Josh Martin

An interesting issue on the UK productivity puzzle, including an article by @joshmartinecon.bsky.social (@bankofengland.bsky.social and ESCoE/ @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social PhD student).

@productivity.bsky.social

Symposium on the UK Productivity Puzzle: Insights from Data, Regions and Sectors The latest issue of the #InternationalProductivityMonitor features a symposium of four insightful and timely contributions addressing the UK productivity puzzle—assuming, of course, that one still con...

Some good summer reading!

A new issue of the #InternationalProductivityMonitor (Spring 2025) with a Symposium of articles on the UK #productivitypuzzle. www.linkedin.com/pulse/sympos...

Also a great article on #AI impacts on productivity by OECD.

CSLS and @productivity.bsky.social

I worked in government statistics for some years, including a spell in ONS, and there are a few things to say here.

Final day of @escoeorg.bsky.social conference on economic measurement being kicked off by Sébastien Roux. He describes work by @insee.fr to develop augmented national accounts statistics, incorporating environmental factors by treating emissions as a production input. #EconStats2025

Finally @kevinfoxecon.bsky.social presents on a nonparametric estimation of mark-ups (not imposing a functional form, but drawing on past input-output observations to infer feasible production technologies). Decomposition of markup change into technology, input and output prices, and (in)efficiency.

Tommaso Bighelli (@bankofengland.bsky.social) looks at the effects on incumbents when competitors engage in M&A using German firm-level data. Outside firms expand their product range, especially in highly concentrated markets. #EconStats2025

Session on productivity at @escoeorg.bsky.social conference #EconStats2025 - @emarvasi.bsky.social explores the nexus between intangible capital, market power, & productivity. Accounting for intangibles important for estimating mark-ups - they are lower and flatter, esp for US intan-intensive inds.

Fantastic work by @sophie-piton.bsky.social and co-authors investigating measurement of trade in banking services. Measurement of implicit income is challenging, but finds effect of Brexit once looking at stocks of loans and deposits rather than FISIM. #EconStats2025

Now at ESCoE conference #EconStats2025, a panel discussion on trade and productivity with a range of speakers.

Trade a topic of renewed interest, and productivity always important! Traders are more productive than non-traders, but much of that is selection effects.

Richard explores productivity implications of declining dynamism and the productivity slowdown. Contrasts diffusion with dynamism (with aid of sharks!) Lower responsiveness of firms to productivity shocks, failing to scale up, could depress dynamism and growth. #EconStats2025

Diane notes that the decline in dynamism and productivity growth are global, so global explanations needed. Complexity of production methods and global production methods could inhibit dynamism, startups, scaleups. Some better measurement needed! #EconStats2025

Jakob sets the scene: competition has declined, though measurement is tricky, & probably less in the UK than US. Not clear that increase in market power is driver of reduced business dynamism. Market power has not increased in UK labour market overall, though regional variation. #EconStats2025

Day 2 of the @escoeorg.bsky.social conference on economic measurement, kicking off with a panel on competition, dynamism and growth with @jschneebacher.bsky.social, @dianecoyle1859.bsky.social, @richarddavies.bsky.social and @teraallas.bsky.social. #EconStats2025

Finally @joelkariel.bsky.social presents new work on multi-establishment firms (MEFs), exploring their scale, span and scope. These MEFs are rare but large and important, though decreasingly so since 2010. Business dynamism fallen amongst MEFs, driving aggregate fall. #EconStats2025

Carol Corrado describes the Global Intan-Invest project (LUISS and @wipo.int) expanding intangible investment estimates to other countries and generating quarterly estimates. Intangible investment grown more than tangibles since 2019 in major economies.

Next session at @escoeorg.bsky.social conference on productivity. Paper from @aaronputseys.bsky.social using a novel firm-to-firm transactions dataset to measure intangible investments, and exploring the J-curve-type mismeasurement of TFP at the firm level. Very interesting. #EconStats2025

Now at #EconStats2025 ESCoE conference, a panel session on the relevance to GDP in the modern economy. Featuring Richard Heys (ONS), @dianecoyle1859.bsky.social and @chrisgiles.ft.com.

United dislike for the famous Robert Kennedy quote, but divided views on the ongoing merits of GDP.

Finally @stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social presents preliminary work on measuring regional resilience to economic shocks. Finding measures for resistance, recovery, renewal and reorientation.

Next up, Michel Serafinelli (@KingsCollegeLondon.bsky.social) explores the impact on employment of local labour markets from the decline in coal jobs. While many affected areas saw declines, some saw growth. Proximity to universities supported the affected areas.

At @escoeorg.bsky.social conference #EconStats2025, I was pleased to kick off a session on labour markets.

In joint work with @benbgeiger.bsky.social I explored the role of proxy responses on the UK LFS for trends in inactivity and sickness. Proxy responses are prevalent, but trends broadly robust.

Carol Propper (@imperialcollegeldn.bsky.social) gives the first plenary on the effect of 2010s pension reforms on doctor labour supply in the UK. Exploits a staggered roll out, and finds that labour supply increased through fewer exits, and no response on intensive margin. #EconStats2025

Excited for this year's ESCoE annual conference on economic measurement! @escoeorg.bsky.social

Three days of great research and discussion kicking off now.

Rebecca Riley opens the conference, noting that recent challenges demonstrate the demand for statistics, and the opportunities ahead of us.

Today I'm at the Earnings Symposium organised by ONS, @escoeorg.bsky.social, ADR UK and @wagedynamics.bsky.social

First presentations by ONS staff on the various data sources on wages - AWE, ASHE and PAYE RTI.

Later sessions on applications with the data, including me on firm-level wage dynamics.

Announcing the new Chair of the National Statistician’s Advisory Panel on Consumer Price Statistics (Stakeholder) The UK Statistics Authority has today announced that Professor Jonathan Haskel has been appointed as the new chair of the National Statistician’s Advisory Panel on Consumer Price Statistics. Jonathan...

Jonathan Haskel announced as the new Chair of the Stakeholder Advisory Panel on Consumer Price Statistics for the UK Statistics Authority. Great appointment!

uksa.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/news/announc...

The call for papers for the workshop on "Firm Dynamics, Market Structures and Productivity in the Macroeconomy" closes on 14 April! This year's edition is co-organised by @qmul.ac.uk, @boeresearch.bsky.social, @bristoluni.bsky.social and @kent.ac.uk.
Details: sophiepiton.com/papers/2025_...

New insights on regional capital investment in the UK - 1997 to 2019 - The Productivity Institute Exploring new data from the Office for National Statistics about the capital investment done in different parts of the UK.

Sounds like a great project Henry. I'd be glad to discuss geographic breakdown of capital (investment and stocks) as I'm working a little in this area myself. You may find useful: www.productivity.ac.uk/research/new...

Recommend doing this on a post-GFC average - bonuses dropped a lot vs pre-GFC. See also: www.google.com/amp/s/bankun...

Josh Robson (ScaleUp Institute) talks about the policy landscape around scale-up firms (high growth firms) - a small number of firms who contribute disproportionately. Some fascinating analysis!

Bridget Kauma (@sussexuni.bsky.social) presents work on #productivity across firms in the UK and France. Contrasting micro and macro methods in analysis of density and productivity - weighting matters! Density boosts productivity, but other factors matter more in explaining high prod in London.

This evening I'm at the @productivity.bsky.social and @escoeorg.bsky.social and RES event on firm-level productivity in the UK, as part of #NationalProductivityWeek.

Will we "unlock productivity" as the title threatens?! (Think we'd need a little more than 2 hours...)