Pierre Masselot

Have a look at our study led by the great @gkonstantinoudis.bsky.social and @clairbarnes.bsky.social.

🎙️ Check out our interview with @pmasselot.bsky.social and @maxeyre.bsky.social who discuss their recent seminar series focusing on causal inference in environmental epidemiology

Read more 🔽
www.lshtm.ac.uk/research/cen...

Some of my work that can be found here:
- A dataset of full temperature exposure-response functions for European cities (Data)
- Results from health impact projections in Europe (Apps)
- Reproducible code for environmental risk extrapolation (R Code)

EHM-Lab

With the EHM-Lab, we have put together a website to explore our scientific outputs: ehm-lab.github.io. This includes R packages, reproducible analysis code, datasets and interactive apps. @gasparrini.bsky.social

LSHTM DASH Centre is on Bluesky. We have done a cool seminar series on Causal Inference for Environmental Epidemiology for the Centre so check it out.

The paper is structure as a succession of self-contained - but nonetheless interrelated - packages presenting the methodological innovations. A fully reproducible code with data is available on GitHub: github.com/PierreMassel...

We have a new paper presenting methodological extensions for our standard multi-location studies in environmental epidemiology: doi.org/10.1177/0962....
This framework has been at the heart of our work on temperature-related mortality health impact assessment and projections in Europe.

Sorry but I don't think I know enough to answer. Would be interesting to have a look though.

In other words, we estimate that without temperature changes, we would avoid the same amount of heat-related deaths that was estimated *in total* in 2022.

Sounds big enough to me.

To which we deduct the ~3M reduction in cold-related deaths.
Now, our figures report only the part attributed to climate change, i.e. due to changes in temp distribution. This comes in addition to the "historical burden" which means that in the 60,000 figure of 2022 only a small part would count.

Well, some estimates of heat-related deaths for the record hot summer of 2022 were about 60,000 (doi.org/10.1038/s415...). Multipliying by 85 (our proj period), this amount to a bit more than 5M heat-related deaths. so almost the cumulative excess we estimate for heat alone in our paper.

You can explore our results with our interactive app (ehm-lab.shinyapps.io/vistemphip/) and access reproducible code and data (zenodo.org/records/1400...).

We found regional disparities with actually a slight net decrease in Northernmost countries but a massive net increase in Mediterranean countries. Central Europe and the Balkans are other hotspots of increased temperature-related deaths.

We show that a dramatic increase in heat-related deaths across European cities should completely overtake decreases in cold-related deaths as the climate warms and that, no, climate change will not save lives. Further, the levels of adaptation necessary to reverse the trend are extremely high.

Estimating future heat-related and cold-related mortality under climate change, demographic and adaptation scenarios in 854 European cities - Nature Medicine Modeled analyses of 854 European cities show that net temperature-related mortality will increase because of an increase in heat-related mortality exceeding future reductions in cold-related mortality...

Our new projection study shows a net increase in temperature-related deaths in European cities under all future climate change scenarios. We estimate a death toll potentially exceeding 2 millions by the end of the century without climate change mitigation.
Read here: www.nature.com/articles/s41...

1000th reason on why it's important to reduce GHG emissions: it could literally avoid 100s of thousands of temperature-related deaths.

Read our white paper: t.co/U0Nq36DLuF

Full research paper hopefully out before the end of the year.

Climate change could claim more than 2 million lives until 2100 because of temperature alone. We have made projections of temperature-related mortality in future climate: www.exhaustion.eu/resources/mo...