Tsuyoshi Goroku

Why Poland’s president wants US nuclear weapons President Andrzej Duda said this week that US nuclear weapons should be deployed in his country. To understand why, look at not just Poland's security but also its politics.

www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...

イタリアもNPT加盟に際して欧州オプションの条件をつけていたのか。

A senior Western military officer with experience in the world of submarine warfare said he was not sure what tactical actions may have taken place. But he said that because submarines operate so stealthily, Mr. Trump was free to declare he was taking action and the Russians would have to decide whether or not to believe him.

Very good example of why ballistic missile submarines are a bad choice for nuclear signaling.

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/u...

Weapons of Mass Debate - Polish Deterrence with Russia in the Line of Sight Analysis by Łukasz Kulesa, Deputy Head of Research at the Polish Institute of International Affairs, for Institut Montaigne.

Łukasz Kulesa 2021, Weapons of Mass Debate - Polish Deterrence with Russia in the Line of Sight

　www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressio...

Can France and the United Kingdom Replace the U.S. Nuclear Umbrella? As doubts grow over U.S. nuclear commitments, Germany’s new chancellor has sparked debate on whether France and the United Kingdom could provide a European nuclear umbrella. But with strategic and doc...

www.csis.org/analysis/can...

Brothers in Arms: Macron, Merz and Starmer Plan for a Post-U.S. Future

Brothers in Arms: Macron, Merz and Starmer Plan for a Post-U.S. Future www.nytimes.com/2025/07/18/w...

Euro-nukes? A difficult but perhaps necessary debate Adérito Vicente argues the case for serious discussions on European nuclear security and examines what may lie ahead with regards to the EU and the nuclear field.

europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/e...

sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03455910...

The Franco-British Summit: back in business - UK in a changing Europe Following on from the first state visit from a French President since before Brexit, Georgina Wright analyses the meeting between Keir Starmer...

ukandeu.ac.uk/the-franco-b...

US Extended Nuclear Deterrence in Europe: Three Scenarios Crisis of Trust, Breach of Trust and Full Disengagement

www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...

The Franco-British Summit: back in business - UK in a changing Europe Following on from the first state visit from a French President since before Brexit, Georgina Wright analyses the meeting between Keir Starmer...

ukandeu.ac.uk/the-franco-b...

「核共有及び核持ち込み」の議論で押さえておくべきポイント： 石破新首相の主張を題材に | 米国政策コミュニティ論考紹介 | 日米関係インサイト 「核共有及び核持ち込み」の議論で押さえておくべきポイント： 石破新首相の主張を題材に 福田潤一（2024/10/10）

www.spf.org/jpus-insight...

❗New Strategy Speaks Episode❗

🇫🇷 🇬🇧 "Entente Nucléaire: France-UK Nuclear Cooperation in a Renewed Era of Deterrence", with Alexander Mattelaer, Elie Perot and Daniel Fiott

Apple🔸 podcasts.apple.com/be/podcast/s...

Spotify🔸
open.spotify.com/episode/4OUx...

Why parliamentary links are essential for the UK-German friendship treaty - UK in a changing Europe Ed Turner and Nicolai von Ondarza consider the expected ‘friendship’ treaty between the UK and Germany. They argue that beyond shared projects...

On Thursday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will visit London to sign a bilateral cooperation treaty 🇩🇪🇬🇧

To find our more about UK-German relations, the treaty and need for closer cooperation, read this from @nvondarza.bsky.social & Ed Turner 👇

ukandeu.ac.uk/why-parliame...

Elbridge Colby is Both Cause and Symptom What Bridge's foreign policy adventurism tells us about the Trump administration.

A few thoughts on Elbridge Colby’s role in the Trump administration. danieldrezner.substack.com/p/elbridge-c...

A New Nuclear Role for Britain and France. Responding to Putin and Trump

A New Nuclear Role for Britain and France.
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/a...

France asks FCAS partners to ‘rethink’ work share on fighter project “The principle and details of this redesigned cooperation are currently being discussed with the partners," French armaments agency DGA told Defense News.

France asks FCAS partners to ‘rethink’ work share on fighter project www.defensenews.com/global/europ...

Europe Needs More Conventional Forces, Not Its Own Nukes - Nuclear Network The U.S. election has renewed debate about an independent European nuclear force. Yet this distracts from the real European defense issue: a lack of conventional combat power. Europe's main task remai...

nuclearnetwork.csis.org/europe-needs...

Red Herring & Black Swan: A Bomb for Europe? - Berlin Policy Journal - Blog The question of whether Germany needs to develop its own nuclear weapon is leading nowhere. It makes more sense to think about realistic scenarios ...

berlinpolicyjournal.com/red-herring-...

Contours of European Strategic Autonomy Europe is moving on without the US, and the US does not seem to like it after all.

Today was the day when Europe announced that it is moving on:

The Franco-British agreement to establish a nuclear supervision group, and a permanent headquarters for the Ukraine coalition of the willing can become contours of a new European security architecture - this time without the US.

America’s Nuclear Umbrella Is Open and Must Stay Open There’s no alternative to the American deterrent—not for the United States, and not for Europe.

America’s Nuclear Umbrella Is Open and Must Stay Open
There’s no alternative to the American deterrent—not for the United States, and not for Europe.
ERIC S. EDELMAN AND FRANKLIN C. MILLER
www.thebulwark.com/p/americas-n...

同時代の感覚がやはりないのだが、冷戦終結後欧州は90年代は楽観主義・ユーフォリアに陥ったという話があり、それはそうなのだろうが、実際には、それ以上に2000年代半ば〜13年あたりとても呑気な感じがするのよね。あと同盟の強化は、対外脅威よりも対内「脅威」が効く？

Joshua Yaffa, How Donald Trump Got NATO to Pay Up
www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...

He laid out three conditions for extending France’s nuclear protection to European allies: Paris would not pay for the security of other countries; any deployment of France’s nuclear weapons could not deplete its ability to defend itself; and any decision to use the bombs would remain solely in the hands of the French president.

Macron's 3 conditions re any French extended nuclear deterrence scheme.

He added that the financial costs could be borne by joint European effort, or by individual countries.

I would say the maintenance of French doctrinal ambiguity represents a fourth condition/hurdle. www.ft.com/content/9623...

Strategic Simplicity welcomes Shashank Joshi for a newsy chat We catch up with Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor with The Economist about a range of topics, including the U.K. Strategic Defence Review, Ukraine's bold attack against Russian bombers, and more.

Enjoyed chatting w/ @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social & Vipin Narang for their podcast, Strategic Simplicity. We discussed the UK defence review, pros & cons of UK joining NATO nuclear sharing, and lessons about nuclear red lines from Ukraine & India-Pakistan strategicsimplicity.substack.com/p/strategic-...

Does Europe need an alternative to the US nuclear umbrella? The Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies (IFS) invites you to a breakfast seminar on the future of nuclear deterrence in Europe.

Event: "Does Europe need an alternative to the US nuclear umbrella?" 0900-1015, 18 June, Sentralen, Oslo.

I am looking forward to discussing this question with @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social, Kristin Ven Bruusgaard, and organizer Henrik Hiim (IFS).

Please find more information and registration below:

Vipin and I talk to Mallory Stewart and Mike Albertson about an arms control agreement after New START - the impediments to negotiations, what a future agreement may look like, how to factor in China's arsenal, what the USG should be doing to prepare, and more. Link below:

Euro Deterrent, Part Deux: The Podcast Edition Vipin and I dive a bit deeper into the Euro Deterrent conversation: sharing our own takes, reacting to what we've heard from others, and reflecting on our recent USG experience.

Euro Deterrent, Part Deux: The Podcast Edition strategicsimplicity.substack.com/p/euro-deter...

European Deterrence at a Crossroads: French and British Nuclear Options Published in The Washington Quarterly (Vol. 48, No. 2, 2025)

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Peter Ricketts on X: "A few thoughts on this story, since there’s been some confusion (eg @bbcnickrobinson this morning). What’s proposed here is UK joining longstanding NATO nuclear sharing ie US B61 nuclear bombs based in 🇩🇪 🇧🇪🇳🇱🇮🇹 to be delivered by those countries using dual capable aircraft./" / X A few thoughts on this story, since there’s been some confusion (eg @bbcnickrobinson this morning). What’s proposed here is UK joining longstanding NATO nuclear sharing ie US B61 nuclear bombs based in 🇩🇪 🇧🇪🇳🇱🇮🇹 to be delivered by those countries using dual capable aircraft./

リケット氏：英国のNATO核任務への懐疑的味方：https://x.com/LordRickettsP/status/1929506812488716763

「ウクライナの NATO 加盟を阻止することは、プーチンの最終目標ではなく、その目標を達成するための手段にすぎないのだ。」
thehill.com/opinion/inte...