Keir Giles

Me too. Let's find out.

Screenshot from linked article regarding Siil and potential British withdrawal of Challenger tanks from Estonia.

Combat in Ukraine won't be a blueprint for every future war. But no army can still fight as though it's 2021.

Will findings from the Siil / Hedgehog 2025 exercise in Estonia serve as a "catalyst for change" across the UK's land forces, as some defence experts hope? And if so, what kind of change?

Screenshot from linked article regarding Siil and potential British withdrawal of Challenger tanks from Estonia.

Combat in Ukraine won't be a blueprint for every future war. But no army can still fight as though it's 2021.

Will findings from the Siil / Hedgehog 2025 exercise in Estonia serve as a "catalyst for change" across the UK's land forces, as some defence experts hope? And if so, what kind of change?

Yes. It’s deliberate though (no time or inclination to get into debates with editors about whether it’s Persian Gulf or Arabian Gulf, and they seem to prefer it that way too…)

I promise you, Iran has plenty of snow. But yes, this was Canada.

Trump’s war has exposed how unprotected we are from an Iranian attack As Iran’s foreign ministry warns the war could soon spread beyond its borders and affect Europe, conflict expert Keir Giles explains why we are wholly unprepared for what could happen and facing the s...

*not just Iranian.

(Once again, we don’t write the headlines.)

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/m...

Don’t forget you can alternatively move to an assisted living bungalow.

More evidence of Europeans happy to protect other partners but not Ukraine

Watch: British F-35 scores first recorded combat kill

www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2...

You can hear the gritting of the Guardian’s teeth when it is forced to admit that something Trump has said is not “half-truth or no truth”, but actually true.

Sorry, I mean has “a nugget of some truth”, of course.

Screenshot of BBC News story with Trump saying "This is not Winston Churchill that we're dealing with".

Not exactly a revelation. Can I just point out that the phrase "Keir Starmer is no Winston Churchill" was explicitly and specifically cut from something I wrote 18 months ago on the grounds that it would alienate a core readership demographic of London lefties. Maybe now we're allowed to say it.

Screenshot from linked article saying precisely that.

The war on Iran impacts not just material balance but also the normative legitimacy of Moscow’s grand strategic conception, observes Grégoire Roos, Director of the Europe and Russia and Eurasia Programmes at Chatham House.

www.chathamhouse.org/2026/03/iran...

Oh he very much did. Every time!

Who Will Defend Europe?: An Awakened Russia and a Sleeping Continent Who Will Defend Europe?: An Awakened Russia and a Sleeping Continent [Giles, Keir] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. Who Will Defend Europe?: An Awakened Russia and a Sleeping Continent

The book, in case through some unfortunate accident you still don't have it in paperback or haven't listened to it read in my best soothing bedtime story voice -

amzn.to/3OSsY6W

YouTube video by Joseph Kusluch Who Will Defend Europe? | Keir Giles on NATO, Russia, and Europe’s Security Crisis

Thanks to @josephkusluch.bsky.social for reviewing 'Who Will Defend Europe?' and recommending it to his students.

Depressing, still, that it was possible to write a book in 2024 describing so much of the mess we would be in two years later.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6wC...

"I am very disappointed in Keir", it says.

Not every day I see a Daily Telegraph banner headline with a direct quote from my primary school headmaster.

No it was more “the other side will have read the same books too so we know exactly what they will do”.

I’m glad it’s well hidden. Consider it an OSINF test.

Well it has become easier to make the point.

Heading from magazine page saying "Behind the pen of history - A look inside the life of Keir Giles, former Senior Consulting Fellow at Chatham House and Historian of Russia"

Gosh well this all sounds very portentous.

You rang?

Yeeeees????

I’ll keep you posted!

LOT aircraft in the dark

Now aircraft number three, and it’s… already dark. Fingers crossed this one works!

"[E]uropean leaders should not look at the dogged endurance of Ukraine’s armed forces and civilians over the last four years and assume that it is infinite, and that Putin will eventually be forced to give up his attack on Ukraine. No-one knows the limit of Ukrainian stubbornness, but there is one. To paraphrase Ernest Hemingway, Ukraine could be defeated “gradually, then suddenly”. To prevent a decisive Russian breakthrough, European leaders should be prepared to intervene militarily to help Ukraine, without waiting for a ceasefire – starting by deploying air defence assets, including aircraft based in Poland and Romania, to reduce the impact of Russian strikes on Ukraine’s civilian and industrial infrastructure."

"Ukraine’s security is Europe’s security", is one of the points in a brilliant article by Ian Bond, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform. Ambassador Bond was previously with the UK's diplomatic service. @cerianbond.bsky.social @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social
www.cer.eu/insights/fou...

Yes - still same flight number. Such a good flight number that it’s now showing on the departure board TWICE, one departed, one delayed… fair enough, we did in fact depart before coming back again!

Haha thanks but it’s all fine - today’s one of those rare days when I can be a few hours late with no dramas!

Aaaaand now we’re off the second aircraft. First one had evidence of bird strike found in an engine on pre-flight checks, second one showed a hydraulic fault after engine start and a wee bit of taxiing… now let’s see if they can find a backup backup aircraft!

A baggage handler slinging my suitcase.

Well we may be delayed and changing to a new gate after the first aeroplane broke, but at least I can be confident that my baggage has been firmly flung onto the correct new aircraft.

TVP (Polish TV) front door

I’ve had to say no to them so many times in recent months that it’s a nice change to be able to say yes.

The UK's plan for civilians in a war is terrifying – you're on your own We claim to follow Sweden and Japan, but we could barely be less prepared

The trouble is, there's another big gap between ambition and action right there. I summarised some of the key problems, and the newspaper decided that was alarming enough to headline it "The UK's plan for civilians in a war is terrifying – you're on your own".

3/3

inews.co.uk/opinion/uks-...