MB

Been considering how I’m happy to own stocks, but not the market. US markets showing death crosses & today WisdomTree Quality Growth #ggrg too. Going to venture a change: high-PEG large-cap quality underperforms- passive has gone too far. Stock-pickers market? Or just cope? 🤔

Nobody Knows (Yet Again) Podcast Episode · The Memo by Howard Marks · 09/04/2025 · 35m

Recommended: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...

I don’t trust this bounce, possible bear market rally. May fade as investors refocus in the future.

That said, small top up on Ashtead Tech #AT.l. P/E 12.7, Fwd PEG 0.5, ROCE 15%, ROIC 13%.

Reckon he’s finding an off-ramp. In two minds.

I bought: Amazon, Shift Four, F5, Nvidia, Broadcom. So that bolt has been shot.

But also moved the smaller remainder of my pension that was in equities into cash funds, to move once the dust settles.

Small top-up on Gaming Realms #gmr.l

Dropped Time Finance this week - Cheap on some metrics & growing, but don’t fancy holding an immature high yield business lender priced above its book into a potentially large downturn.

20% cash, waiting to see how this pans out.

Pension also only 25% equities.

Bargains await.

Feels to me like a bid is nailed on based on prior behaviour. Just depends on price, but let’s see.

Have Ashtead Tech and Time Finance reporting tomorrow - some big hopes there also. Time Finance seems obviously mis-priced, but only one way to find out - maybe everyone else knows something.

Here’s hoping fair value wins out then! 😀

A refinancing package without a deal could end up making more over the medium term anyway. That said, I bought in at 40p for a short-term opp, so it’d be kinda nice if we could just get a decent bid.

No, I bought recently as it seems to me a quality company, completely mismanaged, trading far below its value and not needing as much recapitalisation as people are making out, and has a clear suitor.

I reckon a bid around 130p splits fair value with distressed asset.

In it together 🫡

You in this one too?

US market has surged driven by years of massive deficit spending (and cheap energy, low tax, huge internal market, etc). Now the US seems headed towards switching off the tap.

Meanwhile in Germany….

Looks like time to add that Euro area subscription to Stockopedia!

Grok 3, AI Memory & Voice, China, DOGE, Public Market Pull Back | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner Podcast Episode · BG2Pod with Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley · 01/03/2025 · 1h 3m

The DG2 podcast is the most insightful tech & investment analysis on a weekly basis. Highly recommended. podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/b...

Brad Gerstner pointing out US austerity, plus stage of AI roll out (high capex, fast depreciation, revenues trailing) have him 50% underweight.

#at. first bought in Jan ‘24, sold
at £7.30 & rebought in Nov. Gaming Realms in May & Oct ‘24. Others were from H2 ‘24. Like all of them. #AT & #WATR roll-up compounders, #ALU value added quality, #YU growth record, #GMR consistent quality growth, Time has an overhang and too cheap + great growth.

I think the US, and so wider market, could be wobbly so moving from some of my more highly valued pure growth stocks (Wise, Nu, Transmedics, Concurrent) into the lower P/E GARP stocks might be worthwhile. And many of those I mentioned have unbelievable prices for the metrics IMO.

I just feel they offer such compelling value at these prices - on the most part they all have strong consistent growth, high quality, good cash generation, low values.

Feeling tempted to sell everything else and just go all in on Yu Group, Time Finance, Alumasc, Water Intelligence, Gaming Realms and Ashtead Technology.

🤷

#yu.l #time.l #alu.l #watr.l #gmr.l #at.l

Seem to have found myself buying some Time Finance. Also added to Water Intelligence yesterday.

In a move to derisk had previously trimmed Wise, Concurrent and Synectics, and sold Games Workshop. Tilting towards lower P/E positions. Bargains galore again.

Backed out of Warpaint $w7l.l smallish trade - don’t like the price action. Nasty price action on Yu Group $yu.l, but tempted to add there.

I did the same this morning at 398p.

After seeing the new broker notes I got back in with a small position for a trade. Not sure how long I will hold though.

👍

Stockopedia. It’s great.

Comes with the sector - if you compare them to peers the margin is very high, due to focusing on value added products. The same big margins also give them a high return on capital.

Everyone has to make their own decision. Personally I am not adding due to downgrades & warnings tending to repeat. I added to Alumasc instead - I had sold out anticipating a warning given the sector, but actually did very well. Warpaint are a Great British success story though. What are you doing?

Not touching for a while now.

Potential for the drop visible from prior broker comments, delayed TU & lost momentum/death cross. Did they wait for a big order to get the +15% out.

Now looking at YU. And AT. with similar SP behaviour, but in both cases I don’t want to sell. I suspect overhangs. 🤔

Sold at 309p Nov 26th, bought today 300p.

Seems like bargains everywhere again to me. Rebought Alumasc - fears of a slowdown came to nought. 20% YoY H1 growth and bought for a similar price I sold for several months ago. P/E 10.4, PCF 9.9, 7% forecast earnings growth, ROIC 17.2%. Organic growth in all units.

EnSilica 👀

Things seem to be looking up. Bought today.

#ensi.l

Reluctantly sold out of Warpaint #w7l.l:
- Slowing sales momentum (Broker says transitory)
- Loss of SP momentum
- Lack of trading update
- Added risk from being relatively high P/FCF, P/E and forward PEG compared to some other holdings
- Death cross

Hopefully will get back in.

Thank you and a very good point. Still, once it finds its price and rebases I’ll be buying back in. Great company.

Wonder when Novo Nordisk will stop falling. IMO it’ll be one hell of a buy when it does! Price alerts all set.

First two stocks on my buy list for 2025 already lined up. Both US small cap growth companies that have been clobbered since the Summer, despite growth trajectory remaining intact. Waiting on price to moving averages shifting to an uptrend before buying in both cases.