Con Flambers

It's also a nakedly unconstitutional assault on the right to vote of the people who live in heavily Democratic areas. But I could see the Republicans convincing themselves that their problems stem mostly from huge swings against them in Democratic areas. My rebuttal is here printed in full: lol

We got a preview of November last night in that I think the GOP is going to try legal chicanery in Dem base counties, like they did in Dallas County.

One reason I think this strategy will fail: the GOP is seeing losses of support across most places - big, small, urban, suburban, even rural.

Relatedly, I remember when the Democrats posted a video of cats explaining the government shutdown last year in baby voices and it got like half a million likes

What's his secret? Big fossil fuel guy or something?

It is so damning of US news media that so many outlets refuse to just straight up say that Senator Tim Sheehy assaulted an activist.

He did not "help" Capitol police. They did not need his help. He wanted to assault the guy and did. He should resign.

As a history person, I often find myself getting Deeply Interested in a year or era for a while and trying to learn many things about that time. Right now my current preoccupation is 1966

One thing I have learned from engaging in discussion of Palestine long enough is that pedantic arguing about semantics, as seen in the screenshot, is a smokescreen to avoid speaking plainly of the cruel reality of the occupation in the West Bank.

Who got us into "a situation like this?"

What is it with Montana Republicans and physically attacking people they disagree with? I still remember when Greg Gianforte BODY SLAMMED a reporter, that was literally how I learned who Greg Gianforte was

To be clear, I am very confident that Talarico recognizes this deficit and will work to rectify it. Just was a notable dynamic of the election.

Seems clear that Talarico has work to do with Black voters. He did very well with Latinos and whites, but got blown out by Crockett on the Black vote. She was poised to do well with Black voters, but I'm not sure Talarico even got ~20% (would love a rough estimate here)

I mean also, 12 hours for some issues is NOT a small amount of time. Sepsis can develop quickly with nasty infections.

Logistics is woke. Supply is woke. End-state planning is woke. Force protection? Believe it or not, woke

Not really sure why I saw some people saying that because the US doesn't get much oil from the Middle East, the war with Iran wouldn't much affect prices. Gas went from ~$2.50 where I live to $3.00 practically overnight. Not at all the most important thing here, but yeah - people notice that.

"Everyone knows that a viable ceasefire will be based on giving up on Donbas and Crimea" viable for whom, exactly?

As someone who does indeed live paycheck to paycheck, few feelings better than when you get paid and can immediately pay bills, put money into savings, etc.

Kinda funny how Texas has both an "Austin" and a "Houston" county, yet neither have Austin or Houston in them.

My friend @em19em19.bsky.social and I did a pod about the current state of things. Come for the roasting of this admin and its vicious incompetence, stay for the hopeful perspective from my cohost and dear friend straight from the heart of Minneapolis:

www.buzzsprout.com/343523/episo...

LIEU: Did Amalia commit a crime?

NOEM: She did not. She's with her family

LIEU: The reason she's with her family is because she almost died in ICE detention until folks brought a lawsuit forcing her release

A majority of the Israeli electorate wants the things they're getting from their government. This is one reason why sanctions are important and should be broad-based. Israelis need to understand that their policies have consequences.

Props to Jasmine Crockett for doing the right thing here and conceding to Talarico + encouraging people to support him.

I think the lesson here is that slick and sleazy propaganda can only do so much when people are actually seeing things for themselves. Hence the whole thing about how "the party wanted you to disregard both your eyes and ears; it was their final and most essential command."

Jasmine Crockett is 44? Def thought she was like 38. Figured Texas Senate was a race between 2 ambitious thirtysomething millennials (tho if you use the standard definition for millennial of 1981-1996, Crockett would count as an elder millennial)

High-speed visual of gamblers being loudly wrong until they get punched in the face by reality. Stop using betting markets as reportable "data." It’s worthless.

7. Durham reform-y DA prevails. Charlotte sheriff survives.
8. Party-switching Fort Bend Co. exec ousted in GOP primary.
9. "Doge Texas" candidate wins comptroller primary.
10. Foushee up 1%; no AP call yet.
11. Other close races: Dallas DA. Berger-Pace. Arkansas SoS.

What else jumps out at you?

What we know, final edition—in 2 parts.

1. Progressives oust 3 Dems who were helping GOP in NC.
2. Dems flip legislative seat in AR.
3. Al Green + Dan Crenshaw down big.
4. #TXSen? Talarico up. GOP runoff.
5. Right holds supreme court seat in AR, but no blowout.
6. TX far-right generally strong.

Could strike "about an election" from the sentence and it would still ring true

Obviously it's just one special election and aggregated data tends to be more reliable, but consider: the Reps won the generic ballot and pres popular vote by ~2 points in 2024. A 17 point shift from that means a D+15 environment, which I would say is in the realm of possibility in November.