Riordan Frost

Household Mobility Fell to Record Low in 2024

Household mobility fell to its lowest rate on record in 2024, with just over 1 in 10 households moving. Homeowners drove the decline as they faced high interest rates and home prices, while renter mobility stayed flat. @riordanfrost.bsky.social

www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/househo...

New ACS data show US household mobility hit another record low in 2024, driven by homeowners staying put amid high prices & rates—especially younger owners. In my @harvard-jchs.bsky.social post, I unpack the data and reflect on what may have happened in 2025: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/househo...

Happy #MapMonday! In top homebuilding metros, immigrants play a major role in supplying housing. Check out this bubble map (size = building permits, color = foreign-born share of the construction trades) in my latest @harvard-jchs.bsky.social blog: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/homebui...

Happy #MapMonday! Rural home prices soared after the pandemic, by 36% in non-metro counties and fully 47% in vacation counties from 2020–2023, per new work from my @harvard-jchs.bsky.social colleagues @aherm.bsky.social & @pjwhit.bsky.social. www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/home-pr...

Column | In these U.S. groups, deaths now exceed births. What’s happening? The United States is not far from the point where, each winter, deaths will regularly edge out births

Happy #MapMonday! Where are deaths outpacing births? Per @washingtonpost.com, mostly older, whiter counties: www.washingtonpost.com/business/202.... Similar patterns in my @harvard-jchs.bsky.social blog on how migration has offset natural loss in many places: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/post-pa....

Happy #MapMonday! Net migration in rural areas surged during the pandemic—and remains high. In many of these communities, migration is offsetting steep natural loss. See where in the dark green on the map, and read more in my new @harvard-jchs.bsky.social blog: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/post-pa....

The @gsd.harvard.edu seeks to appoint a distinguished scholar and/or practitioner with a deep understanding of housing markets, practice, and policy to serve as the Nicolas P. and Joan B. Retsinas Director of the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies.

www.jchs.harvard.edu/nicolas-p-an...

After losing population for much of the 2010s, rural areas have been consistently gaining population in the post-pandemic era, writes @riordanfrost.bsky.social in a new blog.

Try the interactive map:
www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/post-pa...

In just five years, the income needed to afford the median-priced home nearly doubled—from $68k to $131k. Getting payments back to 2020 levels would require interest rates to be nearly zero, per @harvard-jchs.bsky.social
www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/lower-i...
#FigureFriday #housing #affordability

Happy #MapMonday! How much did each metro area depend on immigration for growth last year, and which ones will therefore feel the effects of the recent slowdown most acutely? Find out in the interactive map in my new @harvard-jchs.bsky.social blog post: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/metro-a....

Metro Area Growth at Risk from Recent Drop in Immigration Population growth in many metropolitan areas is in doubt given the recent steep drop in immigration, which could undercut household growth and housing

The recent slowdown in immigration has big implications for pop growth in metro areas. My latest @harvard-jchs.bsky.social blog discusses how metros will need to rely instead on (declining) natural growth or (unevenly distributed) domestic migration: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/metro-a...

They Couldn’t Afford Homes in the Big City. So They Left.

With high home prices & interest rates, what's a first-time homebuyer to do? Move far afield, according to a @nytimes.com article from this weekend that cites the paper on millennial suburbanization that I co-authored with @airbrycki.bsky.social & Hyojung Lee: www.nytimes.com/2025/08/31/r...

New Housing Slows Rent Growth Most for Older, More Affordable Units The nationwide housing shortage has driven rents up more in low-income neighborhoods than in the U.S. overall, but in areas that have recently added large amounts of housing, rents have fallen the mos...

New research from @pewtrusts.org finds that new housing slows rent growth most for older, more affordable units, and not allowing more homes to be built—even for high-income residents—pushes up all rents.

www.pew.org/en/research-...

Today's affordability crisis is undercutting tomorrow's homeownership rate. This new paper projects a 1.6pp decline in the HO rate by 2035 on the low end and a 0.8 pp increase on the high end. The low scenario accounts for today's unaffordability by applying historically low HO gains to <35 cohorts.

Downtown Boston housing prices have stagnated. Here’s what that means for the city. - The Boston Globe Housing prices in Massachusetts have soared in the last decade but have barely appreciated in parts of downtown. Why build more?

Why haven’t downtown Boston housing prices appreciated? First, there has been an exodus to the suburbs, even among millennials who once seemed to embrace city life, says @riordanfrost.bsky.social. But now, he says, “more millennials are suburbanizing than not.”

www.bostonglobe.com/2025/07/30/b...

Happy #MapMonday! How much did counties gain/lose from domestic migration in 2024? In my new @harvard-jchs.bsky.social paper, I show that inflows to lower-density places were elevated through 2024. Explore the map: www.datawrapper.de/_/cGxny and the paper: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/five-wa...

This state map shows how annual average net domestic migration changed from the pre-pandemic period (defined as 2010–2011 to 2019–2020) to the post-pandemic period (defined as 2022–2023 to 2023–2024). It shows that in many states in the southeast, inflows accelerated, which was also true for a few states in the Mountain West and New England. Many states in the Northeast and Midwest, on the other hand, had lower outflows after the pandemic than they did before, and several states in these regions also had net outflows before the pandemic but net inflows afterwards. Only a few states, namely California, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Maryland, and Louisiana, had higher outflows than before the pandemic. Most states in the southwest had lower inflows than before the pandemic, and in the Pacific Northwest, Washington and Oregon both had net outflows after the pandemic, a change from having net inflows beforehand.

Happy #MapMonday! Here's a map from my new @harvard-jchs.bsky.social paper on pandemic-era changes in residential mobility! Shifts are emerging in Midwest and Northeast states, while much (but not all) of the Sunbelt keeps drawing more inflows. Explore the map: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/five-wa...

Many Americans who left large cities during the pandemic headed to suburbs, small cities, and rural areas. New York had one of the country’s largest net outflows during the pandemic, but the number of people leaving the state is now below prepandemic levels, says @riordanfrost.bsky.social.

Happy #MapMonday! What was the largest source of population growth by county in 2024? Immigration played a *big* role, esp. in higher-density areas. Domestic migration remained elevated in lower-density areas. Natural change played a smaller role. Explore the map: www.datawrapper.de/_/U6L0i/

This county map of the United States shows the largest source of population growth for each county in 2023, between three components: domestic migration, immigration, and natural change. For very few counties, there was net zero or loss in every component. For many urban counties, natural change is the largest component, while for much of the Sunbelt, domestic migration is the largest component. For much of the Midwest and Northeast, immigration was the largest component.

Happy #MapMonday! What was the largest source of population growth in each county in 2023? Many urban counties relied most on natural change, many Sunbelt counties relied on domestic migration, and immigration played a role throughout the country. Explore the map: datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QrDYw/4/.

Happy #MapMonday! I’ve been thinking about baby boomers aging into older adulthood (61-79 this year), and it is apparent from this median age by county map that the effects of an aging population will be felt unevenly. Explore the map here: datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xFm4W/2/

This is a state map of the United States showing net domestic migration for those aged 26-34 in 2019. It shows that many southern and western states had high net inflows of young adults, while many Midwestern and Northeastern states had outflows.

This is a state map of the United States showing net domestic migration for those aged 26-34 in 2021. It shows that many southern states had high net inflows of young adults, while many Midwestern states had outflows. Many western and Northeastern states had lower net inflows.

Happy #MapMonday! Is the draw of the Pacific Northwest over? There was a notable downturn during the pandemic in net inflows in Washington and Oregon, which were previously migration magnets, especially for young adults. These two maps show the slowdown in 26-34yo net inflows b/t 2019 and 2021.

What Trump means for people experiencing homelessness Street Sense has tried to map out how the federal government under Trump might change its approach to homelessness over the next four years.

A move away from housing first solutions for homelessness. Further criminalization of sleeping outdoors. Cuts to housing programs. These are some things advocates and people experiencing homelessness worry could be on the horizon. @riordanfrost.bsky.social

streetsensemedia.org/article/what...

Agreed, that's what Urban's within-state analysis found in Georgia, none of the counties with the major cities met the criteria.

This state map shows which states have birth rates and marriage rates above the national rates in 2023. It shows that states with high birth and marriage rates are concentrated in the Midwest, Southeast, and Mountain West. States with neither are concentrated in the Northeast. A handful of western states have only high marriage rates, and a handful of mostly Midwestern states have only high birth rates.

Happy #MapMonday! Building on recent analysis by @yfreemark.bsky.social & Lindiwe Rennert at @urbaninstitute.bsky.social of the US DOT's plan to prioritize funding to places with high birth and marriage rates, here is a state map showing which states had above-national rates in 2023.

For #MapMonday, I wanted to add a different angle to the discussion of HUD's 2024 #homelessness point-in-time count by showing changes by state since the onset of the pandemic (i.e. Jan 2020–Jan 2024). Only 4 states had any decline, while 9 states saw increases of 50% or more. [Corrected legend]

Happy #MapMonday! This map of natural population change in 2024 shows that most states had more births than deaths, which is true even for states with net migrant outflows (e.g. CA). Migration or immigration drive population change in most states, though, due to steadily declining natural change.

A map of immigration rates by state for 2023. It shows that most states gained more than 4 immigrants per 1,000 people in 2023, with the exception of states in New England, the Mountain West, and Appalachia. States with the highest rates including populous states like California, Texas, Illinois, New York, Massachusetts, and Florida, but also less populous states like Rhode Island, Utah, and Nevada.

A map of immigration rates by state for 2024. It shows that most states gained more than 4 immigrants per 1,000 people in 2023, with the exception of states in New England, the Mountain West, and Appalachia. States with the highest rates including populous states like California, Texas, Illinois, New York, Massachusetts, and Florida, but also less populous states like Rhode Island, Utah, Kentucky, Iowa, Nebraska, and North Dakota.

Happy #MapMonday! Further insight into the surge in immigration in the past few years is now available from the revised 2023 and 2024 estimates from Census Vintage 2024 PEP data. The maps below show that many states have had relatively high immigration rates, even some you might not expect.

This state map shows rates of domestic migration by state in 2023. It shows that the states with the highest rates of inflows are in the Sunbelt and Mountain West, plus Delaware and Maine. States with the highest outflow rates are primarily high-cost states like California, New York, Hawaii, and Massachusetts.

This is a map showing net domestic migration rates in 2024. It shows that the states with the highest rates of inflow are in the Sunbelt and Mountain West, though notably this does not include Texas and Florida (which have inflows but not as high). States with high rates of outflows include high-cost states like New York, Hawaii, and California.

Happy #MapMonday! Census 2024 state population estimates came out last month, and the domestic migration patterns are fascinating. Sunbelt is still gaining the most migrants but the flows have slowed, most notably for Texas and Florida. Bonus map to show change from 2023.

Note that PEP data is from July 1-July 1, so 2024 data represents July 2023-July 2024, not 2024 calendar year. CBO estimates are still higher than even the revised Census numbers but the difference is much smaller now. #data #immigration #census