Michael A. Gayed, CFA

BREAKING: Fed officials hint 3% inflation is still ‘too high’. Translation: no Santa Claus rate cut this year. Hawks and doves at the FOMC fight club keep investors guessing. Higher for longer… just got even longer.

Capitalism isn’t driven by ideology; it’s driven by consumption.

If AI replaces workers faster than new jobs form, we face a paradox: abundance with no one left to buy it.

Productivity without income = deflation.

This is the real systemic risk.

UBI isn’t about generosity.

It’s maintenance.

If automation breaks the wage → spending → profit loop, the system must replace wages to survive.

UBI becomes the new oil that keeps the engine running.

Warren Buffett is sitting on $350B in cash and short-term Treasuries—the largest corporate cash pile in history.

When the greatest value investor can’t find value, that’s not a footnote.

That’s the signal.

Elevated equity markets are lifting the spirits of the wealthiest households, while confidence wanes among lower-income earners.

President Trump expects Q3 GDP to expand by at least 4.2%.

Who knows?

For now, the data is nowhere to be seen.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped to 50.3 this month, down from 53.6 in October and below expectations of 53.2.

This marks the second-lowest reading ever recorded.

The US Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index fell 2% month-over-month in October 2025, the biggest monthly drop since April of last year.

Post your used car ads below.

China's exports unexpectedly slipped by 1.1% year-on-year to $305.4 billion in October 2025, the lowest in eight years, and far off from forecasts expecting a 3% increase

The ongoing government shutdown, inflation, and worsening personal finances have all contributed to a decline in consumer sentiment and a dip in the dollar's value.

The continued government shutdown means we're flying blind in this economy with another missed jobs report.

Actually, scratch that.

We're not really flying much at all in this economy.

While we don't have the official nonfarm payrolls report for October from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, if it had been released, economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect it would have shown a loss of 60,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.5%.

The Institute for Supply Management says the US manufacturing sector shrank for the eighth straight month in October, with the Manufacturing PMI coming in a 48.7%, a 0.4 percentage point drop from September's 49.1%.

While the Manufacturing PMI may have fallen, the ISM Services PMI recorded a 2.4 percentage point increase in October, hitting 52.4%, moving back into expansion territory.

The average rate on a 30-year U.S. mortgage moved higher for the first time in five weeks.

The average rate ticked up to 6.22%, rising from last week's 6.17%, which was the lowest level in over a year.

The National Retail Federation estimates U.S. holiday spending will surpass $1 trillion for the first time this year, with total sales rising between 3.7% and 4.2% compared to 2024.

Thanks to sky-high equity markets, the wealthiest 10% of American households are fueling nearly half of all US spending, masking weaknesses among low- and middle-class families.

Despite the National Retail Federation forecasting record holiday spending this year, retailers are expected to add just 265K to 365K workers this season, down from 442K in 2024.

According to a survey by point-of-sale and payments system platform Lightspeed, one in four consumers says they plan to leverage Black Friday sales not to buy a new TV, but to pick up everyday essentials like groceries, toiletries, and household basics.

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Utilities have quietly outperformed in 2025, yet sentiment is still bearish.

That’s precisely what late-cycle leadership looks like.

When complacency is high and everyone chases growth, defensives get ignored… right before they matter most.

AI is driving one of the largest structural shifts in power demand in decades.

Data centers don’t run on “software optimism," they run on electricity.

Utilities are the backbone of the AI boom, but the market is treating them like an afterthought.

That’s not a bug. That’s an opportunity.

The S&P 500 sitting above its 50-day moving average looks bullish.

But when only a handful of mega-caps are holding it up, that’s not strength, it’s concentration risk.

The index is rising, but the market beneath it is deteriorating.

Don’t confuse calm at the surface with stability underneath.