human limits, not ambition.

Lawmakers say they have given the Pentagon what it asked for. Why do performance gaps still remain?

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Becoming a Navy linguist starts in the classroom but does not end there. The path stretches from immersion training to operational life. (Members Only)

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The most durable skills from a cyber and intel career are not flashy. They are the ones you carry into every room. (Members Only)

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AI Is Being Misunderstood as a Breakthrough in Planning. It’s Not. In the age of AI, the scarcest resource in headquarters is no longer time. It is, rather, the willingness to say no. Artificial intelligence is moving

AI now produces balanced lines of effort, evenly weighted objectives, and fully populated task lists on demand. What it cannot produce is judgment.