John Burke

Alex Padilla would of also been a good candidate to clear the field.

Even Harris is more electable than him. Newsom is one of the few people that I would chose Harris Over. Here is what I mean
Sarah McBride>Harris>Newsom.

Well there was also a libertarian in the LT GOV race.

But like I said before it is almost impossible to get Durbin to vote for ICE Money. And Rosen seems like A hard no. republicans could pull out a miracle again. But I Don't see Durbin voting yes under any circumstances. so there is absolutely no margin of error to get to the 60 votes needed.

it seems like it will be very hard to get the 60 votes needed to fund ICE. the republican Budget managed to get exactly 60 votes. and Masto was one of them. the republicans already managed to get Paul(that they did not get last time)

@chriscooperwcu.bsky.social @uncrewed.bsky.social @samshirazi.bsky.social @sageoftime.bsky.social @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social

also if state republicans(in NC) continue to not be able to pass a budget(it is 7 months Late already). that could well help Davis. like how Mary Fallin's unpopularity helped Kendra Horn in 2018.

here is A list of some
NY 11 Max Rose(up against a very strong incumbent)
OK 5 Kendra Horn(no prior elected experience and was not what I would call "a star")
Mikie Sherrill(didn't have a bad opponent on paper)
so being just an average candidate may well be enough to win in 2026 for a Dem.

that said i don't think Davis' chances of winning are being overrated. but I think the reason why he has a chance to win have more to do with the nation environment than his own strengths. NC 1 is a trump +11.6% district and in 2018 A plenty of dems overperformed Clinton by that margin(or more)

I think Don Davis is way overrated for the district. the because only reason he overperformed the Dem baseline is because he overperformed by so much in his home base of Greene county that is not in the new district. IMO Davis is going too preform very similar to Cooper in the district in 2026

why is it "unfortunate"?

Also the same account shared my thread!

Trump seems like he is still going to keep tariffs and basically disobey the court. So therefore there will be no benefits for the republicans

Also New Hampshire is totally controlled by republicans.

This lawmaker, Cunningham, didn't just vote in favor of the pro-ICE bill. She also explained her vote on the floor of the House to say that "all cultures are not equal."

She now faces a pastor, Sadler, who has been active in the Moral Monday's movement in North Carolina.

The Feds Targeted Charlotte. Now a Local Democrat Who Helped ICE Faces Voters. - Bolts North Carolina lawmaker Carla Cunningham voted to mandate compliance with ICE, and derided immigrants on the House floor. The Democrat faces an intense March primary.

NEW: When North Carolina's GOP wanted to pass a bill last year to require that local governments comply with ICE, they were one vote down.

A Democratic lawmaker gave that decisive vote—as she has on other GOP bills.

Now, she faces a primary challenge from a progressive activist... in 14 days.

I meant both of them!

And justice Kevin Dougherty's son

It was literally THE closest in the chamber that year.

John is basically saying “Ice will have so much money regardless of if the bill passes or not so we might of well give them 10 million+ extra.” Thank about how that sounds. That is like saying I will eat unhealthy because I will have high cholesterol even if I eat super healthy, Because of genetics

So you have to look at what non-Carla canididate has the best chance to win the primary and that is obviously Rodney Sadler. Sadler has the endorsement of gov Josh Stein. Also Bowman only got 15.4% of the vote in the primary last time against Carla.

Also Democrats need to make sure they vote for Sadler and NOT the other person running against Carla(Bowman) I don't want people going in and just choosing a non Carla candidate. because than some would chose Sadler and some would chose Bowman and that would risk splitting the anti Carla vote.

Here is one candidate who is running against a conservative Dem.

here is another person I just endorsed.

Yet fake Dems like Shelly Willingham are going against the voters will and are giving the republicans an effective supermajority in the state house.

I am also endorsing Patricia Smith (@patriciasmithnc23.bsky.social) For NC HD 23 for the very same reason. NC voters chose to NOT have a republican supermajority in 2024. they wanted Stein to have a say in what gets passed and what doesn't.

If those Dems lose the primary. the Dems will only need a net gain of 1 seat to break the republicans effective super majority but if all the three conservative dems win the primary the dems would need a net gain of at least 4.

one of those moderate to conservative dems is from a competitive district and is running unopposed in the primary(Dante Pittman) but the other three have primary opponents and represent very blue districts(those are Carla Cunningham, Shelly Willingham and Nasif Majeed).

in The NC primaries that are on March 3 the primaries do matter. there are democrats in very blue districts who vote to override Stein's vetos and give the republicans an effective super majority in the state house.

I am pretty confident the Dems will win the seat. the 2025 elections showed it is hard for republicans to win (even narrow) Harris seats.