Chris Williamson

As a mancunian teenager, the stone roses were also a major part of the scene that year and was by far the most exciting sound we'd ever heard live, punching so much harder than the smiths

1972 often cited: exile on main st, harvest, Ziggy stardust, zep iv, tapestry all released plus all the other bands touring at their peaks - you can see why.

Well out of my depth here but "science" is not set in stone. I think Einstein had something to say about Newton, but I only got as far as A level physics...

UK inflation rose from 3.4% to 3.7% in June, and the official annual % change data may rise further in the next couple of months, but the forward-looking PMI data suggest the worst of the recent upturn in underlying price pressures has already started easing

US CPI inflation up from 2.4% to 2.7% in June with further rises to come in the months ahead according to the S&P Global PMI

Yes. No signs of global supply chain stress this year so far.

PMI surveys indicate elevated US price growth as tariffs drive inflation differential with rest of world

www.spglobal.com/marketintell...

Week ahead economics: Fed minutes, UK GDP and inflation data for mainland China are key releases in a week which is likely to be dominated by the looming US tariff deadline.

Read all about it in our Week Ahead preview: www.spglobal.com/marketintell...

There are some useful notes on using the PMI to track productivity more broadly here if interested: www.spglobal.com/marketintell...

PMIs suggest a pretty rapid increase in German manufacturing productivity, and indeed in the PMI itself.

(c) Deutsche Bank

Over the worst? UK construction PMI for May showed output and new orders falling at the slowest rates since January, while growth projections for the year ahead improved again. But it's not all good news, as job losses accelerated to highest in nearly 5 years. www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...

Early 'flash' PMI data show US prices spiking higher in May amid tariff impact. Hints at potentially sizeable CPI rise. Full press release at www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...

Nice clear desk for me then. I have none of those

Booming services fire up India business growth in May despite rising inflation, PMI shows India's private sector activity accelerated at its fastest pace in over a year in May, driven by robust expansion in services even as price pressures intensified, a survey showed on Wednesday.

Booming services fire up India business growth in May despite rising inflation, PMI shows reut.rs/45s6kZk

This week sees flash PMI data released on Thursday, which will supply markets with more detailed insights into economic trends in the face of changing global trade conditions among the major economies.

Read more in our free-to-read preview of the week ahead: www.spglobal.com/marketintell...

Q1 strength in 2024 and 2025 also a function of rebounds from unusually weak Q4s I think? If you look at NSA nominal Q4 growth usually quite strong.

Q1 2020, 2021 and 2022 all depressed by covid & related containment (both regulated and voluntary). Q1 2023 hit by strikes. 2024 and 2025 back to more normal Q1s. Those weak Q1s between 2020 and 2023 played havoc with X13

V. interesting thread Chris. There's been so much distorting the economic data in recent years it's difficult to disentangle the factors at play. Certainly Q1 GDP (current price, NSA) has been showing an upward trend in recent years.

But before getting too excited about surging productivity, note that no such signal is apparent if GDP is replaced by the PMI output index, which points to a more normal output:employment ratio

Quite the divergence between UK GDP growth and employment so far this year... points to big productivity gains if it persists. Are we replacing people with capital amid rising staff costs? It would explain the big jump in investment spending in Q1, if correct.

Here's the UK GDP quarterly (3m/3m % change) growth profile of private sector services in recent years, supposedly seasonally adjusted... strong growth early in the spring seems to fade as we move into the second half of the year. This sector account for about 60% of GDP. (2/2)

The UK enjoyed a strong first quarter again in 2025. Spot the pattern ... (1/2)

US annual consumer price inflation down to 2.3% in April, its lowest since February 2021, but companies have been reporting some renewed upward pressure on selling prices in recent months, often linked to tariffs, which looks set to feed through to higher inflation in the coming months.

Worrying signs of UK labour market weakness from business surveys such as the PMI are also becoming increasingly apparent in the official data. HMRC data showed payrolled employment down 33K in April after a 47K fall in March and a 27k drop in Feb. Employment is now down 150K since last October

"A decline in new export orders reported by UK manufacturers [in April] was not only the steepest recorded since May 2020, but was also greater than recorded by any other economy tracked by the S&P Global PMI surveys." More at www.spglobal.com/marketintell...

This chart is absolutely nuts

Tracking consumer sentiment versus how consumers are doing based on verified retail purchases The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

Extremely cool FEDS Note that links consumer sentiment data to actually spending at the respondent level and shows that the disconnect between sentiment and spending post-COVID was extremely unique and driven by inflation perception not real incomes.

Paging @darioperkins.bsky.social

It's easy to remember tariffs spelling as it ends in FFS

The Treasury basis trade rears its head again [FREE TO READ] Bills and bonds and Treasury basis trades, oh my!

The 10 year Treasury yield has shot up to 4.45% and the 30-year is close to 5%. Here’s my attempt from yesterday to explain why even the biggest and safest bond market now seems to be creaking. TLDR: the liquidation of massively leveraged hedge fund trades. on.ft.com/3R748hN