Justin C. Wiltshire

Merry Christmas, Canada.

Yes to a lot of this, but let's remember that there's a lot of value to be had in also prioritizing those who have moved to Canada and learned a skilled trade. Many such workers have higher earning potential than is typical for an average post-secondary graduate, and fill more acute skills shortages

"Policy discussions often treat EITC expansions and minimum wage raises as alternatives, of which we should choose just one. This is a misconception. In economic terms, the two policies are complementary and may be more effective in combination than either is on its own."

The EITC and minimum wage work together to reduce poverty and raise incomes Although simple theories of the labor market imply that employers may capture some of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) by reducing wages, the empirical evidence is quite limited and dated. What evi...

@jrothst.bsky.social and @benzipperer.org convincingly argue that the EITC and a higher minimum wage work best in tandem

www.epi.org/publication/...

And my own research (WP soon!) emphasizes the value of having both especially where a low wage monopsonist employer is operating

Rothstein's preferred simulation showed a $1 increase in the EITC was "accompanied by a decline of $0.34 in the net-of-tax incomes of women with-
out children, which are pushed downward both by falling wages and by reduced labor supply"

It depends on various things. But Leigh found "a 10 percent increase in the generosity of the EITC is associated with a 5 percent fall in the wages of high school dropouts and a 2 percent fall in the wages of those with only a high school diploma"

Honestly, many more on that list are excellent. And see Manning 2021 and Dube and Lindner 2024 for nice broader takes

Minimum Wage Own Wage Elasticity Repository Representative estimates from minimum wage studies

There are many dozens of good ones. Beyond our own study take a look at the minimum wage own wage elasticity tracker I mentioned (economic.github.io/owe/). E.g. Dube, Lester and Reich 2010;Allegretto, Dube, Reich and Zipperer 2017; Cengiz, Dube, Lindner and Zipperer 2019; Wursten and Reich 2023

Finally, it's always worth pointing people to Dube and Zipperer's excellent minimum wage own-wage elasticity repository (and the accompanying working paper)

www.nber.org/system/files...

@arindube.bsky.social @benzipperer.org

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andrewleigh.org/pdf/EITC%20i...

Is the EITC as Good as an NIT? Conditional Cash Transfers and Tax Incidence (February 2010) - The EITC is intended to encourage work. But EITC-induced increases in labor supply may drive wages down. I simulate the economic incidence of the EITC. In each scenario that I consid...

Second, Rothstein (2010) and Leigh (2010) are both excellent papers on how firms capture some of the incidence of the EITC

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www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

First, a pre-print of our forthcoming paper is on JoLE's website: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

I was disappointed with several elements of The @economist.com recent articles on minimum wages. To their credit, they've published my response.

Here are some links to the research I reference and to some other research which had to be cut from the published letter

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Dreamers and Beyond: Examining the Broader Educational Effects of DACA Briana Ballis This work examines the direct effects and spillover effects of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) on human capital investments during high school. DACA significantly increased the returns to schooling for undocumented youth, while leaving the returns for their U.S.-born peers unchanged. I estimate the impacts of DACA using detailed administrative data from Los Angeles Unified School District. I find that DACA induced undocumented youth to invest more in their education, which also had positive spillover effects on ineligible students (those born in the United States) who attended high school with high concentrations of DACA-eligible youth.

#DACA increased high school graduation by 12% for #UndocumentedYouth—and even boosted U.S.-born students’ rates by 4% in LA schools. Briana Ballis found that policy ripple effects are real. #FeaturedArticle
doi.org/10.3368/jhr....

Heading south for this conference and just got grilled on minimum wage effects by the US border guard in Calgary who wanted to know the implications of McDonald's workers in the Seattle area starting at over $20/hour.

This is going to be a good trip!

HHS cancels nearly $600 million Moderna contract on vaccines for flu pandemics HHS has notified Moderna that it is canceling a nearly $600 million contract for vaccines for flu strains that could trigger future pandemics.

BREAKING: In a serious blow to US pandemic flu preparedness, HHS has cancelled a contract with Moderna to test and license prototype vaccines for #H5N1 #birdflu and other potential pandemic viruses.
In a pandemic, mRNA is the fastest way to vaccine doses. www.statnews.com/2025/05/28/m...

I heard that as part of a settlement offer, Harvard will give Kristi Noem classes on habeas corpus.

I can't wait for this fantastic conference! What a privilege to join these other authors!

Going to be a great conference!

😆 *monopsony

Great comments from @econmarshall.bsky.social and the @utah.edu econ crowd during my presentation on Monotony Power and the US Social Safety Net. Also, what incredible surroundings for a campus!

RANDOM TARIFF ENCOUNTER TABLE (D8)
1 - 25%
2 - 34%
3 - 10% (but you must buy our chickens)
4 - 49% lovely people but they've been ripping us off
5 - 20% and 2d4 ogres
6 - 31%, roll again on treasure table C
7 - 25% (28% for elves)
8 - Roll again combine both results

A picture of the University of Cape Town, where SALDRU is based.

Hello, Bluesky #EconSky! We're the Southern Africa Labour & Development Research Unit (SALDRU) at UCT, dedicated to challenging inequalities through policy-relevant academic research. We are one of the leading Labour & Development #Economics units on the continent. Explore our work: saldru.uct.ac.za

🤣 ...and those who can't even use proper grammar leach off of society and then blame "liberals" for their anger.

As you don't know what academic economists actually do: I conduct research to identify causal impacts of economic policies. It's called evidence. Come talk to me when you care about it.

🤣 this from the person who's photoshopping a giant nose onto Carney and calling him a liar. The sheer hypocrisy and gall it takes to do that and then call me a hypocrite is astounding.

Enjoy losing the next election and being subjected to quality policies instead of vacuous sloganeering

... good one...

Sure am glad the idiots on X have started migrating to Bluesky...

I'll just leave this here @mark-carney.bsky.social #cdnpoli

Firstsies following