Elliot Turner

Claude knows Jack

Love how the MS PT on WDAY is $185 now but they're equal weight. Their avg buy rated stock has way less upside.

This is the problem for every AI narrative. Nothing is falsifiable. People can just say stuff so the fear compounds.

I've been vibe coding, it's amazing. I'm doing things I never dreamed I could, but many of these alleged changes aren't going to happen. Some will though!

AMZN, META, GOOG, MSFT combined capex is ~2.2% of GDP. Railroad investment averaged 2.4% for the Gilded Age and peaked between 6-10% depending on estimates.

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Super intersting on the EPA mandated transition. Over what kind of time period will that play out? When did that start? TY!!!

In person entertainment and experiences for what AI can't remove labor certainly comes to mind. Part of the allure w MIPS for me. Participation in outdoors generally going up, alongside awareness for safety.

Lifesci/biotech IMO will be a massive beneficiary of AI. Eroom's law might finally die.

Ah we've ordered from 4imprint and I get their catalogs and some samples every year. The corporate gifting market is a good one!

Quick pitch?

I don't know it, what's the quick pitch?thank you!

I think a follow up question would be in what business interactions, workflows or decisions can people not be removed by AI? 1. Physical Retail, 2. Health Care, 3. Companies that supply hardware and services bundled with software.

Do they compete with mainly local printing/marketing cos on that front? How fragmented is the market?

Wow very interesting, I had almost forgotten this existed!!!

One I like that I haven’t seen written up anywhere is $CMPR. Coming off a big surge in capex for unified software back-end across acquired brands, and physical capex to produce “elevated” custom products. Not just biz cards.

The next closest is Ghost who has been stuck in mud at 3% share despite KDP acquiring and investing in it. Bloom is the only smaller brand growing swiftly, but $ share is not even 2% yet. It sure does seem to be stabilzing as an industry.

Happy to hear it Alex and great to hear from you! Just like the good ole days of Fintwit!!!

Koroyd is the key to that lawsuit, FYI. Beyond helmets, Koroyd expands TAM to safety more broadly, including body protection as well as functional performance for snow/splitboards, etc.

At this valuation, for top line that in worst case should do 15% 5 year CAGR at 50% contribution margins, I like!

RLS is a perceived but not true threat which chopped >30% off MIPS mkt cap. No one wants single use, especially in skiing, partners don't want to retool for the outer shell and now w/ MIPS owning Koroyd they can build an integration rotational & linear protection system that is superior.

Second is $MIPS - SE. Protect your head! 16x EV/EBITDA on '27 estimates. Litigation for a "partner" scared people last year and analysts are assuming some degree of recurrence. We think we have evidence that it's settled & is actually hugely benificial to MIPS.

Celsius: Capitalizing on the “Better-For-You” Shift in Energy Drinks Presentation at Best Ideas 2026

I'll kick if off with $CELH that I recently presented at Manual of Ideas Best Ideas 2026 conference www.latticework.com/p/celsius-ca...

It really feels like growth that's completely untethered to AI (whether vulnerable to or benefitting from) should be valued at a premium today. With that said, I'm curious what you all think are your favorite growth cos that fit the bill?

I will share a few later in the day.

Please feel free to chime in by responding to these tweets with any thoughts or comments. I hope you all enjoy!

The AI Spending Boom Is Massive But Not Unprecedented The boom in capital expenditures related to generative artificial intelligence is generating lots of questions about whether it is sustainable. Coming up with definitive answers to them is something o...

2) "The AI Spending Boom Is Massive But Not Unprecedented"

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

This Is How the AI Stock Boom Plays Out In the years after the internet stock boom-and-bust of the late 1990s and early 2000s, financial economists searched for more satisfying explanations of what had happened than “investors went crazy.” ...

Two recent op-eds from Justin worth reading for context are

1) "This Is How the AI Stock Boom Plays Out"

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

In August 2011 I interviewed Justin shortly after the Flash Crash and we had a fascinating conversation that beautifully withstands the test of time.

dropbox.com/scl/fi/681c2ecg9s6howf0picj0/Justin-Fox-Interview-August-2011.pdf?rlkey=kx6xu1du455k4zk28y6rbtrvp&st=9ixb05g4&dl=0

Please enjoy this fascinating interview with
Justin Fox revisiting The Myth of the Rational Market 15 years later. The book remains 1 of my single favorite investment books I have ever read!

twiii.podbean.com/e/bloomberg-...

It's an AI podcast where we don't talk about whether AI is in a bubble!

I loved recording this episode with @AskeladdenTX for how thoughtful Samir is and how much I learned on deploying AI in the investment process.

Must listen material here:

twiii.podbean.com/e/samir-pate...

Yeah you read that right, @pcordway was back on the pod and didn't miss a beat!

We cover a range of developments in markets over the past year and try to put the weirdness and absurdities in context.

Go listen and let us know what you think!

twiii.podbean.com/e/phil-ordwa...

The Jack discount.

Funding might actually INCREASE for spend at tools companies

$TECH giving a real-time update on NIH-backed spend trends