Matt Polacko

New study finds Democrats represent public opinion better than Republicans: "the quality of statehouse democracy, here meaning the dynamic relationship between opinion and policy, is substantially weakened by Republican Party control of state government."

www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10....

Priming inflation in survey experiment right before Nov 2024 election consideration decreased approval of the Democratic party equivalent of 5 pp among Dems and Independents, stronger effects in areas with greater local inflation

Britain's youth clubs have been quietly decimated. What's most revealing is that few seem to care | John Harris These vital spaces have been the first targets of cuts in a nation that favours age over youth – despite being the remedy for blights such as social division, polarisation and loneliness, says Guardia...

How austerity hit young people.

In the decade after 2010 councils’ funding for youth services in England and Wales suffered a real-terms cut of 70%.

By 2023, 1,200 publicly run youth centres closed.

Young people abandoned to fund tax cuts for corporations the rich.

Thankfully there is one very big difference between the US and the UK that should save us from this insanity: Brits are as unreligious as you can get

Here’s what you need to know about Starmer’s illiberal protest curbs: they would have killed the Labour party at birth | George Monbiot The rights we enjoy in the UK, and the movement the PM purports to lead, were built on protest. Those rights are in dire peril, says Guardian columnist George Monbiot

How the Labour government would have banned the Labour movement.
My latest column.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

🇵🇱 My @thetimes column: Poland’s economic miracle

12 out of 17 Polish regions are now richer than West Wales. It has faster internet, cheaper electricity and more high speed rail than Britain

When it comes to regional development it’s the UK, not Poland, that needs to catch up

1/3

Why Scots are losing their British identity With only a quarter of respondents to the Scottish Social Attitudes survey identifying with Britishness, Scotland faces a generational political split

Analysis in @thetimes.com by @leaskyd.bsky.social & Anna Dowell of the sharp decline in British identity uncovered by the Scottish Social Attitudes survey.

With comment from Sir John Curtice on the polarising of Scottish politics and from myself on the decoupling of Scottish and British identities:

Roberts is presiding over, and driving, a stunning collapse in faith in the U.S. Supreme Court, not just among the public, but among federal judges.

What a failure. The Titanic captain of chief justices.

Support/opposition to economic growth, technological change, innovation etc. is related to your class position.

Those who have most benefitted from change in the past are the most supportive.

Those who have most lost out from recent change (skilled manual workers) are the least supportive

👇👇👇

Steffen Wamsler and I have a new paper in @ejprjournal.bsky.social !

We show that citizens who perceive their in-group to be disadvantaged express lower support for democracy and higher openness towards authoritarian alternatives!

tinyurl.com/y78hj253 @espol-lab.bsky.social @lifbi.bsky.social

Opinion | Trump Is Not Afraid of Civil War. Neither Is Stephen Miller.

An excellent (although deeply depressing) piece by Thomas Edsall, with some great interviews with top US political scientists.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/07/o...

Lifetime of earnings not enough for UK workers to join wealthiest 10%, report says Research finds it would take average worker saving all their earnings for 52 years to match wealth of richest 10th of society

It would take the average UK earner 52 years’ worth of earnings to join the richest 10%.

Up from 38 years in 2006-08. Rich buy political influence.

Govts help the rich. Bottom 20% pay higher proportion of income in than the richest 20%.

Inequalities obstruct economic growth, fuel social unrest.

In a new paper, we provide fresh evidence on the macroeconomic effects of public investment in 27 EU member states. We find that public investment has favorable effects on output and unemployment; doesn't crowd out private investment; and doesn't jeopardise debt sustainability.

Ontario accountants call for tax simplicity, but are cuts the best way to spur growth? Seeking to address economic weakness, CPA Ontario suggests cuts to corporate, top income tax rates, but one senior economist notes possible consequences

Tax cuts are NOT the best way to spurt growth, says @davidmaccdn.bsky.social: “high income earners don't spend any additional income that they get through tax cuts. [So] providing more income to higher income individuals doesn't yield higher economic growth" www.wealthprofessional.ca/news/industr...

Canadians Firmly Reject Idea of American Statehood Support for American statehood remains low across all age groups, even in more conservative provinces like Alberta

Those who agree - "If the US offered all Canadians full US citizenship and a full conversion of the Canadian dollar/personal assets into US dollars, I would vote to become part of the US"

🟢 All: 16%

🟢 Boomers: 6%
🟢 Zoomers: 24%

Read it here: open.substack.com/pub/canadian...

Centrist Democrats Have Already Forgotten About Kamala Harris Pivoting to the right didn't work in 2024. It won't work now.

Centrist Democrats have again decided the path to victory is to tack to the right. But their compulsive moderation “reinforces the perception that the Democratic Party stands for nothing.” @dylangyauchl.bsky.social with @revolvingdoor.bsky.social: trib.al/ocSBbuw

Really excited that after several years of working on it, revising, and getting lots of rejections, our paper (w/ Rune Stubager & Mads Thau) on citizens’ responses to group appeals is *finally* out @ejprjournal.bsky.social

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

A 🧵 on our findings...

Depressed people are more likely to support Donald Trump. New research shows a connection between mental health and political attitudes.

Depressed people are more likely to support Donald Trump.

New research shows a connection between mental health and political attitudes.

See the data here: goodauthority.org/news/depress...

Can Democrats Win Back Rust Belt Voters? New research from the Center for Working-Class Politics shows that economic populists are popular, but the Democratic label is a drag.

Economic populism can win back Rust Belt voters, but Democrats face an uphill battle to shake negative associations with the party, according to new polling and analysis from the Center for Working-Class Politics. inequality.org/article/can-...

The mainstream of British politics is now advocating policies that are beyond the wildest dreams of the BNP of just two decades ago

I fear that the decline of reading will have disastrous societal consequences.

How polarised is Britain? Behind media perceptions of a sharpening political divide is a more complicated picture

"Polarisation may be an unhelpful term .... It implies that both sides are becoming equally extreme. Arguably the real dynamic is that elements of the right have hardened, embracing positions that would have been unacceptable a decade ago" on.ft.com/46TGRHs by @henrymance.ft.com 1/

The problem is the Tories stopped being a centre right party in 2019, and there's little sign of any dynamics that can move it back in that direction.

The relationship between income and vote has reversed in the USA.

These are the people getting huge tax cuts — paid for by cuts to health care for millions of Americans.

Every lie Trump and Republicans are telling right now is meant to distract you from this.

Both the Conservatives and Labour have a reputation problem on immigration and are making things worse things with their strategies. Labour are fishing in the wrong pool of voters and never likely to be seen as tough enough. The Conservatives lack credibility thanks to their recent record in office.

Taxing the Rich and the Survival of Emmanuel Macron Today on TAP: A crucial political meeting in Paris today will force a choice between a popular wealth tax and a deepening political crisis.

A proposed 2% wealth tax in France would affect 1800 people, and bring in $20 billion a year. It’s overwhelmingly popular, but it seems that Macron would rather let the far-right take power than tax the super-rich. From Robert Kuttner: trib.al/Snv1jbR

Thanks Raul!

🏆 @mattpolacko.bsky.social has won the 2025 @epsrjournal.bsky.social Early Careers Prize for his outstanding contribution, 'Who benefits from the social democratic march to the middle?' 👏 Congratulations!

Read more 📑👉 buff.ly/gcFu5nf

#ECPRPrizes @luanarusso.bsky.social @andduer.bsky.social