David Taggart

they all are, until they are not

using the same data set-50 states+DC-we also look at if the state employment rates are above or below their 12-Month moving average and then tally them up. The top end is +51 and the bottom end is -51

Here is a chart showing how widespread and persistent the mediocrity of the jobs market has been.

We take all 50 states+DC and then look at if they are up or down versus 6 months ago. We then sum up the total and add it each month to create the state employment advance decline line.

my answer to the doomers is always "there is only one dude on the Forbes list who got there by being short, the other 399 were long, and most of them levered long, a mostly optimistic future"

but doomers wanna doom and think they will come out victors on the other side of it all lol

sounds like someone is going to democratize something lol

I suspect we get back to the historic average of 0.72 and probably overshoot it. And I don't think the obba changes that

“.. After one president who went senile in office and another who is nuttier than a Payday candy bar, we can only conclude that the 25th Amendment of the Constitution is just there for decoration.”

@nationalreview.bsky.social
www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-...

14.29% as of last night

Tfw you invest in a category-defining generational startup in a hotly contested private round that ends up fulfilling most/all its promises and then some… and yet you make less than half the return of the Nasdaq and don’t even keep up with the SPX a decade later

The SOX/SPX YoY A Semiconductor Cycle Leading Indicator The Semiconductor Cycle As with most sectors, especially those that manufacture physical goods, the semiconductor industry moves in cycles. We can see this well if we look at the semiconductor

I wrote a piece on an indicator-the SOX/SPX YoY-that I think is worth reading.

pdmacro.com/the-sox-spx-...

trying to recruit homeless people to help them with their plan, presumably for the invasion, is a hell of a plan. I can see a "inspired by true events" movie for this one.

he is not just a bad person. remember this piece? incredible shit from Larry Summer lol. he should have been banned from TV and media 20 years ago www.ft.com/content/7a55...

Went back searching in my tweets and I have been publicly bashing Larry Summers since at least 2012. Over time it evolved from not liking or trusting him at all to referring to him as a bag of shit.

Humilis Investment Strategies Independent investment management for private wealth and institutions — grounded in evidence, discipline, and 35+ years of expertise.

His new thing
humilisinv.com

Do Government Shutdowns Matter To Markets? Back during the 2013 shutdown I did a bit of work looking at how stocks did in shutdowns. After all we had not had another one in my working lifetime, and the way the media makes it seem they should

Did a piece on Gov Shutdowns looking at SP500, 10-yr, Gold, USD-DXY, and Crude

pdmacro.com/do-governmen...

and in case you have never seen it here is the PMI with the SPX YoY. You can see how this time has been the biggest dislocation between the two in decades

and kind of by extension it does a good job of leading the SP500

Longer term it has been a leading indicator of the PMI

The only "PMI" that matters right now

Semis and all things that go into that seem to still be the only game in town

At least tariffs created SOME jobs: lobbying jobs.

@bloomberg.com
@scottlincicome.bsky.social

here is the 30-Day sma of all the data we have on it. you can see the seasonality and also how it has normalized post-covid

here is the same data without the 10-day smoothing. +0.49%

I guess the TSA data entry kid is still at work.

The YoY of TSA passenger numbers is at +0.97%

yeah for midterms the healthcare thing isnt going to bring out the voters, at least not before they lose the benefits and with a year to go.

their current strategy is weak at best

Presumably with the government shut down no one in the file room is on staff to release the Epstein files.

at least that is my view from the cheap seats lol

the only failing our military has had post WW2 has been one of leadership in Washington.

They have defended the US quite well, and anywhere they go they dominate the skies and the seas with no real issue, and on the ground their kill ratio is off the charts.

tax consumers at the same time you ship out other consumers. hell of a strategy

Barron is the new CEO of ADP lol