Mike Brewer

Updated child poverty forecasts reflecting latest forecast and child poverty strategy. Poverty set to fall through the Parliament - we estimate by a chunky 300k but by a less chunky 1%. That's because the number of kids in the population is also falling.

NEW ANALYSIS: Today the Government announced its new Child Poverty Strategy. But what might it mean for the outlook for child poverty in this Parliament, and how does it compare to progress on reducing child poverty in recent decades?

New RF analysis answers these questions....

This is all a bit of a shame, because the abolition of the two-child limit is a major deal for children in large families, and child poverty.

The government's child poverty target: how much progress has been made? | Institute for Fiscal Studies Before the 2001 election the Treasury said that `tax and benefit reforms announced in this Parliament will lift over 1.2 million children out of relative poverty. But official figures released on 11…

This is a massive throwback to the first Blair government, and the "over 1 million children lifted out of poverty" claim (which was an example of the former statement). See ifs.org.uk/publications... for a discussion of that claim!

Potential for confusion today over child poverty numbers. Govt statements are not super clear on what is "this is what policies have done to child poverty compared with the counter-factual" and "this is how much lower child poverty will be by end of Parliament than it is now".

Debt at 40% lol

Not that weird - it actually paid off! Very cheap to set up, and a good way to make some money on the very slim chance that it worked.

LinkedIn Pulse

In non-Budget news, last week I appeared at the UK Covid Inquiry , talking about how well (or not) the economic interventions had been designed with inequality in mind.

Here is a short write-up of my conclusions and recommendations.

www.linkedin.com/pulse/econom...

Having been in the depths of COVID era policy recently for the Inquiry, a very striking theme was how moat people were aghast at how little money was available through social security when times were tough. Now imagine being a disabled lone parent...

The article should really have said: "Look! We have a welfare state that gives you support if you are disabled and money to feed and clothe your children, and tries (not that hard, admittedly) to prevent you from being homeless".

Another one of those crazy Telegraph articles this weekend which, for some unknown reason, compares a healthy DINKY to a disabled single parent with three children.

And yet they've not managed to find the families of the half a million kids to be lifted out of poverty... 🤔

I'm in the FT! Fun fact that didn't make the cut. Scrooge lived somewhere near Cornhill so we reckon will, post mansion tax, pay 0.2% of the value of his property from that and CT combined. Tiny Tim rents in Camden in a band D property so will pay 0.4%.

Old style Twitter is back, baby.

"It will certainly take political courage to stick to these plans."

@ruthcurtice.bsky.social has everything you need to know about the Budget, in two minutes ⏰ ⤵️

And highlights how pointless the speech is.

Live posting about the speech feels slightly unnecessary when all the details are out. But I'm a sucker for tradition nonetheless.

Surely you've already read it ? Kaboomtish

8 out of 11 but one was a silly mistake so I'm giving myself 8.5.

(Btw this is what Chancellors do when they get OBR forecasts 🤣)

Quiz: How well do you know your Budgets? Test your knowledge of the set-piece political event with our questions on the financial statements of yesteryear

Quiz: How well do you know your Budgets? on.ft.com/3XAbkGa

It really is worth taking the time to hear from people like “Mary,” who fled from Zimbabwe 20 years ago, to understand what life is like when the law denies you the chance to call the country where you’ve made your life home

New spotlight from me covering what the latest inflation data means for benefit uprating out now. Here’s a quick summary:

We are keen to hear from individuals withexperience working in government, think tanks, applied academic research, or the private sector.

This is a permanent role at our Westminster office. Applications for full-time or part-time hours are welcome.

www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp...

This is a high-profile role, and successful applicants will need experience of leading major research or policy programmes, and line managing a team of high-performing individuals. Post-graduate level economics (or equivalent work experience) is essential.

New week, new job at Resolution Foundation?

We have a vacancy at the top of our research team to plan and manage major strands of our research and policy output. In particular, they will develop and lead our work on growth and productivity, building on the Economy 2030 Inquiry.

Meant to read it when it came out. @chrisgiles.ft.com makes the case that costs are NOT spiralling, and UK welfare doesn't deserve its moral panic. on.ft.com/4hfE9kr

📢 New analysis!

What is the OBR’s forecast for trend productivity growth, and why does it matter so much for the Budget?

Find out more here ⤵️ buff.ly/KmJEg1Y

"The wealth tax debate shouldn’t be separate from the one about how we tax property and pensions – that’s where most of the country’s wealth sits."  c/o @resfoundation.bsky.social Bet it will continue to be, though. 🙄

Part of the Inequalities Seminar Series Tuesday 30 September, 12.30 - 1.30pm. In-person and online seminar. CBG 2.03. Speaker: Dr Katy Morris, Postdoctoral Fellow, Swedish Institute for Social… LSE III Event | Local versus National: The effect of income (mis)perceptions on inequality beliefs

Missed our recent Inequalities Seminar?

@katymorris.bsky.social explores the effects of income misperceptions on inequality beliefs and preferences, comparing the local and national levels.

Watch now ⬇️

Lifetime of earnings not enough for UK workers to join wealthiest 10%, report says Research finds it would take average worker saving all their earnings for 52 years to match wealth of richest 10th of society

My small contribution to today's great RF report on wealth inequality was to have us headline with the metric for measuring wealth gaps that I first came across in the work of the late John Hills

www.theguardian.com/inequality/2...