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Tom Chivers

@tomchivers.bsky.social

"Far too nice to be a journalist," per Terry Pratchett. Lead writer on Semafor's Flagship newsletter. DMs open; chiversthomas(a)gmail. Latest book, Everything is Predictable: geni.us/EIPBook Podcast, The Studies Show: https://www.thestudiesshowpod.com

13,144 Followers  |  88 Following  |  136 Posts  |  Joined: 23.06.2023  |  1.9205

Latest posts by tomchivers.bsky.social on Bluesky

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From the ThatsInsane community on Reddit: Scotland police detain a man wearing an anti-Al shirt because it sounds similar to "Palestine Action" Explore this post and more from the ThatsInsane community

We really need to dial down the anti-free speech bullshit in this country. Police should almost never detain people over their choice of T-shirt! (And I would say the same if the political valence was reversed.) www.reddit.com/r/ThatsInsan...

19.08.2025 12:04 β€” πŸ‘ 16    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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BIG NEWS: My book, The Land Trap, is coming out on Nov 4! I've been fascinated by this topic for years. The book tells the story of why land still occupies such a huge role in finance, economics and politics globally, and why that's a source of huge risk. You can preorder NOW!

15.08.2025 15:06 β€” πŸ‘ 73    πŸ” 15    πŸ’¬ 6    πŸ“Œ 2

this is top stuff

14.08.2025 08:11 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Jewellery chain Claire’s UK business appoints administrators High-street brand’s move puts more than 2,000 jobs at risk and comes after parent group filed for bankruptcy protection

It's just the Claire's Accessories, the simple Claire's Accessories, where you could buy a bracelet for your wife

Farewell then Claire's Accessories, your retail staff can rest at ease, as you collapse in economic strife www.ft.com/content/b32d...

14.08.2025 07:50 β€” πŸ‘ 54    πŸ” 8    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 6

yes. It was that they assumed all my warplanes were examples of me bottling out of commenting on the gender wars. Which, to be clear, quite often they were! But women didn't have the luxury of bottling out because it was their rights under threat, was the theory.

04.08.2025 13:59 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I had quite a few on here! x.com/TomChivers/s...

04.08.2025 13:13 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

quick, add one to your take thread alex

04.08.2025 13:11 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

well, quite. It seemed so odd.

04.08.2025 13:11 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I know from being the subject of twitterstorms that having a few hundred people ganging up on you is not pleasant, and I sympathise, but if they're being polite then, frankly, you're on the internet having opinions, and people will disagree with them, so either defend them or use the mute button.

04.08.2025 13:10 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

it was male privilege, because women didn't have the option of not engaging in online arguments. (I know I sound like I'm making it up, but I swear I am not, and I really did find it very deflating)

04.08.2025 13:05 β€” πŸ‘ 12    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 6    πŸ“Œ 0

this is "no true scotsman" though. The reason I dislike that comic was that it was employed to say "stop asking me to back up my point/stand by my inflammatory claim about Not All Men" etc. I disagree that's not "really" what sealioning is; that's how it was used, in a large number of cases.

04.08.2025 13:03 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

🀝 I nicked the idea from Jesse Singal but his was really boring (sorry Jesse); just posting a picture of a pineapple each time. I felt it was ripe for improvement

04.08.2025 10:25 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

this is like when I had a thread of beautiful British warplanes, to which I would add an image every time I resisted the temptation to reply grumpily to someone's tweet. But then someone said it was [bad for culture war reasons], and that took all the fun out of it, so I stopped.

04.08.2025 10:19 β€” πŸ‘ 21    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

the implication that politely asking people to back up their position is abusive. And, yes, "sealioning" was a popular term, but in my experience it often meant "yes I made a controversial claim, but I don't like you asking me to support it with facts and it is bigoted that you continue to do so"

04.08.2025 10:13 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Just finished @tomchivers.bsky.social β€œEverything is predictable”.

5 stars because it manages history of science and intuition better than any other book on Bayesian analysis.

03.08.2025 12:17 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

thank you!

04.08.2025 09:45 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

that is true although that wasn't specified in your tweet (if you had said "the wrongest historical cartoon" I would have stayed silent) and so I assumed you'd wandered off the original topic

31.07.2025 13:36 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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honorable mention for this, which I don't think I can exactly say is "wrong" because it doesn't make any factual claims but I strongly dislike its implications

31.07.2025 13:34 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
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counterpoint

31.07.2025 13:33 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 1

thanks Julia!

25.07.2025 14:16 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

what a nice thing to read!

22.07.2025 13:59 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

"A confident, precise prior that is contradicted by precise information from the world should result in a radically changed posterior probability" - @tomchivers.bsky.social, "Everything is Predictable"

One of those delightful books that will change how I live in this world. Thanks.

22.07.2025 11:56 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

thank you!

16.07.2025 14:16 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

My most core political opinion - generic liberalism aside - is that the left on both sides of the Atlantic will never truly recover until it is honest with the public and explains that taxes on the middle classes have to rise to pay for public services, not just those on the super rich

09.07.2025 14:14 β€” πŸ‘ 263    πŸ” 50    πŸ’¬ 32    πŸ“Œ 14

close enough

09.07.2025 14:29 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Everything Is Predictable: How Bayes' Remarkable Theorem Explains the World eBook : Chivers, Tom: Amazon.co.uk: Kindle Store Everything Is Predictable: How Bayes' Remarkable Theorem Explains the World eBook : Chivers, Tom: Amazon.co.uk: Kindle Store

Guys! GUYS! Everything Is Predictable is now available for Β£1 on Kindle! amazon.co.uk/Everything-P... You're robbing me blind! I'm cutting my own throat! You can't afford NOT to buy it!

09.07.2025 14:09 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0
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Subscribe to The Studies Show Podcast A weekly podcast about the latest scientific controversies, with Tom Chivers and Stuart Ritchie. Click to read The Studies Show Podcast, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.

Absolutely fascinating Studies Show pod from @tomchivers.bsky.social & @stuartjritchie.bsky.social on psychological sex differences (biological, societal, both)- well worth paying for: www.thestudiesshowpod.com/subscribe - I just wish Stuart's profile had no pic: I prefer to see him as David Tennant

08.07.2025 08:44 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I heard that! I immediately thought "linear no threshold model" (and then "bullshit")

09.07.2025 14:09 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Photograph of a bald uakari monkey with a bright red face and head, light brown eyes, and a partially open mouth showing some teeth. The monkey has light brown fur around its face and neck. Text at the bottom reads, "In Brazil, the bald uakari is known as 'o macaco InglΓͺs' which translates to 'the English monkey'".

Photograph of a bald uakari monkey with a bright red face and head, light brown eyes, and a partially open mouth showing some teeth. The monkey has light brown fur around its face and neck. Text at the bottom reads, "In Brazil, the bald uakari is known as 'o macaco InglΓͺs' which translates to 'the English monkey'".

Luv me trees. Luv me fruit. Luv me rainforest. Simple as.

28.05.2025 22:52 β€” πŸ‘ 123    πŸ” 9    πŸ’¬ 7    πŸ“Œ 0
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The Average Ring Size For Men And Women | myGemma | GB Find out the average ring size for men and women. We explain how to buy engagement rings if you don't know ring size. GB

like I say, that study could be badly done or wrong, but the idea isn't made up, and there seem to be a few others saying the same thing. And this ring company says that average ring size sold in Asia is 5 but in Europe it's 7, so I guess there must be something in it mygemma.com/en-gb/blogs/...

26.05.2025 12:40 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

@tomchivers is following 20 prominent accounts