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T.S. Kelso

@tskelso.bsky.social

Operator of CelesTrak, the world's first source for orbital element sets and related software and educational materials.

367 Followers  |  14 Following  |  491 Posts  |  Joined: 30.11.2024  |  2.3548

Latest posts by tskelso.bsky.social on Bluesky

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CelesTrak has GP data for 3 of 4 objects from the launch (2025-266) of Shijian-30 A-C atop a Long March-2C rocket from Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center on Nov 19 at 0401 UTC: www.china-in-space.com/p/new-space-.... Data for the launch can be found at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....

20.11.2025 06:11 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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CelesTrak has ephemeris-based SupGP data for all 29 satellites from the Starlink G6-94 launch (2025-265) atop a Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral on 2025-11-19 at 00:12:20 UTC: spaceflightnow.com/2025/11/18/l.... Data for the launch can be found at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....

19.11.2025 20:06 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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CelesTrak has GP data for 1 object from the launch (2025-264) of Sentinel-6B atop a Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg SFB on Nov 17 at 0521 UTC: www.nasaspaceflight.com/2025/11/sent.... Data for the launch can be found at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....

17.11.2025 19:18 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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CelesTrak has GP data for 2 objects from the launch (2025-261) of ViaSat-3 F2 atop an Atlas V rocket from Cape Canaveral on Nov 14 at 0304 UTC: spaceflightnow.com/2025/11/13/l.... Data for the launch can be found at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....

17.11.2025 08:17 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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CelesTrak has ephemeris-based SupGP data for all 29 satellites from the Starlink G6-85 launch (2025-263) atop a Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral on 2025-11-15 at 06:44:20 UTC: spaceflightnow.com/2025/11/14/l.... Data for the launch can be found at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....

15.11.2025 18:32 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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CelesTrak has ephemeris-based SupGP data for all 29 satellites from the Starlink G6-89 launch (2025-262) atop a Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral on 2025-11-15 at 03:08:10 UTC: spaceflightnow.com/2025/11/14/l.... Data for the launch can be found at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....

15.11.2025 18:31 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I don't know. Remember, it is a prediction not an observation. For questions about the prediction model and its accuracy, you would have to contact NOAA. CelesTrak does not generate this data, it only makes it easily available and there is a link to the source for more info.

15.11.2025 02:40 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Note: The GP data for this object is invalid since it significantly violates several of the key assumptions used in the development of SGP4. It is actually in a heliocentric orbit on the way to Mars. It has been marked as such on CelesTrak and no GP data will be returned.

15.11.2025 02:36 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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CelesTrak has GP data for 1 object from the launch (2025-260) of ESCAPADE atop a New Glenn rocket from Cape Canaveral on Nov 13 at 2055 UTC: www.nasa.gov/news-release.... Data for the launch can be found at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....

15.11.2025 02:32 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Elevated conditions continue. Perhaps a good time to look for enhanced Northern & Southern Lights.

12.11.2025 21:03 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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NOAA is reporting and predicting elevated geomagnetic activity: celestrak.org/SpaceData/. Expect to see increased prediction errors in all LEO orbital data.

12.11.2025 03:57 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

No GP data yet available, when it is see: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....

12.11.2025 02:28 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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18 SDS has cataloged 10 objects from the launch (2025-258) of Guowang Group 13 atop a Long March-12 rocket from Wenchang Space Launch Site on Nov 10 at 0241 UTC: www.china-in-space.com/p/guowang-re.... SATCAT data can be found at: celestrak.org/satcat/table....

12.11.2025 02:27 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

No GP data yet available, when it is see: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....

12.11.2025 01:58 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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18 SDS has cataloged 3 objects from the launch (2025-256) of Chutian-2 01 & 02 atop a Lijian-1 rocket from Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center on Nov 9 at 0332 UTC: www.china-in-space.com/p/cas-space-.... SATCAT data can be found at: celestrak.org/satcat/table....

12.11.2025 01:57 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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No GP data yet available, when it is see: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....

Note: For some reason, 18 SDS incorrectly shows the first 3 objects launched from JSC instead of YSLA, like the rocket body.

12.11.2025 01:37 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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18 SDS has cataloged 4 objects from the launch (2025-255) of Shiyan-32 01-03 atop a Long March-11 rocket from waters off Shandong Province on Nov 8 at 2101 UTC: www.china-in-space.com/p/anonymous-.... SATCAT data can be found at: celestrak.org/satcat/table....

12.11.2025 01:32 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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CelesTrak has ephemeris-based SupGP data for all 29 satellites from the Starlink G6-87 launch (2025-259) atop a Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral on 2025-11-11 at 03:21:30 UTC: spaceflightnow.com/2025/11/10/l.... Data for the launch can be found at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....

12.11.2025 00:28 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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That means we have no GP data from USSF for the last SIX launches--except for the SupGP produced by CelesTrak for the last 3 Starlink launches. And there are 5 more launches--3 of them Starlink--scheduled before the end of the week: new.nextspaceflight.com/launches/?q=....

11.11.2025 01:00 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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The latest 18 SDS GP data meltdown continues. Almost all of the data is over 2 days old and the mean age is at 3.07 days old. And 4,437 of the 10,087 RSOs we have SupGP data for have an 18 SDS RMS of over 25 km. No doubt the other 18,872 RSOs have data just as bad. Why is this even condoned?

11.11.2025 00:27 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The current GP statistics can be found at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen.... The current SupGP vs. GP Comparisons can be found at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....

10.11.2025 08:31 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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With the latest dropout of 18 SDS GP data, the mean age of the data is now over 2.4 days old and almost nothing has been updated in the past day. The result is that 3,782 objects with SupGP data have an 18 SDS GP RMS difference of over 25 km--7 more than 10,000 km RMS.

10.11.2025 08:23 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0
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CelesTrak has ephemeris-based SupGP data for 28 of 29 satellites from the Starlink G10-51 launch (2025-257) atop a Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral on 2025-11-09 at 08:10:10 UTC: spaceflightnow.com/2025/11/07/l.... Data for the launch can be found at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....

09.11.2025 19:31 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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CelesTrak has ephemeris-based SupGP data for all 28 satellites from the Starlink G11-14 launch (2025-254) atop a Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg SFB on 2025-11-06 at 21:13:50 UTC: spaceflightnow.com/2025/11/06/l.... Data for the launch can be found at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....

07.11.2025 15:26 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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I'll end this thread with this: When you--and especially USSF leadership--dismiss these 'little' errors, you are enabling complacency. There are serious issues with the GP, SP, and CDM data being ignored, as well, as shown at: celestrak.org/publications.... This won't end well for space safety...

06.11.2025 23:18 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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And then 18 SDS effectively changed the catalog numbers for the cross-tag. Once SpaceX changes to use those, the data STILL won't match. SpaceX knows which object is which and 18 SDS needs to match their IDs.

This stuff makes my head hurt. And it happens almost every day. Now you know, too...

06.11.2025 23:10 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Today's other errors include "STATLINK" for SSC 66146 and assigning the wrong launch site for all of 2025-240 and adding an extra "9" in the name for SSC 66193 (manual editing rather than M2M).

06.11.2025 23:01 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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18 SDS 'fixed' this problem by changing SSC 66177 to STARLINK-35352. But they didn't change 2025-242C to 2025-243A, the Owner to US, or the launch site to AFETR.

In our update process, yellow shows changes, which is how we catch most errors. The non-changes almost slipped through...

06.11.2025 22:45 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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CelesTrak has ephemeris-based SupGP data for all 29 satellites from the Starlink G6-81 launch (2025-253) atop a Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral on 2025-11-06 at 01:31:10 UTC: spaceflightnow.com/2025/11/05/l.... Data for the launch can be found at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....

06.11.2025 22:30 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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18 SDS has cataloged 3 objects from the launch (2025-252) of QPS-SAR-14 (YACHIHOKO-I) atop an Electron rocket from Māhia Peninsula, NZ on Nov 5 at 1951 UTC: spacenews.com/rocket-lab-l.... SATCAT data can be found at: celestrak.org/satcat/table... (GP data at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen...).

06.11.2025 22:29 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

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