The Trade War Lab

‘Amazing meeting’: Trump touts progress on multiple fronts with China after meeting Xi The president said the meeting with the Chinese leader exceeded expectations, and he lowered the tariff rate.

"Trump said he got a commitment from Xi to purchase soybeans from American farmers, curb the flow of fentanyl and postpone its export restrictions on rare earths" But that TikTok "deal" remains in limbo.... www.politico.com/news/2025/10...

America’s Soybean Farmers Are Panicking Over the Loss of Chinese Buyers China, the world’s biggest soybean buyer, hasn’t booked any U.S. soybean purchases in months. Farmers warn of a “bloodbath.”

America’s Soybean Farmers Are Panicking Over Loss of Chinese Buyers

* China hasn’t booked any U.S. soybean purchases in months

* Without a deal soon, one farmer warns of “a bloodbath”

* The economics are bad enough that some farmers are already calling it quits

www.wsj.com/economy/trad...

"A Country-Specific View of Tariffs" via @NewYorkFed libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/10/a-co...
"the bulk of cross-country differences in tariff rates is explained by two factors: the U.S.-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement and differing sales shares in tariff-exempt categories"

Who is paying for Trump's tariffs? So far, it's US businesses. President Donald Trump promised during his recent campaign to impose steep tariffs on other countries, assuring voters that the cost would be paid by foreign sellers, not Americans. In September 2024,...

At least through July 2025, US firms were absorbing most of the tariff burden through compressed spreads between the cost of imported goods paid by the firms & selling prices they received. Read: https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/who-paying-trumps-tariffs-so-far-its-us-businesses

Trump making plans to send billions in cash bailouts to farmers with taxpayer money The president has also said he wants to use direct tariff revenue for the payments, but that could trigger a major fight in Congress.

The president’s tariff taxes have sent grocery prices soaring and devastated American farmers nationwide.

Now, he needs $50 BILLION to fix his mistake.

And you wonder how he bankrupted numerous businesses…
www.politico.com/news/2025/10...

Impact of Trump tariffs is beginning to show in US consumer prices Trade levies are starting to drive up costs for goods from cans of soup to car parts

Tariff impact beginning to show in prices
⚡Citigroup estimates firms have eaten 60% of tariff cost, but that will flip to 40%, with rest paid by consumers
⚡AutoZone tells investors customers will be willing to pay it, since cars won't start without needed parts
www.ft.com/content/f4bd...

Indigenous Nations Plan Tariff-Free Trade Corridor Across US-Canada border “We’re not begging for crumbs anymore. We’re demanding what’s rightly ours."

Indigenous Nations Plan Tariff-Free Trade Corridor Across US-Canada border www.motherjones.com/politics/202...

Both countries prioritize semiconductors, information tech, aviation, and nuclear energy.

Japan's bills never mention China directly and focus on resource scarcity.

US bills name China as a threat, and securitize things like TikTok with tenuous national security links.

Japan took a different path: fewer bills, tighter focus.

The 2022 ESPA law created a framework to securitize 11 materials based on criteria like supply chain vulnerability and everyday necessity. Budget: <$10B.

Compare that to the US CHIPS Act alone: >$50B.

From 2018-2024, US lawmakers introduced 166 "tough on China" bills (mostly Republican-authored).

Only 9 became law.

But in 2023 alone, proposals increased tenfold, signaling sharp acceleration in legislative appetite for restrictions.

The Politics of De-Risking As Washington and Tokyo tighten controls on trade with China, their approaches reveal both shared anxieties and strikingly different priorities.

How are the US and Japan de-risking with China?

Despite targeting many of the same sectors, their approaches reveal fundamentally different priorities.

A thread on what the legislative data shows: 🧵

www.tradewarlab.com/p/the-politi...

By Supporters' Own Standards, the Steel Tariffs Haven't Been "Effective" Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo’s misplaced agreement with Trump’s tariffs.

The Trump administration already put Section 232 tariffs on automobiles and parts, copper, steel and aluminum. Have they worked?

No. These tariffs have created few US jobs while increasing costs for many US consumers & producers that use these inputs.

www.cato.org/blog/no-secr...

US opens tariff probes into medical equipment, robotics, industrial machinery The U.S. Commerce Department said on Wednesday it has opened new national security investigations into the import of personal protective equipment, medical items, robotics and industrial machinery.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results: the Trump administration has launched new Section 232 investigations into imports of robotics, industrial machinery, and medical devices. #tradewar

www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...

Who is paying for Trump's tariffs? So far, it's US businesses. President Donald Trump promised during his recent campaign to impose steep tariffs on other countries, assuring voters that the cost would be paid by foreign sellers, not Americans. In September 2024,...

NEW: Data suggest US businesses have absorbed most of the tariff costs through July 2025, not foreign sellers.
There is very little support for Trump’s thesis that foreign sellers are absorbing tariffs by lowering their prices on US imports.
More:

When Experts Attack!: Trump’s trade war didn’t come from nowhere International trade expert Raj Bhala assesses the greatest disruption in trade since the end of World War II and asks whether manufacturing will really return to the U.S.

If you want to understand the trade war, tariffs, what's happened and what might come next, talk to an international trade law expert. That's what I did when Raj Bhala appeared on the latest episode of our When Experts Attack podcast. whenexpertsattack.libsyn.com/trumps-trade...

China’s Strategic Advances in the Global Economy Ka Zeng discusses China’s role in the global economy amid economic competition with the U.S.

How is China reshaping the global economic order?

Ka Zeng (@umassamherst.bsky.social) discusses China’s role in the global economy amid economic competition with the U.S.

▶️ Watch: https://www.ncuscr.org/video/china-global-economy/

From groceries to energy bills, Trump's tariffs and economic chaos are increasing costs for Americans.

Liberation Day Tariffs Are an Increasingly Costly Mistake The Supreme Court may soon strike down the president’s signature trade plan. It’s for the best.

Tariffs are bad. Illegal ones are worse. (via Bloomberg Opinion)

But the evidence shows broad tariffs have not succeeded in restoring lost industries. Instead, they raise costs.

The 2018 washing machine tariffs raised washer/dryer prices by about 12%, adding $1.55B annually for consumers, while creating jobs at an estimated cost of over $800,000 each per year.

The move reflects real grievances.

NAFTA brought concentrated regional job losses and the China Shock caused widespread & concentrated labor market disruption.

But research also finds that trade openness enhances 🇺🇸 economic strength by supporting growth, higher incomes, and innovation.

Why Farmers Kept Planting Crops China Wouldn’t Buy How partisan loyalty shaped farmers’ planting decisions during the U.S.–China trade war.

During Trump’s first trade war (2018–2020), China hit U.S. farmers with tariffs on soybeans and other crops. Exports collapsed. Prices fell.

Logic says farmers should’ve shifted away. Many didn’t. Some even planted more. Why? 👇

www.tradewarlab.com/p/why-farmer...

Assessing the Costs of America’s Protectionist Turn Tracing back trade expansion

America’s protectionist turn has accelerated at historic speed.

Tariffs now average 15.8%, the steepest rise since the 1930s, surpassing even Smoot-Hawley

We review the #economics literature to understand the causes & consequences of the free trade backlash!

www.tradewarlab.com/p/assessing-...

Today Trump’s “Liberation Day” IEEPA tariffs extend this dynamic, targeting an even broader set of countries.

As the executive branch increasingly picks trade winners and losers, lobbying is set to remain a central element corporate strategy for those that can afford it.

Our data also show lobbying becoming more China-focused over time, interest in China surged as firms sought tariff exclusions.

After dipping in 2020 due to the Phase One Trade Deal & COVID, it surged again under Biden as firms sought to shape semiconductor subsidies and regional trade frameworks.

The numbers are striking: in 2016, only 482 firms lobbied USTR on trade issues.

By 2018—after Trump’s Section 232 and 301 tariffs on $370B of Chinese goods—that figure jumped to 698 firms.

Lobbying expenditures rose 37.5% from 2016–2019, peaking at at $1.1B.

How Corporate Influence Reacts to U.S.–China Trade Policy New Trade War Lab data sheds light on how American firms are lobbying the USTR.

Corporate influence has quietly become a defining feature of US–China trade tensions.

Trade War Lab data shows that as tariffs uncertainty & industrial policy mounted American firms dramatically expanded their lobbying of the US Trade Representative (USTR).

www.tradewarlab.com/p/how-corpor...

Tariffs can’t bend the laws of nature. Bananas need tropics, coffee needs altitude. You can't onshore these things. So tariffs just raise prices. The White House just worked this out.

So we're getting carveouts. But only if you do a deal with the White House.
www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...

On the latest “When Experts Attack!” episode, @universityofkansas.bsky.social trade law expert Raj Bhala addresses “the greatest disruption in trade since the end of World War II,” including what tariffs mean for Canada. Listen and subscribe.

whenexpertsattack.libsyn.com/trumps-trade...

Please, don’t abandon the World Trade Organization Michael Froman, former U.S. trade representative and current president of the Council on Foreign Relations, has called for the abandonment of the rule-based international trading system overseen by…

Strong trade keeps peace strong. "Commercial wars always present the possibility of turning into shooting wars. That is one of the main reasons we created first the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and its institutional successor, the WTO, in the first place". Read more from James Bacchus ⬇️

Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?

President Trump’s tariffs are raising government revenues, but how much is the US Treasury actually collecting from US importers after the starts, stops, delays, exclusions, & other factors? And what products & countries are hit? We explore: https://bit.ly/45QWyPc