Bank of England Research

Staff Working Paper 1159 by Richard Baldwin (IMD), Rebecca Freeman (BoE) & Angelos Theodorakopoulos (Aston) develops a toolkit for analysing how global shocks affect the geographical and functional distribution of GSCs at the sub-national level. 👉 www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/...

Monetary policy and mortgage fixation lengths Staff working papers set out research in progress by our staff, with the aim of encouraging comments and debate.

Staff Working Paper 1158 by A Rajan (BoE), F Rodriguez-Tous (Bayes) & M Salgado-Moreno (BoE) studies how lenders adjust the mix of mortgage products in response to changes in monetary policy. 👉 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

In today’s Bank Underground post, Katherine Blood (BoE) outlines a new measure for tracking the ownership of UK commercial real estate (CRE) by drawing on granular transaction-level and fund-level data. Read more here:🔗 bankunderground.co.uk/2025/12/11/w...

Bond financing conditions, economic activity and the financial accelerator Staff working papers set out research in progress by our staff, with the aim of encouraging comments and debate.

Staff Working Paper 1157 by Eduardo Maqui (BoE), Márcia Silva-Pereira (Bank of Portugal/Nova SBE) and Nicholas Vause (BoE) explores how bond financing conditions affect economic activity in the UK. www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Monetary policy, state-dependent bank capital requirements and the role of non-bank financial intermediaries Staff working papers set out research in progress by our staff, with the aim of encouraging comments and debate.

Staff Working Paper 1156 by Manuel Gloria (BoE) and Chiara Punzo (BoE) explore how NBFIs influence monetary policy transmission with a model of state-dependent bank capital requirements. www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

In a recent Bank Underground post, C Herler & P Schnattinger (BoE) examine the effect of inflation uncertainty on how households make financial decisions, drawing from an experiment that disentangles inflation uncertainty from inflation expectations. 🔗 bankunderground.co.uk/2025/12/04/h...

Sticky production and monetary policy Staff working papers set out research in progress by our staff, with the aim of encouraging comments and debate.

The recent inflationary episode was shaped unexpected demand surges and supply constraints. Staff Working Paper 1155 by J Chan (BoE), S Diz (CB Paraguay) & D Kanngiesser explores the effect of these dynamics by adding realistic frictions into an NK model. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

The value of trading relationships in FX derivatives: evidence from Credit Suisse's collapse Staff working papers set out research in progress by our staff, with the aim of encouraging comments and debate.

Staff Working Paper 1154 by Gerardo Ferrara (BoE) and Helene Hall (Harvard) about how dealer–client relationships in the FX derivatives market shape trading outcomes—especially under stress. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Inventories matter for the transmission of monetary policy: uncovering the cost-of-carry channel Staff working papers set out research in progress by our staff, with the aim of encouraging comments and debate.

Staff Working Paper 1153 by DRodrigues (UQAM) & T Willems (BoE) outline a cost-of-carry channel of monetary policy transmission, where higher policy rates raise the opportunity cost of holding inventories, incentivizing firms to reduce stockpiles. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Spatial inequality, regional growth, and economic geography Staff working papers set out research in progress by our staff, with the aim of encouraging comments and debate.

Staff Working Paper 1152 by Jenny Chan (BoE), Sebastian Ellingsen (Bristol), and Helen Simpson (Bristol)
provides a synthesis of recent contributions that examine trends in regional income gaps and why these persist today. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

In today’s Bank Underground post, Tuli Saha (BoE) and Alexandra Varadi (BoE) explore how household debt shapes the transmission of interest rates to spending and mortgage defaults. 🔗 bankunderground.co.uk/2025/11/20/t...

👥 Organisers: Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi (BoE), Ida Hjortsoe (BoE), Neeltje Van Horen (BoE, Amsterdam), Michael Kumhof (BoE), Abigail Haddow (BoE), Kate Reinold (BoE), and Carlos Cañon Salazar (BoE) (4/4)

Confirmed speakers include:
🎙A high-level policy panel including Gita Gopinath (Harvard)
🎙A keynote address by Hélène Rey (LBS)
🎙A fireside chat with Governor Andrew Bailey (3/4)

🎯 Workshop aim: to bring together researchers and policymakers to explore issues such as the reshaping of global trade, international finance, and cross-border shock transmission —and their impact on the UK’s interactions with the global economy. (2/4)

Call for papers - Bank of England’s 2026 BEAR conference 'The Interconnected World' London, 7 and 8 May 2026

📢 #CallForPapers 📢

Submissions are now welcome for the Bank of England’s 2026 BEAR #conference on “The Interconnected World”

📆 7-8 May 2026 📍 London, Bank of England

📆 Submission deadline: 15 February 2026

👉 Submit here: www.bankofengland.co.uk/events/2026/... (1/4)

YouTube video by OECD Science, Technology and Innovation OECD Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) tables and Trade in Value-Added (TiVA) database: 2025 edition

▶️ Watch the event: www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3eK...
📖 Read more about some of the charts presented by Rebecca: www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bu... (3/3)

✅ Rebecca joined as a panellist discussing new indicators that measure globalisation and value chains
✅ These include global supply chain exposure metrics, building on a body of work by Richard Baldwin (IMD), Angelos Theodorakopoulos (Aston), and Rebecca Freeman (BoE) (2/3)

🧵 How do global supply chains shape our economy? Rebecca Freeman (BoE) shared insights on this topic at the OECD event “Launch of the new vintage of OECD’s Inter‑Country Input‑Output (ICIO) tables and Trade in Value Added (TiVA) database | Measuring the Global Economy”. (1/3)

In our latest Bank Underground post, Iulia Bucur (BoE) & Ed Hill (BoE) explore how LLMs can be applied to central bank reports—including the BoE’s Monetary Policy Reports & the BoJ’s Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices—to analyse sentiment over time.🔗 bankunderground.co.uk/2025/11/13/a...

Distributional consequences of borrower-based macroprudential tools Staff working papers set out research in progress by our staff, with the aim of encouraging comments and debate.

Staff Working Paper 1151 by J Peydro (LUISS, EIEF), F Rodriguez-Tous (Bayes), J Tripathy (BoE), & A Uluc (BoE) provides a synthesis of the evidence on the transmission of borrower-based macroprudential tools across jurisdictions. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

In our latest Bank Underground post, Arno Hantzsche (BoE) and Harriet Jeanes (BoE) outline a new model that decomposes movements in house prices across contributions from key economic drivers. Real household income key for explaining house price growth. 🔗 bankunderground.co.uk/2025/11/13/t...

Revealing economic facts: LLMs know more than they say Staff working papers set out research in progress by our staff, with the aim of encouraging comments and debate.

Staff Working Paper 1150 by M Buckmann, Q Anh Nguyen & E Hill (BoE) evaluate LLMs’ ability to reproduce economic and financial statistics & find that examining their internal representations is more effective than relying on their textual response. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Climate policy and banks’ portfolio allocation Staff working papers set out research in progress by our staff, with the aim of encouraging comments and debate.

Staff Working Paper 1149 by G Covi, M Froemel, D Reinhardt & N Wegner (BoE) examines how banks respond to transition risk linked to the shift towards a low-carbon economy. Finds stricter climate policies reduce banks’ exposure to transition risk. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Research careers Help shape the future of the economy, financial services industry and regulation in the UK

📢 Applications are open for our 12-week PhD Internship at the BoE!

Are you a PhD student interested in conducting innovative, policy-relevant research & finding out what it is like to work in a policy institution?

📍 London, Leeds
📅 Deadline: 19 Jan 26
🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/careers/rese...

Understanding Business Conditions, Expectations and Uncertainty Join us for an in-person conference.

📣 Registrations are now open for the “Understanding Business Conditions, Expectations & Uncertainty” conference organised by Phil Bunn (BoE) & Paul Mizen (King’s)

📆 17 Nov 📍 King's Business School

🎙 Confirmed speakers include Catherine Mann (BoE)

👉 Register: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/understand...

Wage information and applicant selection Staff working papers set out research in progress by our staff, with the aim of encouraging comments and debate.

Staff Working Paper 1148 by M Balgova (BoE), T Tekleselassie (Wellesley), L Hensel (Peking Uni) & M Witte (VU Amsterdam) study the causes and the consequences of firms omitting wage information from job adverts via a field experiment with real vacancies. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Credit constraints and the redistribution of housing wealth Staff working papers set out research in progress by our staff, with the aim of encouraging comments and debate.

Staff Working Paper 1147 by B Tracey (BoE) & N van Horen (BoE) shows FTB home purchases rose sharply after 2013 when the deposit requirement was reduced from 10% to 5% by HTB. Gains were concentrated among FTBs unlikely to have relied on family support. 🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Trade fragmentation, inflationary pressures and monetary policy Staff working papers set out research in progress by our staff, with the aim of encouraging comments and debate.

Staff Working Paper 1146 by Ludovica Ambrosino (LBS), Jenny Chan (BoE) & Silvana Tenreyro (LSE) examines how trade fragmentation affects inflationary pressures. Paper develops a model to capture both supply & demand-side effects of trade fragmentation.
🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

The MTP Series is a key step in the Bank's response to Dr. Ben Bernanke’s 2024 review of the Bank’s monetary policy processes.

The series aim to:
🔹 Support continuous learning and improvements
🔹 Encourage external engagement and debate
🔹 Improve transparency around the models we use (4/4)

Monetary policymaking under uncertainty Part of the Macro Technical Paper series designed to document models, analysis and conceptual frameworks for monetary policy preparation – they are written by Bank staff to encourage feedback and fost...

🔹 MTP 5: Monetary policymaking under uncertainty
🖋️ Alex Haberis, Richard Harrison, Kate Reinold and Matt Waldron
📖 Read here: www.bankofengland.co.uk/macro-techni... (3/4)