Tsuyoshi Goroku

x.com/egmontinstit...

Jervis Forum Article Review 188: Schendzielorz on Egeland, “The ‘Cosmic Bluff’ Revisited” H-Diplo | Robert Jervis International Security Studies Forum Article Review 188 Kjølv Egeland. “The ‘Cosmic Bluff’ Revisited: Extended Nuclear Deterrence in the US–Norway Alliance…

Jervis Forum Article Review 188: Schendzielorz on Egeland, “The ‘Cosmic Bluff’ Revisited” issforum.org/articlerevie... ノルウェーを事例に同盟国が本音では拡大抑止を信じていなくても拡大抑止は続くのではと論じた論文との由。拡大抑止を補う際にソ連を刺激しないよう通常戦力と外交に頼ったりとノルウェーならではの要素はあるようですが、書評が言うように拡大抑止はブラフなのか、ブラフとしてもソ連は抑止されていたのか等々、拡大抑止のニュアンスのある部分を考える材料になりそう

To act faster, the EU might need to abandon unanimity, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen told the Munich Security Conference.

The idea has been floated as a way of bypassing Hungary's veto on Ukraine's EU membership.

More from #MSC2026: www.politico.eu/article/muni...

The age of Takaichi dawns Understanding what happened on Sunday

My first attempt to make sense of a truly historic general election.

open.substack.com/pub/observin...

Pacific bomber operations last couple of days:

• 11 Dec: 2 B-52s (at least one (60-0032) nuclear-capable) with Japan (no flight map released): x.com/jointstaffpa...

• 9 Dec: 2 Tu-95 (nuclear-capable) and 2 H-6K around Japan (flight map released). x.com/nukestrat/st...

Our latest Nuclear Notebook is public: The changing nuclear landscape in Europe. It provides our overview of the nuclear situation, with focus on non-strategic nukes. All the players are increasing their nuclear postures. Check details here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10....

Great Power Diplomacy A captivating history of diplomacy—and an urgent reminder of why we need to revive its lost arts to survive in a dangerous era of great power competition

Great Power Diplomacy | Princeton University Press press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...

3. Memorandum From the Vice President’s Deputy Assistant for National Security Affairs (Watson) to Vice President Bush history.state.gov/historicaldo...

自民・高市氏「有事の核持ち込み」党内議論検討 自民党の高市早苗政調会長は２日の記者会見で、米国の核兵器を自国領土内に配備して共同運用する「核共有（ニュークリア・シェアリング）」について「日本の領域内に核兵…

2022年　自民・高市氏「有事の核持ち込み」党内議論検討 www.sankei.com/article/2022...

Coordination office marks first step in U.S. Forces Japan’s shift to ‘warfighting’ command www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/07...

Japan says it wants to join a NATO command for the support of Ukraine Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani says Japan wants to participate in a NATO command for its Ukrainian mission as Japan increasingly steps up military ties with the largely European security organ...

apnews.com/article/japa...

岩屋外務大臣の「欧州・インド太平洋パートナーズ会合」への出席　www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/files/...

電子版国際問題(2025年10月 No.727) 焦点:「液状化するNATOートランプ2.0政権下の大西洋同盟ー」

『国際問題』最新号は「液状化するNATOートランプ2.0政権下の大西洋同盟」特集。全編無料DL可。
「揺らぐ米国の「核の傘」への信頼：第2次トランプ政権と欧州における核抑止」を寄稿。トランプ政権発足後の欧州における核抑止を巡る動きを歴史を振り返りつつ概観しました。
www2.jiia.or.jp/BOOK/

Support for Ukraine through the Demining Coalition and others　www.mod.go.jp/en/article/2...

Japan to send SDF personnel to Lithuania for demining in war-hit Ukraine - The Mainichi TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan plans to send two Ground Self-Defense Force personnel to Lithuania to teach Ukrainian soldiers how to remove land mines as part

Japan to send SDF personnel to Lithuania for demining in war-hit Ukraine　mainichi.jp/english/arti...

F15戦闘機、欧州とカナダに初派遣へ　「防衛交流の深化を象徴」：朝日新聞 中谷元・防衛相は12日の記者会見で、航空自衛隊F15戦闘機を米国、カナダ、英国、ドイツに14日から約2週間の日程で派遣すると発表した。空自戦闘機のカナダと欧州への派遣は初めて。中国を念頭に、北大西洋…

F15戦闘機、欧州とカナダに初派遣へ　「防衛交流の深化を象徴」　digital.asahi.com/articles/AST...

Japan shows NATO support with first fighter jet deployment to Canada, Europe The mission, which involved four F-15Js along with two refueling and two transport aircraft, demonstrates the Air Self-Defense Force’s long-distance operational capabilities.

Japan shows NATO support with first fighter jet deployment to Canada, Europe　www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/10...

La France s'est opposée à une demande japonaise d'association à l'OTAN Le Monde.fr - 1er site d’information sur l’actualité. Retrouvez ici une archive du 11 mars 1983 sur le sujet La France s'est opposée à une demande japonaise d'association à l'OTAN

Dejavu www.lemonde.fr/archives/art...

Washington’s Ironclad Commitments Are Rusting in the Indo-Pacific The recent wave of meetings between U.S. officials and allies in the Indo-Pacific have been studies in the duality of American diplomacy under President

GREGORY H. WINGER, MIGUEL ALBERTO GOMEZ, AND LAUREN SUKIN,
Washington’s Ironclad Commitments Are Rusting in the Indo-Pacific warontherocks.com/2025/09/wash...

After 14 years, I think the time has come to acknowledge that the "Rebalance to Asia" has failed.

I've spent the last decade writing and thinking about how to make the rebalance successful, so this is a painful realization.

A thread on my new piece for RSIS...

'As Long As It Takes': What does it mean to commit to Ukraine's security? Join the Mile End Institute for our fourth distinguished Hennessy Lecture by the legendary Professor of War Studies, Sir Lawrence Freedman!

'"As Long As It Takes": What does it mean to commit to Ukraine's security?'

We are thrilled to welcome Sir Lawrence Freedman (@ldfreedman.bsky.social) to Queen Mary to deliver our 4th distinguished Hennessy Lecture on 8 October, 6:30.

Get your free ticket here!
www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/as-long-as...

Precisely. At some point, perhaps soon, Europe will face a hard choice: 1. do nothing & watch Russia grinding through Ukraine & getting closer to NATO territory, but keep Trump happy; 2. ignore Trump & deploy troops (or at least aircraft) to help Ukraine stop Putin. I'm for 2, but risks either way.

On troop deployment:

Macron *very* clear twice: only the day *after* the ceasefire, and any deployment must be part of a "ceasefire, a truce, or a peace agreement". In other words: no European boots on the ground before an agreement.

UTokyo ROLES Survey – Sep 2025 UTokyoROLESSurvey: SecurityAllianceandForeignEngagementResearch(SAFER)projectAimandScopeofthi...

📢Excited to share the results of the Japanese public opinion survey on foreign and security issues by UTokyo ROLES. It covers public perceptions of threats, relations with the US, nuclear issues and so on.
The 3rd edition, conducted this Aug, is available. roles.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp/en/publicati...

📢今年8月6-8日に実施した外交・安全保障問題に関する日本の世論調査の結果を公開。

昨年8月・今年2月に続く3回目の調査。過去と比べ、脅威認識や核に対する姿勢など大部分で大きな変化はありませんが、対米関係については変化がみられます。

詳細は以下リンクから👉https://roles.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp/publication/20250904ja

NATO faces its Daladier moment following Munich The Memorandum | No. 07.2025

In view of Trump's stated preference for Ukraine to cede unoccupied lands for "peace", I am re-upping my February essay:

"For European NATO countries serious about their own security, self-pity is a dead end and introspection has become useless."
www.britainsworld.org.uk/p/the-memora...

“The poll found that support for Ukraine among the American public is at its highest since early 2023.” The American public gets it even if Trump doesn’t.

What the Trump-Putin summit could mean for global diplomacy The Trump-Putin summit in Alaska is an important moment in the US’s relations with Russia, with Ukraine, and with their NATO allies, and a significant one for broader questions of international…

A piece I've written for KCL's 'Our Divided Planet' forum on the Alaska summit and why it matters even though it's very unlikely to achieve its state goals: www.kcl.ac.uk/trump-putin-...

Trump’s envoy misinterpreted Putin’s demands as concessions: media Witkoff was apparently confused as to which country’s forces should withdraw.

Gesehen bei @umland.bsky.social und @tvpworld.bsky.social

Why Poland’s president wants US nuclear weapons President Andrzej Duda said this week that US nuclear weapons should be deployed in his country. To understand why, look at not just Poland's security but also its politics.

www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...