Jan Arild Snoen

A short- to mid-term military risk isn't the US running out of interceptors or PGMs in this conflict per se. It is the opportunity costs.

Cornyn did so well that Trump could finally endorse him Even in the most heavily Republican counties where Attorney General Ken Paxton might have expected to benefit from a MAGA base, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn largely held his own.

Cornyn did so well that Trump could finally endorse him

Screenshot of a warning to Americans to "depart now via commercial means due to serious safety risks" from Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates and Yemen.

Warning American citizens to evacuate over a dozen countries three days into this war, when commercial flights are already shut down, demonstrates the Trump Administration’s lack of planning or coordination.

Ja, og tilsvarende om demokratene velger moderate eller progressive. Og det kan i neste omgang si noe, men ikke mye, om hvilket parti som vinner i november.

Navnene og etnisiteten endrer seg, men Texas er fremdeles Texas.

Reports of Ukraine’s Demise Are Still Exaggerated Four years after Russia began its invasion, some pundits are still forecasting doom and gloom. Never trust a weatherman.

Maybe one day the "Ukraine is losing" broken clock folks will be right, but for now, Ukraine is not losing.

Større støtte til krigen - 44-56 enn i tidligere målinger. En kort, relativt vellykket krig kan vippe over 50%, mens en langvarig vil skape kjempeproblemer på hjemmebane for Trump.

Cornyn, Paxton head to runoff in Texas Senate GOP race Sen. John Cornyn is in the fight of his career — and national Republicans fear they could lose the seat if he falls.

🚨 NEW: The Texas Senate GOP primary is heading to a bitter runoff, as longtime Sen. John Cornyn fights to survive against Texas AG Ken Paxton.

Tonight’s result showed some surprising strength for Cornyn, who had trailed Paxton in most public polls.

Cornyn ser ut til å gjøre det noe bedre enn målingene, men Paxton likevel favoritt i run-off.

Talarico vinner i Texas. Han har best sjanser til å slå R, særlig dersom Paxton blir motkandidaten. Skrev om senatsvalgene 12. feb. snoen.substack.com/p/donald-lam...

Stortings­presidenten: Peker på eksilleder som ny iransk toppfigur Stortingspresident Masud Gharahkhani (Ap) tror at «eksil-kronprins» Reza Pahlavi er den som nå har størst oppslutning til å få Iran på et demokratisk spor.

Stortingspresidenten bør ikke ha noen mening om hvem som skal styre Iran. Pahlavi har utvilsomt en god del støtte, men det er også grunn til å være skeptisk til en leder som ikke har vært i landet på nesten 50 år. Se fx denne. www.timesofisrael.com/irans-exiled... www.vg.no/nyheter/i/ln...

Steve Witkoff: Iran has enough uranium for 11 nuclear bombs | The Jerusalem Post Iran claims it possesses 460kg of 60% enriched uranium, enough to build nuclear weapons in a few years. Notably, Iran would have needed at least two years to actually make a nuclear bomb.

Noterer meg at Ulstein gjengir Witkoffs talepunkter som om de var sannhet. #dax18 Gjelder det også alt Witkoff sier om Russland? www.jpost.com/middle-east/...

Directly contradicts Rubio: “We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action, we knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces, and we knew that if we didn’t preemptively go after them …we would suffer higher casualties” www.state.gov/releases/off...

Q: Crown Prince Pahlavi -- is he an option?

TRUMP: Some people like him. We haven't been thinking too much about that. It would seem to me that somebody from within might be more appropriate.

Iran-krigen, dag 4 Utenriksminister Rubio leverer en kreativ tolkning av selvforsvar.

Jeg fortsetter å lese internasjonal presse om Iran-krigen, slik at du sparer tid. snoen.substack.com/p/iran-krige...

Litt positive nyheter.

Ja, gjør nå absolutt dette til en religiøs krig også!

picture from the just-completed White House event of a side profile of Trump with a visible injury on his neck

whoa -- this is new. Trump has a significant rash-like injury on his neck today in addition to his disfigured hand

(Saul Loeb/Getty)

NRK deler opp utenriks­redaksjonen: 30 ansatte må søke seg til nye avdelinger Fra påske oppløser NRK utenriksredaksjonen og fordeler ansvaret på flere avdelingen. Ingen av de rundt 30 ansatte vet om de får tilhøre nye utenrikssatsinger, eller om de må jobbe med annet enn utenri...

Utenriksdekningen i NRK legges om. Det er uklart for meg om dette i praksis betyr en nedprioritering. www.journalisten.no/nrk-deler-op... Jeg kan bekrefte at utenriksdekningen i Mediehuset Snoen fortsetter med uforminsket kraft! ;-)

Centcom update on Operation Epic Fail
www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-...

Gunnar Stavrum ny sjef i Dagbladet Etter 23 år på topp i Nettavisen, melder Gunnar Stavrum (64) sjokkovergang til liberale og frisinnede Dagbladet.

1. april kom tidlig i år. www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/gunn...

US intel did not suggest a preemptive strike from Iran before US-Israeli attacks, AP sources say Trump administration officials told congressional staff in private briefings that U.S. intelligence did not suggest Iran was preparing to launch a preemptive strike against the U.S.

Looks like some very senior admin officials lied brazenly to journalists. "Trump administration officials told congressional staff in private briefings Sunday that U.S. intelligence did not suggest Iran was preparing to launch a preemptive strike"
apnews.com/article/iran...

Kuwait says ‘several’ US warplanes crashed in the country, all crew survived Footage shows at least one pilot ejecting; US embassy in Kuwait City closed as black smoke seen rising from compound

Kuwait says ‘several’ US warplanes crashed in the country, all crew survived https://www.timesofisrael.com/kuwait-says-several-us-warplanes-crashed-in-the-country-all-crew-survived/

‼️ There is a possibility that Russia may be sending Shahed-type drones (Russian name:Geran) to Iran.Iran has already shown interest in Russia's modified versions,such as Geran-3& Geran-5,which are essentially inexpensive cruise missiles with improved speed (up to 600 km/h)&anti-jamming capabilities⤵️

Once a Critical Partner, the Ayatollah's Fall Looks to Have Minimal Fallout for Russia’s War - The Moscow Times Opinion | With United States and Israeli missiles over Iranian skies and much of the Islamic Republic’s leadership already eliminated, the implications of the assault on Iran will reverberate througho...

Opinion: Despite the Russia-Iran partnership, there is reason to believe that the war on Iran will have only modest impacts (or few at all) on Russia’s war in Ukraine, writes Nicholas Castillo.

Iran-krigen, dag 3 Jeg har lest internasjonal presse for deg.

Iran-krigen: Jeg har plukket interessante analyser fra internasjonal presse, så sparer du litt tid :-). snoen.substack.com/p/iran-krige...

Enthusiasm often decides midterm elections. Right now, the Democratic Party has the upper hand.
(Clifford Young, Ipsos)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/260301

Trump valgte krigen Det viktigste spørsmålet i Iran-krigen er hva som kommer etter bombene.

Det skjer noe fra time til time i Iran-krigen, men her er min foreløpige analyse. snoen.substack.com/p/trump-valg...

The Law of Going to War With Iran Right or wrong, the executive branch likely thinks Trump has the legal authority to do it—at least until Congress or the courts say otherwise.

Earlier today, the United States and Israel conducted a significant military operation against Iran.

Last summer, @sranderson.bsky.social explored the legality of the Trump administration potentially engaging in military action against Iran.