War on the Rocks

After decades under one man’s rule, Iran faces a fractured leadership amid active war. The structure of the regime is being tested in real time. (Members Only)

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On Feb. 17, Kerry sat down with Alex Vatanka to talk about the second round of U.S.-Iranian talks in Geneva. They discussed the slow movement of diplomacy and the military buildup in the Gulf. (Members Only)

Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...

Iran After the Supreme Leader As Iran confronts the aftermath of mass state violence and braces for the possibility of U.S. strikes, debate over the country’s future has intensified.

No matter what happens in the coming days, the clock is ticking on a system built around one man.

A Proxy Without a Purpose: Hizballah and the Iran Crisis What use to Iran is Hizballah in the event of all-out war against the regime? In principle, a great deal. In practice, not so much. The ongoing U.S. and

In practice, "what use to Iran is Hizballah in the event of all-out war against the regime?" ask Faysal Itani and Dania F. Arayssi

Breaking Tehran’s Grip on Baghdad What happens when the proxy network loses its patron but not its guns? We might be about to find out. Negotiations between the United States and Iran

If Iran falters, Iraq will face two tests at once: securing its borders and preventing unrest at home.

The U.S. military can learn important lessons from the war in Ukraine, as Iran's use of Shahed drones in retaliation for American strikes on Iran clearly demonstrates. (Members Only)

Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...

Breaking Tehran’s Grip on Baghdad What happens when the proxy network loses its patron but not its guns? We might be about to find out. Negotiations between the United States and Iran

What happens in Iraq if Iran’s regime falls?

Twice Bombed, Still Nuclear: The Limits of Force Against Iran’s Atomic Program On Feb. 28, the United States and Israel launched coordinated but separately named military campaigns against Iran — the United States under Operation

Can military force in Iran succeed against Iran's atomic program where diplomacy did not?

A Proxy Without a Purpose: Hizballah and the Iran Crisis What use to Iran is Hizballah in the event of all-out war against the regime? In principle, a great deal. In practice, not so much. The ongoing U.S. and

In practice, "what use to Iran is Hizballah in the event of all-out war against the regime?" ask Faysal Itani and Dania F. Arayssi.

The United States Goes to War with Iran Just hours ago, the United States and Israel launched sweeping strikes on targets in Iran — and Tehran is responding. Events are moving quickly, with...

The key question now is whether the Iranian regime can survive. If U.S. or Israeli forces sustain an aerial presence to target repressive forces, it could shape what follows. (Members Only)

For Iran’s Regime, Better to Take a Beating than Capitulate It seems natural to assume that relentless pressure will force authoritarian leaders to yield, yet the opposite is often true. When survival is at stake,

In high-stakes confrontations, backing down is not always the safest choice. History in the Persian Gulf offers a cautionary lens.

On Feb. 5, Kerry and Ryan sat down with Alex Vatanka, Holly Dagres, and Naysan Rafati to discuss the crisis in Iran shaped by decades of repression, corruption, and economic strain. Why do protests keep returning and why does this moment feel different?

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Iran's use of Shahed drones in response to the American and Israeli strikes underscores the importance of learning lessons from the war in Ukraine. On Feb. 24, Dara Massicot and Michael Kofman unpacked key lessons from Ukraine’s battlefield. (Members Only)

Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...

A Proxy Without a Purpose: Hizballah and the Iran Crisis What use to Iran is Hizballah in the event of all-out war against the regime? In principle, a great deal. In practice, not so much. The ongoing U.S. and

Iran’s primary proxy in Lebanon has long been seen as a strategic asset. Its real value may look very different under strain.

Twice Bombed, Still Nuclear: The Limits of Force Against Iran’s Atomic Program On Feb. 28, the United States and Israel launched coordinated but separately named military campaigns against Iran — the United States under Operation

The United States and Israel have struck Iran’s nuclear infrastructure twice in under a year. What those strikes failed to resolve may prove even more consequential.

Iran After the Supreme Leader As Iran confronts the aftermath of mass state violence and braces for the possibility of U.S. strikes, debate over the country’s future has intensified.

After Khamenei, the real fight is over where power actually lives.

On Feb. 17, Kerry sat down with Alex Vatanka to talk about the second round of U.S.-Iranian talks in Geneva. They discussed the slow movement of diplomacy and the military buildup in the Gulf. (Members Only)

Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...

Breaking Tehran’s Grip on Baghdad What happens when the proxy network loses its patron but not its guns? We might be about to find out. Negotiations between the United States and Iran

What happens in Iraq if Iran’s regime falls?

Iran and the Gulf: Why Hedging Is No Longer Enough During the recent protests in Iran, most Gulf states quietly but actively pushed back against calls in Washington for military strikes. Their judgment was

In a moment of regional flux, the Gulf has an opportunity to shape its neighborhood. The alternative is letting Iran’s future unfold without Gulf input. Bader al-Saif and Sanam Vakil discussed on Feb. 20.

For Iran’s Regime, Better to Take a Beating than Capitulate It seems natural to assume that relentless pressure will force authoritarian leaders to yield, yet the opposite is often true. When survival is at stake,

In high-stakes confrontations, backing down is not always the safest choice. Tanya Goudsouzian and Ibrahim al-Marashi discussed on Feb. 26 how history in the Persian Gulf offers a cautionary lens.

Twice Bombed, Still Nuclear: The Limits of Force Against Iran’s Atomic Program On Feb. 28, the United States and Israel launched coordinated but separately named military campaigns against Iran — the United States under Operation

The United States and Israel have struck Iran’s nuclear infrastructure twice in under a year. What those strikes failed to resolve may prove even more consequential.

The key question now is whether the Iranian regime can survive. If U.S. or Israeli forces sustain an aerial presence to target repressive forces, it could shape what follows. (Members Only)

Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...

A Proxy Without a Purpose: Hizballah and the Iran Crisis What use to Iran is Hizballah in the event of all-out war against the regime? In principle, a great deal. In practice, not so much. The ongoing U.S. and

Iran’s primary proxy in Lebanon has long been seen as a strategic asset. Its real value may look very different under strain.

The U.S. military can learn important lessons from the war in Ukraine, as Iran's use of Shahed drones in retaliation for American strikes on Iran clearly demonstrates. On Feb. 24, Dara Massicot discussed emerging battlefield technology. (Members Only)

Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...

A Proxy Without a Purpose: Hizballah and the Iran Crisis What use to Iran is Hizballah in the event of all-out war against the regime? In principle, a great deal. In practice, not so much. The ongoing U.S. and

In practice, "what use to Iran is Hizballah in the event of all-out war against the regime?" ask Faysal Itani and Dania F. Arayssi.

Membership War On The Rocks Platinum An All-Access Pass to War on the Rocks What Our Members Are Saying “I’ve been a member since 2016. War on the Rocks is a melting

Don’t just keep up. Get ahead. Become a War on the Rocks member and join thousands of professionals who already have.

The Transatlantic Defense Business Politics Can’t Break The foundations of the Atlantic alliance are shifting in ways not seen since the early days of the Cold War. Washington is no longer simply urging greater

Politics may be straining the trans-Atlantic alliance, but defense business tying it together is moving faster than ever. What could that mean for the future of the alliance?

AI Is Being Misunderstood as a Breakthrough in Planning. It’s Not. In the age of AI, the scarcest resource in headquarters is no longer time. It is, rather, the willingness to say no. Artificial intelligence is moving

What began as a drafting aid is now setting the baseline for how options are framed and debated.

The U.S. Military Must Save Itself Before Saving Others In 2023, Jennifer Kavanaugh and Jordan Cohen wrote, “The True Military Assistance Tradeoff is Between Israel and Taiwan,” where they argued Washington

U.S. military assistance is stretching across multiple theaters at once. What that means for readiness is becoming harder to ignore. (Members Only)

For Iran’s Regime, Better to Take a Beating than Capitulate It seems natural to assume that relentless pressure will force authoritarian leaders to yield, yet the opposite is often true. When survival is at stake,

Military superiority can be clear on paper yet murky in practice. Persian Gulf history shows how leaders weigh risks differently.