Amelie Tolvin

Russia attacked kindergarten in Kharkiv. Russia’s daily terror across Ukraine continues.

Reconstructing Kremlin strategic deception: the logic of disinformation narratives during the first phase of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine Official Kremlin rhetoric about the ‘special military operation’ produces clashing, often contrasting interpretations of reality. This article applies perspectives from Soviet ideological language ...

"Understanding [Russia's] long-term patterns of strategic deception is essential in order to effectively counter" them. Important long read from @katri.bsky.social and @atolvin.bsky.social breaking down how Russia shapes outcomes through narratives over decades.

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Thanks, Keir!!

Our paper with @atolvin.bsky.social at #iccees2025 about Russia's strategic deception, will be published later this year!

They hit a subway station in Kyiv where people were hiding from explosions

The situation with Russians killing a toddler with a drone is especially despicable when you realize this wasn’t a stray artillery shell that landed 50 meters off, or a Shahed drone that hit a tall building, but an FPV drone, guided in real time by an operator watching it live

Ceasefire shmeasefire.

Air alert in Kyiv - threat of ballistic missile launches from east. Explosions reported in Kharkiv.

Ru ceasefires are always lies. Time for a broader audience to learn what Ukrainians have known for 11 yrs.

Foreign policy asks a fantastic question - why don’t Russian soldiers revolt. After all they all die.

Here is the answer. 1/

Russia killed at least 21 people in Sumy, northern Ukraine, today, on Palm Sunday. Two ballistic missiles hit the center of the city. More than 80 people are injured. This attack made absolutely no sense other than to terrorise civilians and to showcase Russia's impunity.

Thank you!

Thanks for sharing this! Looking forward to giving it a read.

Thank you so much!

Thank you!!!

Many thanks to @katri.bsky.social, @kaihko.bsky.social, and @keirgiles.bsky.social, who read this essay in its various stages, and especially to @seva.bsky.social, who generously read far too many drafts to count.

Why Don’t Russian Soldiers Revolt? Astonishing death rates and brutal abuse have not kept troops from following orders.

My first Foreign Policy essay is out - it examines the role of violence in Russia's military, which both creates docility in the face of meatgrinder tactics, and encourages increased violence towards fellow soldiers and Ukrainian prisoners of war and civilians. foreignpolicy.com/2025/04/09/r...

Why Don’t Russian Soldiers Revolt? Astonishing death rates and brutal abuse have not kept troops from following orders.

"Astonishing death rates and brutal abuse have not kept troops from following orders." - a brilliant piece by @atolvin.bsky.social at foreignpolicy.com/2025/04/09/r...

Thank you!!!

Why Don’t Russian Soldiers Revolt? Astonishing death rates and brutal abuse have not kept troops from following orders.

Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome @atolvin.bsky.social's debut piece in Foreign Policy, on how the ingrained violence of Russia's military system helps explain both acquiescence in the meatgrinder and atrocities toward its victims.

Keep writing please.

foreignpolicy.com/2025/04/09/r...

I don't care what side of the Israel-Palestine conflict your sympathies lie on, snatching up people with a valid student visa for the crime of writing an OpEd is naked fascism and if you don't oppose this you are a threat to this country's most basic values

this is just abjectly fucking terrifying

nobody should be disappeared because they wrote an op-ed

nobody should be disappeared at all

None of these crimes will stop if Russia manages to formally keep the occupied territories. On the contrary, they will escalate. Because they are not the product of the war per se but of Russia’s objective of erasing the Ukrainian nation as Ukrainians define it and imposing a ru-defined Ukr identity

On this International Women's Day, please consider donating to VETERANKA - a Ukrainian charity that helps women who serve in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and female veterans.
uwvm.org.ua/uk/

Total bully tactics by the US president and VP. This is not diplomacy. This is not neutrality. This is siding with the aggressor and trying to finish off the victim. President Zelensky was the only one in the room to behave with dignity.

Helsinki tonight

What does the future of the region look like if Russia succeeds in its war against Ukraine? Ryhor Nizhnikau states that it's bleak, and states will be faced with the choice of becoming vassal states (like Belarus), or to face extermination (like Ukraine).

On the US, Kseniya Oksamytna (@kseniyaoksamytna.bsky.social) tells us that it has shown that it thinks it can act alone in international affairs, without regard for its allies. She further argues that these actions show us that the Concert of Europe (!)'s diplomatic conventions are being revised

Ryhor Nizhnikau (@fiia.fi), in perhaps my favourite remarks of this roundtable, said that in terms of seeking a resolution to this war, Ukrainians have shown over the years that they are the only adults in the room.

What does a lasting peace look like for Ukraine? Katri Pynnöniemi (@katri.bsky.social) highlighted the significance of security guarantees, EU membership, and justice for war crimes committed by russia. Ultimately, however, a change is required IN russia for a just peace to occur.

I had the honour of chairing our second session on international security perspectives, with Katri Pynnöniemi (University of Helsinki and the National Defence University of Finland), Kseniya Oksamytna (City University of London), and Ryhor Nizhnikau (Finnish Institute of International Affairs)