Peak Trading Research

🌽 #Ags this week: Macro mood bullish via Crude Oil. U.S.–Iran tensions & tariff uncertainty are still in play. Trump State of the Union Tuesday. Brazil harvest delays, Argentina late dryness risk. Seasonals: Sugar & Coffee soft, Cocoa rebound window. Funds bought 4 of last 5 weeks. 📈

Funds keep BUYING Beans & Wheat! 📈🌾🌱 Friday's COT positioning data showed more Managed Money inflows into Grains and Oilseeds ... and more outflows from Softs. 🍬 📉

Money Flow Event! 🚨 Hedge funds have BOUGHT #agriculture futures in four of the past five weeks. Funds are now the longest they've been since last November. 🌾 🌱 📈

🌾 #Ags this week: U.S. markets closed tomorrow, then: NOPA, Fed minutes, USDA Outlook Forum, GDP & PCE. Macro tone turned cautious Friday on AI disruption fears 🤖, but weaker USD & firm CNY are supportive for ags 🌽 S.A. weather mostly benign, though RGDS/Argentina dryness risk lingers 🌧️

More Fund Love ❤️ 🌱. Non-Commercial hedge fund traders bought a LOT of Soybeans 🌱 during last week's Tuesday - Tuesday COT report window and continued to buy since last Tuesday's COT data cutoff. 📈 The drivers: Better U.S.-China relations, RVO biofuel demand optimism, bullish seasonals.

Valentine’s Day heartbreak for Corn? 💔
Short the first close on/after Feb 14.
Hold for 8 trading sessions.
Profitable 11 of the past 12 years.
Average price drop: 11¢.
Average profit : $552 per contract.
Late-February weakness is real. 📉

Beans are BACK! 🌱💪🏼

Last week’s COT report showed the second-LARGEST weekly hedge fund net buying on record: +94,316 contracts. 📈 The drivers: Improving U.S.–China relations, biofuel policy optimism, bullish seasonals, and a supportive macro backdrop (CNY up, Crude up).

🌾 #Ags this week: Busy week! WASDE report Tuesday, NFP Jobs Wednesday, and CPI data Friday. 📊 The macro mood improved on Friday, with SPX +2.0%. 📈 Argentina should get some needed rains. ☔ U.S. export demand softened last week. Seasonals are bullish, especially for OilseedS and Softs.

Back and Forth: Non-Commercial speculators sold Sugar 📉 during last week's Tuesday-to-Tuesday COT report window but have bought a lot of Soybeans 🌱 since last Tuesday's COT data cutoff. 📈

#Ags this week: Silver dropped -31% on Friday, a bearish signal for real assets and #commodity market appetite. We'll see #NFP jobs data on Friday. Tyson reports earnings on Monday, ADM on Tuesday, and Bunge on Wednesday.

BIG month for energy markets! ⛽
Nat Gas +49.5%, Heating Oil +23.6%, Gasoline +13.0%.
Cold temps, Iran escalations, bullish seasonals, and fund short covering. 📈
The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose +8.0%. 👏🏻

Buy the dip? 📈 Copper dropped -4.5% on Friday, but history says dips into February have been buying opportunities.

Over the past 12 years, Copper has risen 12 out of 12 times (100%) during the 12 trading sessions starting Monday’s close.

February seasonals are bullish for Copper. 🏆

Fund Firepower! 💥 Non-Commercial traders bought +132k contracts (+4.4B) of #agriculture futures last week, the largest inflows since November. 📈 The drivers: the bullish macro environment, dry Argentina forecasts, strong U.S. exports, cold weather, and bullish seasonals. 🌾

Agriculture markets priced in Silver are crashing out. 📉 Soybeans, Sugar, and Wheat are now trading below their 2020 COVID washout lows when priced in Silver. Relative value extremes tend to mean-revert. Bullish ag, or bearish Silver?

Crude Oil seasonals have WORKED in 2026 - Brent is up +12.7%. Will prices keep sailing higher? History says yes. Today we enter the most seasonally bullish 30-day window of the year. 🛢️ 📈

Many #agriculture markets like Cocoa, Sugar, and Wheat are cheap & oversold. Funds are short, and prices remain depressed. If #hedgefunds continue to buy real assets and de-dollarize, these value-pick markets could see renewed buying interest. 📈

#Funds are BACK and BUYING: Non-Commercial hedge fund traders sold a small amount of #agriculture futures during the COT week but bought back exposure Wednesday - Friday due to strong U.S. #export demand stats and the strongly bullish #macro mood. 📈 Funds have buying firepower. 💪🏼

🌱 #Ags this week: Investors are scrambling to own real assets, which includes #commodities. Wednesday's #Fed policy decision & Powell press conference will set the next direction for risk assets and the U.S. dollar. 🏛️ Brazil gets light rain this week; Argentina is dry. U.S. export demand is STRONG.

#Ethanol futures have risen in 11 of the past 12 years (92% of the time) from mid-January through late April. 🌽 ⛽ 📈

This trade begins on the first market close on or after Jan 17. 📅

Is it time for one of the world’s cheapest #commodity markets to trend higher? 💥

📉 Funds sold hard on bearish #USDA stats (-95k contracts / -$2.8B). Late-week buying followed on strong U.S. demand, flash sales, dry Argie forecasts, and bullish January seasonals. Specs remain mostly short #ags, with buying firepower if bullish catalysts persist. 🌾 💪🏼

🌾 #Ags this week: The macro mood is mixed ahead of a quiet data week. MLK market holiday tomorrow. Fed policy decision Jan 28th. 🏛️ Brazil gets rain this week; Argentina could turn drier into late January.

SHORTEST in 16 Months! 🌾 Hedge funds have big bearish bets across Grains, Oilseeds, and Softs #agriculture markets today. This means lots of buying firepower if there are any South American #production threats or bullish #macro catalysts in the coming weeks. ☀️📈

#Ags this week: The #macro mood is bullish, with Crude Oil and stock markets higher to start 2026. 🛢️ Monday's #WASDE report is expected to cut Corn and Soy production. 🌽 S.A. weather looks favorable. ☔ Seasonals are bullish for Corn, Wheat, and Sugar, bearish for Milk. 🐄

🌽 #Corn prices have risen in 9 of the past 10 years from mid-Jan into month-end. Chilly U.S. farmer selling + a growing Brazil/Argentina weather premium. 📈 🌤️

Fund Firepower: Non-Commercial speculators were -$2.3B net short in dollars (-464k contracts) across the #agriculture complex as of last Tuesday's market close. 📊 Funds have buying power if there are some South American #weather threats or bullish #macro shifts in the coming weeks.

Real COT reports are BACK! 📊 Friday's report was the first 'normal' Tuesday-Friday report since September and showed small net outflows of only -18k contracts (-$600M). 📉 Flows were quiet through the end of last week, ahead of next week's USDA WASDE & Stocks report on Monday. 🌱💵

🌱 #Ags this week: The macro mood is mixed ahead of U.S. Nonfarm payrolls data this Friday. The annual BCOM and GSCI rebalancing starts this Thursday and points to meaningful buying across key ag markets. 🌾 South American weather is non-threatening. Funds have been selling over the past four weeks.

2025 was a broadly negative year for #agriculture markets. 🌾 📉

For #grain traders, it marked a third consecutive year of depressed prices across Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans.

On the bright side, livestock markets performed well last year and most softs have positive long-term returns. 🐂 📈

That's a wrap! 🎉 2025 was a strong year for #commodities. The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose +11.1%, its best year since 2022, led by large gains in metals markets. 📈 Silver was the star performer, up +141%. 🪩

📈 ⛽ Will January bring higher energy prices? History says YES. It's a seasonally positive month when Crude Oil, Gasoline, Nat Gas, Heating Oil, and Ethanol tend to rally. Happy New Year, bulls. 🐂 🎉