Sam Peak

Good summary of the H-1B situation by @sampeak.bsky.social

*purport* to fire.

We shouldn't just accept a framing that gives him the authority to do this.

At least she got something for her constituents out of it. Hawley bashed the bill only to fall in line and got nothing in return.

This comparsion in the NYTimes today is pretty stark. China is racing ahead to be a high-tech exporter of 21st century technologies, while the US is doubling down on being a petro-state exporting the technologies of the 19th century: www.nytimes.com/inte...

Yes! This is something that I wish hadn’t been memory-holed, because it shows how our commentary class works.

Not only did pundits widely assert that gas prices control elections, it was treated as an absolute obvious certainty. And then, when it turned out wrong, the claim was instantly abandoned.

Lotta life changes happening www.politico.com/newsletters/...

The World Cup will be the biggest international event the U.S. has hosted since before 9/11. If the State Department doesn't get its act together, this could be a major national security crisis and a historic bureaucratic debacle. 🧵

The inevitable risks: We're slashing DOS staff and making them scrutinize low-risk applicants at a time when the U.S. will be vetting the largest influx of new travelers since before 9/11. Even if we accommodate all these tourists, it may come at the expense of H1Bs, F1s, etc not being processing.

Important context on stateside processing: The U.S. did this since 2004, then stopped until we could collect process biometrics domestically. Despite the Bush Admin recommending we reinstate stateside processing in 2008, we still haven't. www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/ass...

Other ways the U.S. could self sabotage is by discontinuing the pilot program that allows foreign workers to renew their visas at home instead of going abroad. The renewal process for the pilot was quick, taking a matter of weeks. www.aila.org/library/aila...

Closures and Budget Cuts Planned for U.S. Consulates and Embassies Abroad The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has turned its attention to U.S. consulates and embassies abroad, resulting in a pared-down Visa Appointment Wait Times website and plans to close at lea...

Requiring interviews for over 4 million renewal applicants will impose enormous strains on our consular officers in ordinary circumstances. And with 6 million travelers for the World Cup and a layoff of 20% of staff from State, we could see a full blown crisis. ogletree.com/insights-res...

But even with the benefits of interview waivers, wait time for visas were still up to 850 days in some consular offices like in Ottawa. Things are about to get much worse as first-time visa applicants fight with renewal applicants over limited slots. www.npr.org/2024/08/19/n...

Worldwide Visa Operations: Update

One major setback will be the recent discontinuation of waivers of in-person interviews for visa holders who are renewing their visas. About 40% of visas issued in 2023 had their interviews waived. travel.state.gov/content/trav...

The World Cup will be the biggest international event the U.S. has hosted since before 9/11. If the State Department doesn't get its act together, this could be a major national security crisis and a historic bureaucratic debacle. 🧵

Pace Immigration on X: "Pace immigration lawyer Michael O'Rourke: "Just finished an application to remove conditions for one of our EB-5 cases. 3000 pages! Thanks to the team for their hard work on this." #EB5 #immigration #law #lawyerlife https://t.co/fBGVpVdqmR" / X Pace immigration lawyer Michael O'Rourke

The EB-5 visa requires applicants to "prove" that investments created at least 10 jobs. The process takes forever and U.S. officials have no way of knowing if jobs were actually created or saved. The Gold Card is a chance to start from scratch. x.com/paceimmigrat...

Trump's tariffs will raise prices for USA-made cars too, not just foreign imports. That's because:
1) a lot of inputs that go into US-made cars come from abroad (esp from Mexico/Canada)
2) When foreign competitors' prices go up, domestic producers often raise their prices too

To be clear: Trump did not merely say he was indifferent to higher car prices resulting from his auto tariffs ("couldn't care less"). He also said he *hopes* auto companies raise prices

NEW! The Trump administration appears to have sent a married father with NO CRIMINAL RECORD in any country to rot in a prison in El Salvador because of a PAPERWORK ERROR.

This man doesn’t even have tattoos! But his paperwork has two different peoples’ ID numbers listed and the wrong last name!

Lutnick claims to have already sold 1,000 "gold cards" for $5 million per card. In case you missed it, there is no gold card. It doesn't exist. So he is just reporting that people are willing to give Trump $5 million for.... (wink wink) "nothing"

Summary of OECD forecast revisions for US economy this year: higher inflation and slower growth than OECD had predicted right before Trump took office.

Opinion | DOGE says it’s saving $100 billion. It’s about to lose a lot more. Cuts to the IRS will backfire by giving tax evaders a free pass.

Tidbit from Natasha Sarin: IRS's customer phone service is deteriorating, in part because employees are spending all day queued up to use shared agency computers so they can respond to DOGE’s requests for weekly emails on 5 bullet points detailing their work
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Musk’s Fraudulent Fraud Squad A tired trope gets a new lease of life

New from @pamherd.bsky.social & I:
Musk and Trump are modernizing the fraud trope, using it in new ways:
*Targeting core programs in unprecedented ways
*Undermining the government’s capacity to address fraud
*Providing a veil of legitimacy for state capture 🧵
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/musks-frau...

According to the CBP briefing documents, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement is preparing to more than double its detention capacity by opening four new 10,000-bed facilities and 14 smaller sites with space for 700 to 1,000 people. The Department of Defense may also utilize military bases as holding facilities, the document says. Trump officials have told lawmakers they will need billions of dollars in additional funding to meet the president’s deportation goals by ramping up ICE detention capacity.

! The Trump administration wants ICE to build four detention centers each with 10,000 bed capacity. Only the LA County Jail and Rikers are larger, and that's about the size of the Cook County and Harris County jails.

That would cost tens of billions and require thousands of new personnel.

They would have to apply for Special Immigrant Juvenile status I guess?

No, we are not producing too many STEM graduates The social media firestorm over H-1B visas over the last few weeks has resurfaced a long-running debate about the return to earning a STEM degree.

NEW from EIG’s Agglomerations:

“No, we are not producing too many STEM graduates”, from Connor O'Brien and @benglasner.bsky.social lasner, who show that STEM majors earn a premium even in non-STEM jobs.

Read more agglomerations.substack.com/p/no-we-are-...

I'm not liking the fearmongering over the birthright citizenship EO. People should at least provide context that it will be enjoined and struck down by the courts. There is plenty for people to be worried about, let's not add more shit.

Bernie's op-ed about H-1Bs is misleading. The website he cites to prove his point that Tesla pays low wages says that they offer a median salary of $145,000 and only 7% of offered salaries are less than $100,000. h1bdata.info/index.php?em...

Huh. “Operation Return to Sender” was previously the name of a national ICE operation, not a Border Patrol operation. Not sure what, if anything, to read into that.

Most Fed officials believe "upside risks" to inflation outlook have increased, in part because of expected changes to immigration/trade policy under Trump. www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...

Bernie staffer: "H-1Bs are cheap labor replacing Americans."

Me: Actually when you adjust for age, H-1Bs make significantly more than their American counterparts. And they're among the top 10% of income earners.

Bernie staffer: The fact that they're young is part of the scam!