Elias Ferrer

Caminho incerto: Dividido entre ala dura e diplomática, Trump está indeciso sobre Venezuela Analistas políticos venezuelanos avaliam que presidente americano ainda não decidiu o que fazer sobre o regime Maduro em Caracas

With my comments for @oglobo.globo.com on how the Trump administration sees Venezuela, what a military operation could entail, and how Maduro is reacting.

oglobo.globo.com/mundo/notici...

Shared my thoughts with the Inter-American Dialogue on what the Cartel de los Soles is, and what the Trump administration is trying to achieve in Venezuela.

Just the first paragraph in the screenshot. You can read the full piece by subscribing to them:
thedialogue.org/latin-americ...

Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com Crude oil prices & gas price charts. Oil price charts for Brent Crude, WTI & oil futures. Energy news covering oil, petroleum, natural gas and investment advice

Should we expect war or negotiations between the United States and Venezuela? What will it mean for energy markets?

Read my latest for OilPrice here 👇
oilprice.com/Energy/Energ...

Behind Venezuela's phantom cartel, Trump's endgame remains unclear

My latest comment for BNE Intellinews here 👇
www.intellinews.com/comment-behi...

Pressão máxima: Trump envia forças ao Caribe e manda afundar barcos para acuar Maduro, dizem analistas Casa Branca enviou a Porto Rico caças multifuncionais de quinta geração que têm, entre outras capacidades, interferir e neutralizar sistemas de comunicação, carregar mísseis com alcance de até 200km e...

With my comments for O Globo:

"Sabemos que algumas pessoas em Washington imaginam uma negociação para uma eleição antecipada, ou um acordo para que Maduro possa deixar o poder. Facções da oposição moderada buscam essa saída. MCM quer que tirem Maduro já do poder."

oglobo.globo.com/mundo/notici...

The myth of a Venezuelan narco-state: A geopolitical risk for the United States - Guacamaya Creating and spreading a false narrative is not harmless. In this third article, we are laying out the damning consequences of branding Venezuela a narco-state.

We were able to show that the Cartel de los Soles is a political narrative used to justify military intervention.

In this piece, we analyse the consequences as the U.S. is undermining its own strategic, energy, and migration interests in Latin America.

guacamayave.com/en/the-myth-...

The Cartel de los Soles: How a narrative is used to push for regime change - Guacamaya Last week, the U.S. military struck an alleged drug trafficking boat in international waters, with the backdrop of a Navy deployment in the Caribbean.

Another solid investigative article by @ferrerbreda.bsky.social regarding claims of a "Cartel de los Soles" directed by Nicolás Maduro
guacamayave.com/en/the-carte...

The Cartel de los Soles: How a narrative is used to push for regime change - Guacamaya Last week, the U.S. military struck an alleged drug trafficking boat in international waters, with the backdrop of a Navy deployment in the Caribbean.

We aren't done. We just published a second investigation, where we show how the "Cartel de los Soles" political narrative was created with one goal: to push for regime change.

Read the full investigation here 👇
guacamayave.com/en/the-carte...

The Cartel de los Soles: A political narrative or reality? - Guacamaya On July 25, 2025 the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned what it called “the Cartel de los Soles” as a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist Organization.”

We just did an investigative report on what the Cartel of the Suns really is: a political narrative.

In Venezuela, there is drug trafficking and widespread corruption, but there is no evidence to back up the State and Justice Department's allegations.

guacamayave.com/en/the-carte...

The Cartel de los Soles: A political narrative or reality? - Guacamaya On July 25, 2025 the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned what it called “the Cartel de los Soles” as a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist Organization.”

This is the best deep-dive regarding the mythical "Cartel de los Soles" published by a Venezuelan investigative journlaist.

guacamayave.com/en/the-carte...

Effects of International Sanctions on Age-Specific Mortality: A Cross-National Panel Data Analysis New study finds unilateral economic sanctions significantly increase mortality, causing over 560,000 deaths annually—comparable to war.

Sometimes we forget that sanctions are, to many effects, an act of war. Blockades aren't new, just the way we do them.

Now, Francisco Rodríguez, Silvio Rendón, and Mark Weisbrot are arguing they cause as many deaths as conventional war.

cepr.net/publications...

How the U.S. is Handing Over Venezuela’s Oil Sector to China | OilPrice.com While not officially taking over Chevron’s assets, Chinese companies like China Concord Petroleum and Anhui Guangda Mining are signing secretive production-sharing deals to operate oil fields and purs...

The point is that Chinese companies don't have to invest billions in Venezuela. They already control its export markets for oil and most minerals, thanks to U.S. sanctions. You don't buy something that you already own.

My latest:
oilprice.com/Energy/Energ...

How the U.S. is Handing Over Venezuela’s Oil Sector to China | OilPrice.com While not officially taking over Chevron’s assets, Chinese companies like China Concord Petroleum and Anhui Guangda Mining are signing secretive production-sharing deals to operate oil fields and purs...

Venezuela is not taking Chevron’s oil fields and giving them to Chinese firms. But here is how the country is becoming fully dependent on Beijing.

First of all, China has become a monopsony for oil and for mining (meaning it’s virtually the only buyer).

oilprice.com/Energy/Energ...

Chinese Communist Party delegation visits Venezuela - Guacamaya A Chinese Communist Party (CCP) delegation arrived in Caracas, Venezuela on Tuesday, where it is meeting with President Nicolás Maduro.

So far we have:
- Delcy Rodríguez meeting Chinese VP and CNPC execs.
- Maduro and Xi meeting in Moscow.
- Now strengthening party-level relations, CCP-PSUV.
- China is by far Venezuela's top destination for oil and metals exports.

guacamayave.com/en/chinese-c...

YouTube video by VPItv Se acabó la Válvula de Escape - Elías Ferrer

En VPITV esta mañana, sobre el efecto económico de la salida de Chevron, y lo que dijo ayer Delcy Rodríguez de que todos los campos petroleros siguen en plena producción.

youtu.be/aAMQoN0gsgk?...

Así enfrentaría Venezuela ese de operaciones de petroleras Maduro ha estado preparándose para el cese de operaciones de las petroleras: una de las piezas que ha movido es usar la figura de los CPP

Con mis comentarios sobre los “contratos de participación productiva” y como nuevas empresas chinas estarían entrando en la producción de crudo venezolano.

bitacoraeconomica.com/asi-enfrenta...

Revocatoria de las licencias ya se siente en Venezuela: empeora la economía y crece presencia de China, Rusia e Irán - HispanoPost Ya está en marcha en Venezuela lo que expertos han llamado la segunda parte de la película “Máxima presión”, en referencia a la política de sanciones -que incluye la revocatoria de las licencias petro...

El jueves estuve en un seminario web de FIU Jack D Gordon Institute for Public Policy, con Francisco Monaldi, David Goldwyn y Brian Fonseca.

Este artículo resume lo que dijimos en español:

hispanopost.com/revocatoria-...

Aquí la grabación del evento, en inglés:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=gK3D...

Sanções de Trump na Venezuela, incerteza e recessão à vista A Venezuela ainda não se recuperou de seu colapso econômico e a possibilidade de uma nova recessão está nas mãos do presidente dos Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, se ele revogar ou prorrogar as permissõ...

Just realized that Brazilian media picked up my best quote (from the FIU webinar) and just threw it in there with no context:

www.opovo.com.br/noticias/mun...

Rubio and Grenell, Trump’s dueling diplomats, clash over Venezuela A policy clash between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Richard Grenell, Trump’s envoy for special missions, nearly scuttled the House tax and spending bill.

"Three House Republicans from southern Florida nearly derailed passage of President Donald Trump’s massive tax and spending package this week in protest of an apparent presidential reversal of sanctions on Venezuela," from @washingtonpost.com.

www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

YouTube video by FIU Gordon Institute Halting Oil Operations, Implications for Venezuela and the United States

Yesterday, I spoke at the FIU Gordon Institute webinar with Francisco Monaldi, David Goldwyn and Brian Fonseca.

"Halting Oil Operations, Implications for Venezuela and the United States"

You can watch it here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=gK3D...

Debo resaltar que en Venezuela nunca he tenido problemas con “malandros” corrientes. Pero si me han complicado mucho la vida funcionarios.

Y esto no es un problema de uno o dos corruptos. Es algo del presupuesto del sector público.

Un amigo acaba de experimentar el paseo millonario, así como tuve la oportunidad yo mismo en enero.

Algún día tendremos que solucionar esto de que el modus operandi de una unidad de la Policía Nacional Bolivariana es sembrar a jóvenes y extorsionarlos por miles de dólares.

Eric Ondarroa, candidato por Miranda: “A los chamos les entregan un título, pero salen sin saber leer ni multiplicar” - Guacamaya Entrevistamos a Eric Ondarroa, candidato a la gobernación de Miranda por Alianza del Lápiz, durante su recorrido por Petare.

🦜 Entrevistamos a Eric Ondarroa, candidato por la gobernación de Miranda del Lápiz, durante un recorrido por Petare. Su mensaje principal es la educación, mientras los vecinos denuncian que sus hijos apenas pueden ver clases.

Lee la entrevista aquí 👇
guacamayave.com/eric-ondarro...

U.S. Oil Companies Face May 27 Exit from Venezuela as China Deepens Influence As the May 27 deadline approaches for U.S. and European energy companies to cease operations in Venezuela, Chinese firms are rushing to fill the vacuum in the o

My comments at The Floridian: "Every year that passes by there are more sanctioned countries, and the world is more fragmented economically. So the sector outside the reach of the U.S. and the EU just keeps growing"

floridianpress.com/2025/05/west...

This means about 20%, given that millions of Venezuelans have left without that being reflected in the electoral register.

Opposition incumbents won't have it easy in Zulia or Barinas, while an opposition candidate might score a victory in Miranda, despite fragmentation.

Reuters: Chevron’s Boscan crude from Venezuela now bound for China - Guacamaya Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, PDVSA has started to export heavy crude that has been shipped by Chevron since 2022.

#Boscan 🦜 The Boscan crude blend, produced by a joint venture of Chevron and PDVSA, is now being exported to China (via Malaysia), according to Reuters.

This would be to the cancellation of Chevron's OFAC license to work in Venezuela.
guacamayave.com/en/reuters-c...

U.S. Supreme Court Rejects Trump’s Expedited Deportations of Venezuelans - Guacamaya This Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court made a significant decision by ruling that the Donald Trump administration violated constitutional rights.

#SCOTUS 🦜 The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration violated constitutional rights by attempting to quickly deport Venezuelan migrants using the 1798 Alien Enemies Act.

guacamayave.com/en/u-s-supre...

Mientras Maduro busca el apoyo de China y Rusia, Trump insiste en sacar a las empresas occidentales de Venezuela: “Un error estratégico” - HispanoPost Como un “error estratégico” califican los expertos la política de sanciones -entre ellas la revocatoria de las licencias petroleras- contra Venezuela que ha retomado Donald Trump durante su segundo ma...

Con mis comentarios para Hispanopost. -- Mientras Maduro busca el apoyo de China y Rusia, Trump insiste en sacar a las empresas occidentales de Venezuela: “Un error estratégico”

hispanopost.com/mientras-mad...

So what was this about five opposition activists running away from the Argentine embassy in Caracas?

Pretty complete article by my colleague Sleither Fernández on what we know so far.

Venezuela Activates GLONASS Station with Russian Support to Strengthen National Navigation and Positioning - Guacamaya The project, operational as of this week, promises improvements in transportation, agriculture, and infrastructure while strengthening the technological alliance with Moscow.

I really recommend the articles that Luis Alejandro Ruiz is writing about Venezuela - Russia relations at @theguacamayave.bsky.social, and what they are actually doing beyond all the noise.

guacamayave.com/en/venezuela...