Andrew Prokop

Grimly funny that after all the corruption, incompetence, scandals, chaos, and bloodshed, the last straw for Kristi Noem was a comment at a hearing that annoyed Trump

Quote from WSJ article: "f Trump succeeds in turning Venezuela and Iran from implacably hostile to at least neutral or even friendly regimes, the geopolitical benefit is enormous. With Arab-Israeli relations slowly warming, albeit strained by Israel’s war in Gaza, a normalization of relations between Iran and the U.S. might mean the end of Middle East conflict as a constant threat to the global economy. Military assets devoted to the region could turn to the Indo-Pacific."

These "imagine if the war goes beautifully and perfectly" articles are getting increasingly maddening. Can't believe people are writing stuff like this with a straight face

www.wsj.com/world/middle...

Since January I’ve been on parental leave, which is the closest I ever get to normie levels of news consumption, and can confirm

So much stuff flying by, so little time to make sense of it unless you’re obsessed or it’s your job

Funnily enough, the same thing had happened to Spielberg just a few years earlier, with Catch Me If You Can — Abagnale's memoir of being a con artist was largely fabricated.

Spielberg loves a good yarn!

(First screenshot is from Ronen Bergman's book Rise and Kill First)

The weirdest thing about Munich, which I rarely see discussed, is Spielberg thought he was adapting a nonfiction book, but it became clear the book's account was fabricated.

Kushner clearly not eager to talk about the book here

Perfect embodiment of the Free Press ethos here.

Sure Trump illegally put his name on the Kennedy Center, purged the board, is making it a politicized personal platform like no other president, but the *real* problem is some arts people now don't want to perform there anymore

It is not a "psyop" exactly but the focus on data center water use is definitely a strategic choice made by rich progressive donors and foundations who are funding various anti-AI activist campaigns.

Probably. Rufo + Trump Admin policy changes spurred by Rufo

www.nytimes.com/2025/11/29/u...

However one thing @daveweigel.bsky.social timeline misses is that Rufo drew attention to the story on 11/19 which is actually what kick-started the new round of right-wing obsession over this issue (which preceded the 11/29 NYT report)
www.city-journal.org/article/minn...

A+ thread here with many insightful points about how the information environment functions now

Stage Door is so great, hope somebody restores it. Wild that Ann Miller is in it and in Mulholland Drive

So as far as impact what we're really talking about is that the people voting for the sub-15% candidates would have their votes reallocated — but not quickly enough to matter in the national conversation, and making only a minor impact on delegate allotment

The lengthy time to tally reallocated RCV results would likely render any "narrative" value from winning a reallocated vote null.

And unlike winner-take-all elections, the Dem pres. primary already has an incentive for candidates to stay in — if they hit 15% they get delegates

Doing a national primary held on a single day with RCV would make some sense, but the idea of grafting RCV onto the Dem presidential primary -- 57 separate contests held over a period of months that each allot delegates -- seems a bit strange.

CNN article excerpt: "It is against the law, generally, to impersonate a federal official"

CNN floats one possibility

www.cnn.com/2025/11/20/p...

Who convened this grand jury and how long will they keep their job now that this story is out?

Wet Hot American Summers On the recent Epstein disclosures, the future (?) Epstein disclosures, and what comes next?

. @brianbeutler.bsky.social must be held accountable for this podcast title

www.politix.fm/p/wet-hot-am...

The huge number of legal errors and abuses competing to kill the Comey prosecution are kinda like Mr. Burns's various diseases

Signs that a shutdown-ending deal could be coming soon.

Polls asking "do you approve of Trump's immigration policy" show rising disapproval.

But polls asking what people think of both Republicans *and Democrats* on immigration often continue to give Rs the edge.

Same with crime.

www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...

The public's dismal view of the Biden Admin was a fundamental faced by Harris between July - Nov 2024.

In the discourse, though, "fundamentals" is often used to argue "there's nothing Democrats could have done differently."

But they could have made different governance choices earlier!

One reason to think fundamentals don't determine the decisive margin in close races is that political scientists have not, in fact, figured out how to determine how races will play out with pinpoint accuracy beforehand.

Good fundamentals models can put them in the ballpark but aren't precise

It is possible that "fundamentals" — a slippery concept that sometimes includes objective metrics on the economy (but which metrics?), and sometimes includes presidential approval which is harder to nail down — determine *most* of how an election will go.

Do they determine the decisive margin?

Pretty much everyone who actually runs in a competitive race believes moderating your views on certain issues to better fit the electorate — "Zohran's position on the NYPD has evolved" — is a good strategy.

Trump is underwater on many issues but he is truly, epically underwater on inflation/prices (-34)

d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...

Or, the things they disliked about the Biden economy (high prices and high interest rates) haven't gone away in the Trump II economy

In particular Republicans *loved* the Trump I pre-Covid economy and even many Dems liked it.

Today Republicans are much less positive on the Trump II economy (though few blame Trump for it).

Seems like people don't like high prices and high interest rates

www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

It seems to me that the persistence of public pessimism on the Biden/Trump II economy argues against a vibes-first theory of the economy and public opinion.

People liked the Trump I pre-Covid economy and they don't like this one.

The report also mentions that people liked getting stimulus and thought that if inflation happened later in the year it would be "a temporary increase"

bsky.app/profile/devi...