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Dario Perkins

@darioperkins.bsky.social

MD Global Macro, macro themes/research/risks, central-bank specialist, started career at HM Treasury in late 90s, ex ABN AMRO, AC Milan fan

27,637 Followers  |  572 Following  |  1,338 Posts  |  Joined: 19.10.2023
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Posts by Dario Perkins (@darioperkins.bsky.social)

Sorry mate. That was SO bad last night

06.03.2026 20:08 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

What a shit week. Thank f*** i dont support Spurs...

06.03.2026 20:02 — 👍 14    🔁 1    💬 2    📌 1

maybe without all the f***wittery

06.03.2026 14:22 — 👍 17    🔁 2    💬 2    📌 2

I blame Citrini........... 🤣

06.03.2026 14:12 — 👍 15    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0

somebody pissed on my green shoots in the labour market.

Then poured oil all over them

06.03.2026 13:59 — 👍 23    🔁 1    💬 3    📌 0

Great thread.

What astonishes me is that these Buy European clauses are supposedly covered by the EU's legal powers.

04.03.2026 20:30 — 👍 35    🔁 4    💬 3    📌 0

I just think thats the most ChatGPT response ever... do something really clever, then overplay its hand and get something really basic wrong

04.03.2026 19:22 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

Asked ChatGPT if hulahoops are low fodmap. So it scanned all the ingredients and confirmed that yes, they are, as long as I stick to the plain, salted ones - the BLUE ones 🤣

04.03.2026 19:17 — 👍 12    🔁 1    💬 1    📌 0

Absolutely this. My brother is a surgeon; he's used Claude to write an app for his patients. It's not a masterpiece and it won't change the economy, but it is easier for them than trying to fill in timesheets of how much exercise they are able to take. Sensible scepticism has to recognise reality.

04.03.2026 15:06 — 👍 495    🔁 44    💬 27    📌 7

IRAN WAR OPERATIONAL TIMEFRAME, ACCORDING TO WHITE HOUSE/PENTAGON:

Saturday: “days”
Sunday: “a week”
Monday: “four weeks”
Tuesday: “four to five weeks”
Wednesday: “eight weeks”

They have no idea what they are doing or what they have unleashed.

04.03.2026 16:40 — 👍 425    🔁 158    💬 22    📌 11

🤣

03.03.2026 19:54 — 👍 3    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

we are in a weird place. Everyone is talking massive AI job losses - its affecting markets (look at US yields) but there is no way to prove them wrong. So what, we just wait and see?!

27.02.2026 11:48 — 👍 54    🔁 5    💬 1    📌 0

No

26.02.2026 23:42 — 👍 3    🔁 1    💬 1    📌 0

Think so

26.02.2026 18:19 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

🤣

26.02.2026 18:19 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

even "mostly" would be a wild exaggeration. How about "a bit"

26.02.2026 16:23 — 👍 1    🔁 1    💬 1    📌 0

what annoys me is when people say "its only AI" or "there would be a recession without AI". That's the dumb shit

26.02.2026 16:17 — 👍 2    🔁 1    💬 1    📌 0

i'd say less than 0.5% but that's not a crazy take - so no fight here

26.02.2026 16:15 — 👍 3    🔁 1    💬 2    📌 0
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funny how this series peaked BEFORE Chat-GPT and the job losses have SLOWED with the rapid adoption of AI.

But don't let the facts gets in the way of a narrative

26.02.2026 16:13 — 👍 34    🔁 4    💬 2    📌 1
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If you can't beat em.... ⏳

25.02.2026 16:48 — 👍 69    🔁 6    💬 2    📌 1

You have a new technology that makes your workers more efficient. It has 85% reliability but is cheap. Do you a) encourage your workforce to oversee the tech, massively expand their output, and pay them more? Or b) fire them all and use the tech yourself/autonomously?

10,000 word substack to follow

25.02.2026 13:39 — 👍 139    🔁 17    💬 12    📌 3

My own reliability is 99%.. so thats my standard 🤣

24.02.2026 17:30 — 👍 4    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
HAL Reliability Evaluation Accuracy isn't enough. We evaluate AI agents on reliability — consistency, predictability, robustness, safety, and self-awareness.

Its from this website based on a new paper hal.cs.princeton.edu/reliability/...

24.02.2026 17:25 — 👍 2    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 1
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an extra trillion dollars buys you surprisingly little in terms of AI reliability...

24.02.2026 17:20 — 👍 30    🔁 8    💬 2    📌 1
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and this seems like the better comparison

24.02.2026 17:18 — 👍 29    🔁 8    💬 2    📌 0
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was thinking about this chart:

24.02.2026 17:18 — 👍 21    🔁 4    💬 1    📌 0

yeah total bullshit

24.02.2026 15:40 — 👍 5    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

no more than non-grads, which is the only proper comparison because youth joblessness inevitably rises in an economy with no hiring or firing

24.02.2026 15:16 — 👍 9    🔁 0    💬 2    📌 0

the quarterly capex contributions are not that large, and as you say, it misses imports - the import intensity of that stuff is huge

24.02.2026 15:08 — 👍 5    🔁 1    💬 1    📌 0