Dr. Raymond Kuo | 郭泓均's Avatar

Dr. Raymond Kuo | 郭泓均

@kuorum.bsky.social

Expert on international order and Asian security. Director, Taiwan Policy Initiative and Senior Political Scientist @ RAND. πŸ‡ΉπŸ‡ΌπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Website: https://www.raymondkuo.com/

8,858 Followers  |  1,002 Following  |  726 Posts  |  Joined: 05.09.2023
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Posts by Dr. Raymond Kuo | 郭泓均 (@kuorum.bsky.social)

Please stay safe!

28.02.2026 20:34 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

This was one of the underrated benefits of leaving academia. Mentoring amazing junior colleagues is both rewarding in its own right and directly helpful personally when the right incentives are in place.

25.02.2026 23:43 β€” πŸ‘ 17    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

It took me YEARS to understand what they were reacting to! πŸ˜‰

23.02.2026 04:50 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Me: "why not? He's got 3 horns?"

"Okay, but you just can't."

So I pick Petey instead. And now he's my daughter's triceratops. ❀️

23.02.2026 04:45 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

My parents get me a brown triceratops doll from the museum, and my sister a grey stegasaurus. They ask me, "what do you want to name it?"

I have no idea. Hours later, I come down the stairs with my answer.

"Horny."

My parents' faces immediately fall. "You can't name him that!"

23.02.2026 04:45 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Agreed, but let me explain. 6yo me at the Philly museum of natural history. I loved the animatronic dinosaurs there.

Down the street from my 2nd favorite museum, the Ben Franklin Institute.

23.02.2026 04:45 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

CISA used to have a role in elections, as they were considered critical infrastructure. But I believe DOGE cut the part out.

14.02.2026 17:23 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Linda Tripp

12.02.2026 16:52 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Basically a chicken pot pie filling with wild rice subbing for potatoes. Then tater tots on top.

11.02.2026 14:19 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Candles in lake Harriet spelling out "abolish ice."

Candles in lake Harriet spelling out "abolish ice."

07.02.2026 02:40 β€” πŸ‘ 10    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Congratulations!

03.02.2026 18:16 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1

Predicting that this week we’ll hear more conciliatory words from the Administration regarding Minnesota (since they’re starting to realize that ICE has become politically toxic) but everyone outside of Minnesota needs to know that nothing on the ground has changed.

02.02.2026 20:43 β€” πŸ‘ 5951    πŸ” 2143    πŸ’¬ 94    πŸ“Œ 44

Oh, good point!

30.01.2026 17:34 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1

Probably not, at least wrt the US. Other country cases could provide insight, but would have to account for militarily armed PDs and citizens.

This is like omni-directional coup proofing. Maybe Palestine as an example?

30.01.2026 17:29 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

PDs vs fed - totally agree. Although bc the police aren't enforcing traffic laws ag feds, it's led to lots of reckless and dangerous driving, made worse by the ice and snow.

30.01.2026 17:24 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Yeah, this whole thing is a C2 and discipline/morale nightmare. I've heard someone suggest that once the NG's called up, command authority cannot be passed over, but I have no idea if that's actually true.

30.01.2026 17:24 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Local PDs are not helping ICE/CBP, but they are also not ticketing/arresting them either. That makes sense given how many more agents there are and also bc of how poorly trained many of them are.

30.01.2026 17:13 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Yes, and even there, I'm very concerned about fratricide if the National Guard comes into contact with federal agents and/or experiences a conflicting chain of command.

30.01.2026 17:13 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

In other words, things haven't changed here at all, and the operation is still ongoing.

29.01.2026 14:43 β€” πŸ‘ 21    πŸ” 9    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1

Thanks ❀️ We're doing okay, and it's been incredible to see the community come together and support each other. I'd say the overall mood is defiant, and that's certainly where I am.

Still, I hate that I had to teach my kids specific phrases to use if they encounter ICE/CBP.

28.01.2026 22:09 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I have been constantly and righteously angry for weeks. I'd recommend leaning into it. πŸ˜‰ It's actually proven useful in coping with ICE/CBP's presence.

28.01.2026 21:51 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

It...should be? I suppose one caveat is cost of living where they are. $50k in the boonies vs. NYC etc.

28.01.2026 21:42 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

So "how much is in your bank account on the day sampled" would be a necessary control. Maybe?

28.01.2026 21:30 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I buy that the date sampled satisfies the exclusion restriction, but what about monotonicity conditional upon covariates? I can buy that you feel more financially secure the closer you are to the payment date, but also that you may have less funds available in the run-up to that date.

28.01.2026 21:30 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Bruce Springsteen - Streets Of Minneapolis (Official Audio)
YouTube video by Bruce Springsteen Bruce Springsteen - Streets Of Minneapolis (Official Audio)

I wrote this song on Saturday, recorded it yesterday and released it to you today in response to the state terror being visited on the city of Minneapolis. It’s dedicated to the people of Minneapolis, our innocent immigrant neighbors and in memory of Alex Pretti and Renee Good.

Stay free

28.01.2026 17:02 β€” πŸ‘ 97509    πŸ” 40920    πŸ’¬ 4305    πŸ“Œ 5374

Obviously, this doesn't help us now, but hopefully it's a marker for future remembrance and honor.

27.01.2026 23:43 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Earlier today, I discovered I am eligible to nominate candidates for the Nobel Peace Prize (@nobelprize.org). I nominated "the people of the Twin Cities".

27.01.2026 23:35 β€” πŸ‘ 28    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Hayashi Department Store(εŽŸζž—η™Ύθ²¨) On June 30th 2013, the Hayashi Department Store(ζž—η™Ύθ²¨), the largest of Tainan's old building's, was opened for tours after refurbishment. Crowds lined up from 7 am until the afternoon to enter t...

Yeah, it's beautiful. Got it at the Hayashi department store in Tainan: www.twtainan.net/en/attractio...

Made by Gentle-wood studio: www.gentlewood.com.tw/pages/founta...

22Studio also has some lovely concrete pens: 22designstudio.net/pages/concre...

27.01.2026 18:29 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Hand carved fountain pen showing the nib.

Hand carved fountain pen showing the nib.

Here you go!

27.01.2026 17:08 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

That was my initial thought as well when I first saw the gun. But I didn't see any discharge in the videos.

27.01.2026 04:03 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0