Dario Perkins

we are in a weird place. Everyone is talking massive AI job losses - its affecting markets (look at US yields) but there is no way to prove them wrong. So what, we just wait and see?!

No

Think so

🤣

even "mostly" would be a wild exaggeration. How about "a bit"

what annoys me is when people say "its only AI" or "there would be a recession without AI". That's the dumb shit

i'd say less than 0.5% but that's not a crazy take - so no fight here

funny how this series peaked BEFORE Chat-GPT and the job losses have SLOWED with the rapid adoption of AI.

But don't let the facts gets in the way of a narrative

If you can't beat em.... ⏳

You have a new technology that makes your workers more efficient. It has 85% reliability but is cheap. Do you a) encourage your workforce to oversee the tech, massively expand their output, and pay them more? Or b) fire them all and use the tech yourself/autonomously?

10,000 word substack to follow

My own reliability is 99%.. so thats my standard 🤣

Its from this website based on a new paper hal.cs.princeton.edu/reliability/...

an extra trillion dollars buys you surprisingly little in terms of AI reliability...

and this seems like the better comparison

was thinking about this chart:

yeah total bullshit

no more than non-grads, which is the only proper comparison because youth joblessness inevitably rises in an economy with no hiring or firing

the quarterly capex contributions are not that large, and as you say, it misses imports - the import intensity of that stuff is huge

everything you read about AI is someone's FORECAST. To date, there is no evidence it has raised economy-wide productivity or destroyed jobs (even among graduates). Even the impact of the capex on GDP - which is a real thing - has been wildly overstated for the past 12 months

5000 word AI-generated posts about the end of the software industry. Its fucking painful

X has a bad case of AI derangement syndrome. Just wall-to-wall boosterism for weeks now

So it turns out that after all these tariffs changes, the hit to govt revenue is 0.3%pts of GDP.

0.3% - always the answer to everything in macro.

The only true law of economics

Doing something once that kills all (non-AI) capex and hiring is pretty dumb. But then someone gives you an out and you do it all again...? 🤣

🤣 same

unfortunately the companies that have already raised their prices due to the tariffs aren't gonna cut them again... thats not how this works. But we are gonna get a nice fiscal boost, on top of the boost that was already coming.

Rubinomics 2.0, my ass

TRUMP’S GLOBAL TARIFFS STRUCK DOWN BY U.S. SUPREME COURT ...

Me Dario
🤝
hating this dumb
narrative

3 more months guaranteed now...

why weren't sellside economists smart enough to figure out that the govt shutdown wasn't captured in tracking estimates of GDP? There is no monthly data release for that...