Dr. Raymond Kuo | 郭泓均

Excellent piece, including this quote from the head of Greece's statistical agency about why fights over data are also fights about whether a country can see itself clearly:

Made a related pt at an AI conference a couple weeks back. Ppl focus on power and compute, forgetting that the data is foundational.

Too many engineers or ppl uninterested in the data generating process, too few social scientists and statisticians.

It has been the honor of my life to serve as Commissioner of BLS alongside the many dedicated civil servants tasked with measuring a vast and dynamic economy. It is vital and important work and I thank them for their service to this nation.

Principle #4 is "Independence from Political and Other Undue External
Influence."

Not having that undermines Principle 2: "Credibility Among Data Users and Stakeholders" and Principle 3: "Trust Among the Public and Data Subjects".

I recently helped to stand up a federal statistical agency, of which BLS is one This is the key statement of principles and practices: www.nationalacademies.org/our-work/8th...

👍

Congratulations!

Thank you!

Taiwan’s Risky No-Holds-Barred Politics | Journal of Democracy The drama of the country’s divided government just played out in a failed, high-stakes vote to recall two-dozen opposition legislators. How both sides respond could determine the fate of Taiwan’s…

Thanks to @jodemocracy.bsky.social for publishing my latest on Taiwan's recent recall campaign and the long-term challenges it may pose for the country's democracy.

www.journalofdemocracy.org/online-exclu...

#TWSky

It's an okay platform for finding leads, but i think of it as a conduit to get information and contacts into a more actionable position. Also, I don't like social media aspect. Like the false cheeriness of FB combined the vacuousness of corporate speak.

Continuing from my academic time: cross-posting and sharing new publications. All professionally oriented.

During transition and now: same, but useful for organizing contacts, connecting with ppl professionally (not at FB or Twitter) and seeing mutuals

Opinion | Why American Jews No Longer Understand One Another

Excellent piece by Ezra Klein: www.nytimes.com/2025/07/20/o...

Oh hell no! Definitely get eaten. Then again, I've seen zookeepers scratch the heads and chins of cheetahs who patiently sit on their haunches as lunch is served.

Cheetahs. They are technically small cats, and some have been domesticated.

Beneath the problematic surface, the New York Times’ Kursk reporting reveals a deeper moral rot I really don't want to write what I'm about to write. As someone who regularly tries to get close to the active combat zone of Russia's war against Ukraine, tell the stories of those in the middle of ...

"In these fraught times, the New York Times has made a seemingly deliberate and very self-aware choice to paint a picture of this war without the understanding of who is in the right and who is in the wrong," writes Francis Farrell, reporter at the Kyiv Independent, in this op-ed.

DC folks

There is an urgent need to care for babies and young children in our community whose parents have been detained, deported, or otherwise snatched by our government. St Paul’s episcopal church is serving as a collection point for money, formula, and diapers.

onrealm.org/StPaulsRockC...

Since April 4, #SCOTUS has issued 15 rulings on 17 emergency applications filed by Trump (three birthright citizenship apps were consolidated).

It has granted relief to Trump ... in all 15 rulings.

It has written majority opinions in only 3.

Today's order is the 7th with no explanation *at all.*

White mug with "the London school of economics and political science" in black lettering. The LSE's red logo is just visible on the left.

Today's mug: From an alma mater.

Drinking Tanzanian peaberry.

A Brief Overview of the Political Situation in South Korea:

Since the coup that took place in South Korea on December 3 of last year, I have written several threads explaining the unfolding situation. I would like to once again provide a brief summary of the current state of affairs in South Korea.

But if the hegemon is deliberately breaking down those barriers, we might see clearer evidence of cross-domain reputation building or reactions to those kinds of reputations.

But a possible reason for this is that countries deliberately separated domains from one another (or the intl order incentivized the same). The US generally has not levied econ sanctions to get allies to burden share, in part bc we want the gains from trade should go to allies (Gowa 1994).

IR Theory: I believe there's some scholarly question about whether country/leader reputations cross domains. Does a weak rep for security commitment translate into a similarly weak one for trade?

Shuttering USIP? Although the Supreme Court shadow docket ruling on NLRB maybe "legalizes" this action? (tbc it's a horrific ruling.)

Then there's the dissonance between the UN's ideals and individual bureaucratic incentives. Turf wars galore over the most inconsequential iotas of authority and power.

Mentorship is really hit or miss in that environment. Some incredible people, plus some of the most venal and backstabby.

Imagine HR policy being set by the lowest common standard in the world. That's the UN.

Have a friend who used to work in internal investigations there. She'd describe inappropriate behavior, harassment, nudity...and then having no way to set or enforce standards.

Dark blue mug with United Nations logo in silver.

Today's mug: From when I was at the UN, the absolute worst place I've ever worked at. But this is a nice mug.

Drinking Espresso de noche coffee.

THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON July 7, 2025 His Excellency Ishiba Shigeru Prime Minister of Japan Tokyo Dear Mr. Prime Minister: It is a Great Honor for me to send you this letter in that it demonstrates the strength and commitment of our Trading Relationship, and the fact that the United States of America has agreed to continue working with Japan. despite having a significant Trade Deficit with your great Country. Nevertheless, we have decided to move forward with you, but only with more balanced, and fair, TRADE. Therefore, we invite you to participate in the extraordinary Economy of the United States, the Number One Market in the World. by far. We have had years to discuss our Trading Relationship with Japan, and have concluded that we must move away from these longterm, and very persistent, Trade Deficits engendered by Japan's Tariff, and Non Tariff, Policies and Trade Barriers. Our relationship has been, unfortunately, far from Reciprocal. Starting on August 1. 2025, we will charge Japan a Tariff of only 25% on any and all Japanese products sent into the United States, separate from all Sectoral Tariffs. Goods transshipped to evade a higher Tariff will be subject to that higher Tariff. Please understand that the 25% number is far less than what is needed to eliminate the Trade Deficit disparity we have with your Country. As you are aware, there will be no Tariff if Japan, or companies within your Country, decide to build or manufacture product within the United States and, in fact, we will do everything possible to get approvals quickly, professionally, and routinely — In other words, in a matter of weeks. If for any reason you decide to raise your Tariffs, then, whatever the number you choose to raise them by. will be added onto the 25% that we charge. Please understand that these Tariffs are necessary to correct the many years of Japan's Tariff, and Non Tariff, Policies and Trade Barriers, causing these unsustainable Trade Deficits against the United States. This…

2 We look forward to working with you as your Trading Partner for many years to come. If you wish to open your heretofore closed Trading Markets to the United States, and eliminate your Tariff, and Non Tariff, Policies and Trade Barriers, we will, perhaps. consider an adjustment to this letter. These Tariffs may be modified, upward or downward, depending on our relationship with your Country. You will never be disappointed with The United States of America. Thank you for your attention to this matter! With best wishes, I am. Sincerely. Auntienn

His Excellency Lee Jae-myung President of the Republic of Korea Seoul Dear Mr. President: It is a Great Honor for me to send you this letter in that it demonstrates the strength and commitment of our Trading Relationship, and the fact that the United States of America has agreed to continue working with Korea, despite having a significant Trade Deficit with your great Country. Nevertheless, we have decided to move forward with you, but only with more balanced, and fair. TRADE. Therefore, we invite you to participate in the extraordinary Economy of the United States, the Number One Market in the World. by far. We have had years to discuss our Trading Relationship with Korea, and have concluded that we must move away from these longterm. and very persistent, Trade Deficits engendered by Korea's Tariff, and Non Tariff, Policies and Trade Barriers. Our relationship has been, unfortunately, far from Reciprocal. Starting on August 1, 2025, we will charge Korea a Tariff of only 25% on any and all Korean products sent into the United States, separate from all Sectoral Tariffs. Goods transshipped to evade a higher Tariff will be subject to that higher Tariff. Please understand that the 25% number is far less than what is needed to eliminate the Trade Deficit disparity we have with your Country. As you are aware, there will be no Tariff if Korea, or companies within your Country, decide to build or manufacture product within the United States and, in fact. we will do everything possible to get approvals quickly, professionally, and routinely — In other words, in a matter of weeks. If for any reason you decide to raise your Tariffs, then, whatever the number you choose to raise them by. will be added onto the 25% that we charge. Please understand that these Tariffs are necessary to correct the many years of Korea's Tariff, and Non Tariff. Policies and Trade Barriers, causing these unsustainable Trade Deficits against the United States. This Deficit is a major threat to our Eco…

2 We look forward to working with you as your Trading Partner for many years to come. If you wish to open your heretofore closed Trading Markets to the United States, and eliminate your Tariff, and Non Tariff, Policies and Trade Barriers, we will, perhaps. consider an adjustment to this letter. These Tariffs may be modified, upward or downward, depending on our relationship with your Country. You will never be disappointed with The United States of America. Thank you for your attention to this matter! With best wishes, I am. Sincerely. Auntienn

Absolutely sucks that we’re having a trade war with Japan and South Korea, two incredible allies and trading partners who produce awesome goods that benefit Americans

My takeaway is that the big kahuna policy and research question is not marginal effect of more vs. less police (it does exist), but how to get existing police to submit to civilian command such that a commitment to do more police work in exchange for more funds is credible

Small white ceramic cup with tiny handle. Image of the Ngoc Son temple with a red love heart in the upper right corner.

Today's mug: For an afternoon pick me up, another handmade cup from Hanoi. The image is of Ngoc Son temple in the middle of the city. Store where I got the cup is around the lake from the temple.

Drinking a shot of espresso.

The Mamdani Columbia story is an example of a microgenre where ethnic communities have had complex internal conversations about identity for generations and white people pratfall into them to go "what the fuck, why are you trying to trick me"